There is a 39% chance of a Recession occurring this year

[Nostra]

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.

View attachment 1086267

Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Update, Luckyone

CPI report shows inflation rose at a 2.7% annual pace in November, cooler than expected

Economists had expected CPI to rise at an annual rate of 3% last month.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Andrew_Jackson_FTW]

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.

View attachment 1086267

Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

How did that work out.? The S&P 500 is up about 17% this year. But again you were saying this back in 2016 that the economy would collapse because of Trump.


Trumps market in all of his years in office has outperformed Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. Your posts on this topic are based on politics, not facts.

 

[luiza]

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.



Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Poor old Mucky .

Just as bad as his first Free Grift .

The actual odds lie between 97.5% and 99.99 %

But Mucky Bum is hardly the best person for any sort of advice .

 

[Papageorgio]

Will Trump cause a recession in 2025? Here’s what betting markets are predicting​

Polymarket, one the leading predictors, says there is a 37% chance America will slip into a recession in 2025. Kalshi, another leading predictor, says there’s a 42% chance. Both numbers have rise sharply in the past week.

Who or what is Polymarket?

Understanding Polymarket And Prediction Markets​

Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to how a thermometer measures current temperature rather than predicting it.

View attachment 1086267

Simply stated, Polymarket is not predicting anything, meaning that they cannot be accused of being biased. What they report is what the thinking is overall at this time, among the populace.

By the way, the Title says 39% chance and the link above says 37%. The reason for that is that the article is from November 24th and the 39% is from the current number given on their website: Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

You keep claiming this, are you thinking if you keep making dire predictions you will eventually be right? How is Zlab? You know, your gift to us? At $17.71 a share and you were recommending to buy it at $34 a share.Watching people lose money is a gift to us?