The Sound of Settled Science

[Billy_Bob]

I'm quite certain the IPCC and the thousands of degreed researchers whose work they assess know the difference between models and observation. That deniers should have universally adopted the strategy of rejecting all models is simply evidence that none of you are interested in the truth. There is no way to investigate what will happen in the future without use of a model. Certainly, a model can be wrong but the assumption that all models are wrong and that none have value is simply bullshit.

Send in the clowns... The IPCC is a three ring circus and nothing more..

 

[beautress]

​

 

[SSDD]

No matter what evidence I or anyone else have or will put up here, you will simply repeat the above bullshit mantra. AR1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are filled with thousands of pages of observed, measured evidence supporting the AGW theory over natural variability. You are a fool and a liar. AGW is real, accepted science.

You haven't put up any evidence that supports the AGW hypothesis over natural variability...you claim that it is there but when asked for just a single piece of it, you just can't do it...because it doesn't exist.

 

[SSDD]

I'm quite certain the IPCC and the thousands of degreed researchers whose work they assess know the difference between models and observation. That deniers should have universally adopted the strategy of rejecting all models is simply evidence that none of you are interested in the truth. There is no way to investigate what will happen in the future without use of a model. Certainly, a model can be wrong but the assumption that all models are wrong and that none have value is simply bullshit.

Funny, and pretty f'ing stupid, to be so certain when you have seen nothing like real evidence to support that certainty. The fact is, crick, that the hypothetical warming due to man's burning of hydrocarbon fuels, which is the foundation of AGW, has never actually been empirically measured, quantified and then attributed to GHG in any published, peer-reviewed scientific study to date. So exactly what is your certainty based upon?..and what might the certainty of all these "thousands" of degreed scientists be based on. Any scientists worth his degree might require some sort of actual evidence to support a hypothesis...especially a hypothesis regarding an entity as observable, and measurable as the atmosphere and radiation.

 

[Crick]

And, as predicted, you simply continue to lie.

 

[SSDD]

And, as predicted, you simply continue to lie.

Prove me wrong skid mark....lets see a single piece of observed, measured evidence that supports the AGW hypothesis over natural variability...or lets see the paper where the hypothetical warming due to man's burning of hydrocarbon fuels, which is the foundation of AGW, was empirically measured, quantified and then attributed to GHG.

You keep claiming all this evidence exists but don't seem to be able to bring any of it here. It is more than obvious that you are the liar crick..I am asking for evidence that you claim to have seen and yet, you don't seem to be able to bring it here.

We all know how much you would love to slap me down and prove that I am lying....well all you have to do is bring that one piece of evidence here, or provide a peer reviewed published paper...to prove me wrong...or you could continue your impotent, mewling, spew and yet again, show that I am, in fact, telling the truth and that you are full of shite.

 

[Crick]

You are an idiot, a fool and a liar.

Dozens and dozens of links to the following material and more have been provided over the past several years and yet SSDD and other simply claim it does not exist. Anyone taking SSDD and his ilk as references have been sorely misled.

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf, pag 159

Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

Executive Summary
The evidence of climate change from observations of the atmosphere and surface has grown significantly during recent years. At the same time new improved ways of characterizing and quantifying uncertainty have highlighted the challenges that remain for developing long-term global and regional climate quality data records. Currently, the observations of the atmosphere and surface indicate the following changes:

Atmospheric Composition
It is certain that atmospheric burdens of the well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) targeted by the Kyoto Protocol increased from 2005 to 2011. The atmospheric abundance of carbon dioxide (CO2) was 390.5 ppm (390.3 to 390.7)1 in 2011; this is 40% greater than in 1750. Atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) was 324.2 ppb (324.0 to 324.4) in 2011 and has increased by 20% since 1750. Average annual increases in CO2 and N2O from 2005 to 2011 are comparable to those observed from 1996 to 2005. Atmospheric methane (CH4) was 1803.2 ppb (1801.2 to 1805.2) in 2011; this is 150% greater than before 1750. CH4 began increasing in 2007 after remaining nearly constant from 1999 to 2006. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) all continue to increase relatively rapidly, but their contributions to radiative forcing are less than 1% of the total by well-mixed GHGs. {2.2.1.1}

For ozone-depleting substances (Montreal Protocol gases), it is certain that the global mean abundances of major chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are decreasing and HCFCs are increasing. Atmospheric burdens of major CFCs and some halons have decreased since 2005. HCFCs, which are transitional substitutes for CFCs, continue to increase, but the spatial distribution of their emissions is changing. {2.2.1.2}

Because of large variability and relatively short data records, confidence2 in stratospheric H2O vapour trends is low. Near-global satellite measurements of stratospheric water vapour show substantial variability but small net changes for 1992–2011. {2.2.2.1}

It is certain that global stratospheric ozone has declined from pre-1980 values. Most of the decline occurred prior to the mid 1990s; since then ozone has remained nearly constant at about 3.5% below the 1964–1980 level. {2.2.2.2}

Confidence is medium in large-scale increases of tropospheric ozone across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) since the 1970s Confidence is low in ozone changes across the Southern Hemisphere (SH) owing to limited measurements. It is likely3 that surface ozone trends in eastern North America and Western Europe since 2000 have levelled off or decreased and that surface ozone strongly increased in East Asia since the 1990s. Satellite and surface observations of ozone precursor gases NOx, CO, and non-methane volatile organic carbons indicate strong regional differences in trends. Most notably NO2 has likely decreased by 30 to 50% in Europe and North America and increased by more than a factor of 2 in Asia since the mid-1990s. {2.2.2.3, 2.2.2.4}

It is very likely that aerosol column amounts have declined over Europe and the eastern USA since the mid 1990s and increased over eastern and southern Asia since 2000. These shifting aerosol regional patterns have been observed by remote sensing of aerosol optical depth (AOD), a measure of total atmospheric aerosol load. Declining aerosol loads over Europe and North America are consistent with ground-based in situ monitoring of particulate mass. Confidence in satellite based global average AOD trends is low. {2.2.3}

Radiation Budgets
Satellite records of top of the atmosphere radiation fluxes have been substantially extended since AR4, and it is unlikely that significant trends exist in global and tropical radiation budgets since 2000. Interannual variability in the Earth’s energy imbalance related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is consistent with ocean heat content records within observational uncertainty. {2.3.2}

Surface solar radiation likely underwent widespread decadal changes after 1950, with decreases (‘dimming’) until the 1980s and subsequent increases (‘brightening’) observed at many land-based sites. There is medium confidence for increasing downward thermal and net radiation at land-based observation sites since the early 1990s. {2.3.3}

Temperature
It is certain that Global Mean Surface Temperature has increased since the late 19th century. Each of the past three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than all the previous decades in the instrumental record, and the first decade of the 21st century has been the warmest. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, over the period 1880–2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist, and about 0.72°C [0.49°C to 0.89°C] over the period 1951–2012. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003– 2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C and the total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the reference period for projections, 1986−2005, is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C, based on the single longest dataset available. For the longest period when calculation of regional trends is sufficiently complete (1901–2012), almost the entire globe has experienced surface warming. In addition to robust multidecadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and interannual variability. Owing to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade). Trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24], 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24] and 0.07 [–0.02 to 0.18], respectively. Several independently analyzed data records of global and regional land-surface air temperature (LSAT) obtained from station observations are in broad agreement that LSAT has increased. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have also increased. Intercomparisons of new SST data records obtained by different measurement methods, including satellite data, have resulted in better understanding of uncertainties and biases in the records. {2.4.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3; Box 9.2}

It is unlikely that any uncorrected urban heat-island effects and land use change effects have raised the estimated centennial globally averaged LSAT trends by more than 10% of the reported trend. This is an average value; in some regions with rapid development, urban heat island and land use change impacts on regional trends may be substantially larger. {2.4.1.3}

Confidence is medium in reported decreases in observed global diurnal temperature range (DTR), noted as a key uncertainty in the AR4. Several recent analyses of the raw data on which many previous analyses were based point to the potential for biases that differently affect maximum and minimum average temperatures. However, apparent changes in DTR are much smaller than reported changes in average temperatures and therefore it is virtually certain that maximum and minimum temperatures have increased since 1950. {2.4.1.2}

Based on multiple independent analyses of measurements from radiosondes and satellite sensors it is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the stratosphere has cooled since the mid-20th century. Despite unanimous agreement on the sign of the trends, substantial disagreement exists among available estimates as to the rate of temperature changes, particularly outside the NH extratropical troposphere, which has been well sampled by radiosondes. Hence there is only medium confidence in the rate of change and its vertical structure in the NH extratropical troposphere and low confidence elsewhere. {2.4.4}

Hydrological Cycle
Confidence in precipitation change averaged over global land areas since 1901 is low for years prior to 1951 and medium afterwards. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has likely increased since 1901 (medium confidence before and high confidence after 1951). For other latitudinal zones area-averaged long-term positive or negative trends have low confidence due to data quality, data completeness or disagreement amongst available estimates. {2.5.1.1, 2.5.1.2}

It is very likely that global near surface and tropospheric air specific humidity have increased since the 1970s. However, during recent years the near surface moistening over land has abated (medium confidence). As a result, fairly widespread decreases in relative humidity near the surface are observed over the land in recent years. {2.4.4, 2.5.4, 2.5.5}

While trends of cloud cover are consistent between independent data sets in certain regions, substantial ambiguity and therefore low confidence remains in the observations of global-scale cloud variability and trends. {2.5.6}

Extreme Events
It is very likely that the numbers of cold days and nights have decreased and the numbers of warm days and nights have increased globally since about 1950. There is only medium confidence that the length and frequency of warm spells, including heat waves, has increased since the middle of the 20th century mostly owing to lack of data or of studies in Africa and South America. However, it is likely that heatwave frequency has increased during this period in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. {2.6.1}

It is likely that since about 1950 the number of heavy precipitation events over land has increased in more regions than it has decreased. Confidence is highest for North America and Europe where there have been likely increases in either the frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation with some seasonal and/or regional variation. It is very likely that there have been trends towards heavier precipitation events in central North America. {2.6.2.1}

Confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and geographical inconsistencies in the trends. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, this masks important regional changes: the frequency and intensity of drought have likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950. {2.6.2.2}

Confidence remains low for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone activity, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. However, it is virtually certain that the frequency and intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic has increased since the 1970s. {2.6.3}

Confidence in large-scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is low owing to inconsistencies
between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). {2.6.4}

Because of insufficient studies and data quality issues confidence is also low for trends in small-scale severe weather events such as hail or thunderstorms. {2.6.2.4}

Atmospheric Circulation and Indices of Variability

It is likely that circulation features have moved poleward since the 1970s, involving a widening of the tropical belt, a poleward shift of storm tracks and jet streams, and a contraction of the northern polar vortex. Evidence is more robust for the NH. It is likely that the Southern Annular Mode has become more positive since the 1950s. {2.7.5, 2.7.6, 2.7.8; Box 2.5}

Large variability on interannual to decadal time scales hampers robust conclusions on long-term changes in atmospheric circulation in many instances. Confidence is high that the increase in the northern mid-latitude westerly winds and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from the 1950s to the 1990s and the weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation from the late 19th century to the 1990s have been largely offset by recent changes. {2.7.5, 2.7.8, Box 2.5}

Confidence in the existence of long-term changes in remaining aspects of the global circulation is low owing to observational limitations or limited understanding. These include surface winds over land, the East Asian summer monsoon circulation, the tropical cold-point tropopause temperature and the strength of the Brewer Dobson circulation. {2.7.2, 2.7.4, 2.7.5, 2.7.7}

 

[Crick]

Observations: Ocean

Executive Summary

Temperature and Heat Content Changes

It is virtually certain1 that the upper ocean (above 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010, and likely that it has warmed from the 1870s to 1971. Confidence in the assessment for the time period since 1971 is high2 based on increased data coverage after this date and on a high level of agreement among independent observations of subsurface temperature [3.2], sea surface temperature [2.4.2], and sea level rise, which is known to include a substantial component due to thermal expansion [3.7, Chapter 13]. There is less certainty in changes prior to 1971 because of relatively sparse sampling in earlier time periods. The strongest warming is found near the sea surface (0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade in the upper 75 m between 1971 and 2010), decreasing to about 0.015°C per decade at 700 m. It is very likely that the surface intensification of this warming signal increased the thermal stratification of the upper ocean by about 4% between 0 and 200 m depth. Instrumental biases in historical upper ocean temperature measurements have been identified and reduced since AR4, diminishing artificial decadal variation in temperature and upper ocean heat content, most prominent during the 1970s and 1980s. {3.2.1–3.2.3, Figures 3.1, 3.2 and 3.9}

It is likely that the ocean warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009, based on 5-year averages. It is likely that the ocean warmed from 3000 m to the bottom from 1992 to 2005, while no significant trends in global average temperature were observed between 2000 and 3000 m depth during this period. Warming below 3000 m is largest in the Southern Ocean {3.2.4, 3.5.1, Figures 3.2b and 3.3, FAQ 3.1}

It is virtually certain that upper ocean (0 to 700 m) heat content increased during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010. Published rates for that time period range from 74 TW to 137 TW, with generally smaller trends for estimates that assume zero anomalies in regions with sparse data. Using a statistical analysis of ocean variability to estimate change in sparsely sampled areas and to estimate uncertainties results in a rate of increase of global upper ocean heat content of 137 [120–154] TW (medium confidence). Although not all trends agree within their statistical uncertainties, all are positive, and all are statistically different from zero. {3.2.3, Figure 3.2}

Warming of the ocean between 700 and 2000 m likely contributed about 30% of the total increase in global ocean heat content (0 to 2000 m) between 1957 and 2009. Although globally
integrated ocean heat content in some of the 0 to 700 m estimates increased more slowly from 2003 to 2010 than over the previous decade, ocean heat uptake from 700 to 2000 m likely continued unabated during this period. {3.2.4, Figure 3.2, Box 9.2}

Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth’s energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents and atmosphere account for the remainder of the change in energy. The estimated net increase in the Earth’s energy storage between 1971 and 2010 is 274 [196 to 351] ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 Joules), with a heating rate of 213 TW from a linear fit to annual inventories over that time period, equivalent to 0.42 W m–2 heating applied continuously over the Earth’s entire surface, and 0.55 W m–2 for the portion due to ocean warming applied over the ocean surface area. {Section 3.2.3, Figure 3.2, Box 3.1}

Salinity and Freshwater Content Changes

It is very likely that regional trends have enhanced the mean geographical contrasts in sea surface salinity since the 1950s: saline surface waters in the evaporation-dominated midlatitudes have become more saline, while relatively fresh surface waters in rainfall-dominated tropical and polar regions have become fresher. The mean contrast between high- and lowsalinity regions increased by 0.13 [0.08 to 0.17] from 1950 to 2008. It is very likely that the interbasin contrast in freshwater content has increased: the Atlantic has become saltier and the Pacific and Southern oceans have freshened. Although similar conclusions were reached in AR4, recent studies based on expanded data sets and new analysis approaches provide high confidence in the assessment of trends in ocean salinity. {3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.5, Figures 3.4, 3.5 and 3.21d, FAQ 3.2}

It is very likely that large-scale trends in salinity have also occurred in the ocean interior. It is likely that both the subduction of surface water anomalies formed by changes in evaporation – precipitation (E – P) and the movement of density surfaces due to warming have contributed to the observed changes in subsurface salinity. {3.3.2–3.3.4, Figures 3.5 and 3.9}

The spatial patterns of the salinity trends, mean salinity and the mean distribution of E – P are all similar. This provides, with medium confidence, indirect evidence that the pattern of E – P over the oceans has been enhanced since the 1950s. {3.3.2–3.3.4, Figures 3.4, 3.5 and 3.20d, FAQ 3.2}.

Air–Sea Flux and Wave Height Changes

Uncertainties in air–sea heat flux data sets are too large to allow detection of the change in global mean net air-sea heat flux, of the order of 0.5 W m–2 since 1971, required for consistency with the observed ocean heat content increase. The products cannot yet be reliably used to directly identify trends in the regional or global distribution of evaporation or precipitation over the oceans on the time scale of the observed salinity changes since 1950. {3.4.2, 3.4.3, Figures 3.6 and 3.7}

Basin-scale wind stress trends at decadal to centennial time scales have been observed in the North Atlantic, Tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean with low to medium confidence. These results are based largely on atmospheric reanalyses, in some cases a single product, and the confidence level is dependent on region and time scale considered. The evidence is strongest for the Southern Ocean, for which there is medium confidence that zonal mean wind stress has increased in strength since the early 1980s. {3.4.4, Figure 3.8}

There is medium confidence based on ship observations and reanalysis forced wave model hindcasts that mean significant wave height has increased since the 1950s over much of the North Atlantic north of 45°N, with typical winter season trends of up to 20 cm per decade. {3.4.5}

Changes in Water Masses and Circulation

Observed changes in water mass properties likely reflect the combined effect of long-term trends in surface forcing (e.g., warming of the surface ocean and changes in E – P) and interannual-to-multi-decadal variability related to climate modes. Most of the observed temperature and salinity changes in the ocean interior can be explained by subduction and spreading of water masses with properties that have been modified at the sea surface. From 1950 to 2000, it is likely that subtropical salinity maximum waters became more saline, while fresh intermediate waters formed at higher latitude have generally become fresher. For Upper North Atlantic Deep Water changes in properties and formation rates are very likely dominated by decadal variability. The Lower North Atlantic Deep Water has likely cooled from 1955 to 2005, and the freshening trend highlighted in AR4 reversed in the mid-1990s. It is likely that the Antarctic Bottom Water warmed and contracted globally since the 1980s and freshened in the Indian/Pacific sectors from 1970 to 2008. {3.5, FAQ 3.1}

Recent observations have strengthened evidence for variability in major ocean circulation systems on time scales from years to decades. It is very likely that the subtropical gyres in the North Pacific and South Pacific have expanded and strengthened since 1993. It is about as likely as not that this is linked to decadal variability in wind forcing rather than being part of a longer-term trend. Based on measurements of the full Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its individual components at various latitudes and different time periods, there is no evidence of a long-term trend. There is also no evidence for trends in the transports of the Indonesian Throughflow, the AntarcticCircumpolar Current (ACC), or between the Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas. However, there is medium confidence that the ACC shifted south between 1950 and 2010, at a rate equivalent to about 1° of latitude in 40 years. {3.6, Figures 3.10, 3.11}

Sea Level Change

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m over the period 1901–2010, calculated using the mean rate over these 110 years, based on tide gauge records and since 1993 additionally on satellite data. It is very likely that the mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 2010 and increased to 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr–1 between 1993 and 2010. This assessment is based on high agreement among multiple studies using different methods, long tide gauge records corrected for vertical land motion and independent observing systems (tide gauges and altimetry) since 1993 (see also TFE.2, Figure 1). It is likely that GMSL rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010, as individual tide gauges around the world and reconstructions of GMSL show increased rates of sea level rise during this period. Rates of sea level rise over broad regions can be several times larger or smaller than that of GMSL for periods of several decades due to fluctuations in ocean circulation. High agreement between studies with and without corrections for vertical land motion suggests that it is very unlikely that estimates of the global average rate of sea level change are significantly biased owing to vertical land motion that has been unaccounted for. {3.7.2, 3.7.3, Table 3.1, Figures 3.12, 3.13, 3.14}

It is very likely that warming of the upper 700 m has been contributing an average of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8] mm yr–1 of sea level rise since 1971. It is likely that warming between 700 m and 2000 m has been contributing an additional 0.1 mm yr–1 [0 to 0.2] of sea level rise since 1971, and that warming below 2000 m has been contributing another 0.1 [0.0 to 0.2] mm yr–1 of sea level rise since the early 1990s. {3.7.2, Figure 3.13}

It is likely that the rate of sea level rise increased from the early 19th century to the early 20th century, and increased further over the 20th century. The inference of 19th century change is based on a small number of very long tide gauge records from northern Europe and North America. Multiple long tide gauge records and reconstructions of global mean sea level confirm a higher rate of rise from the late 19th century. It is likely that the average acceleration over the 20th century is [–0.002 to 0.019] mm yr–2, as two of three reconstructions extending back to at least 1900 show an acceleration during the 20th century. {3.7.4}

It is likely that the magnitude of extreme high sea level events has increased since 1970. A rise in mean sea level can explain most of the increase in extreme sea levels: changes in extreme high sea levels are reduced to less than 5 mm yr–1 at 94% of tide gauges once the rise in mean sea level is accounted for. {3.7.5, Figure 3.15}

Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry

Based on high agreement between independent estimates using different methods and data sets (e.g., oceanic carbon, oxygen, and transient tracer data), it is very likely that the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon (Cant ) increased from 1994 to 2010 . The oceanic Cant inventory in 2010 is estimated to be 155 PgC with an uncertainty of ±20%. The annual global oceanic uptake rates calculated from independent data sets (from oceanic Cant inventory changes, from atmospheric O 2/N 2 measurements or from partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2) data) and for different time periods agree with each other within their uncertainties and very likely are in the range of 1.0 to 3.2 PgC yr–1 {3.8.1, Figure 3.16}

Uptake of anthropogenic CO2 results in gradual acidification of the ocean. The pH of surface seawater has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era, corresponding to a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration (high confidence). The observed pH trends range between –0.0014 and –0.0024 yr–1 in surface waters. In the ocean interior, natural physical and biological processes, as well as uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 , can cause changes in pH over decadal and longer time scales. {3.8.2, Table 3.2, Box 3.2, Figures 3.18, 3.19, FAQ 3.3}

High agreement among analyses provides medium confidence that oxygen concentrations have decreased in the open ocean thermocline in many ocean regions since the 1960s. The general decline is consistent with the expectation that warming-induced stratification leads to a decrease in the supply of oxygen to the thermocline from near surface waters, that warmer waters can hold less oxygen, and that changes in wind-driven circulation affect oxygen concentra - tions. It is likely that the tropical oxygen minimum zones have expand - ed in recent decades. {3.8.3, Figure 3.20}

Synthesis

The observations summarized in this chapter provide strong evidence that ocean properties of relevance to climate have changed during the past 40 years, including temperature, salinity, sea level, carbon, pH, and oxygen. The observed patterns of change in the subsurface ocean are consistent with changes in the surface ocean in response to climate change and natural variability and with known physical and biogeochemical processes in the ocean, providing high confidence in this assessment. {3.9, Figures 3.21, 3.22}

 

[Crick]

Send in the clowns... The IPCC is a three ring circus and nothing more..

Here -in two parts - are the references - the published, peer-reviewed empirical studies on which only Chapter 2, "Observations: Surface and Atmosphere" of Working Group I's report: "The Physical Science Basis" is based. If I hear more crap like the line above or SSDD's charge that such data do not exist, I will give you the references for Chapter 3.

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Nicholls, 2009: Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 114, D18116. Alexander, L. V., X. L. L. Wang, H. Wan, and B. Trewin, 2011: Significant decline in storminess over southeast Australia since the late 19th century. Aust. Meteor. Ocean. J., 61, 23–30. Alexander, L. V., et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 111, D05109. Allan, R., and T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. J. Clim., 19, 5816–5842. Allan, R., S. Tett, and L. Alexander, 2009: Fluctuations in autumn-winter severe storms over the British Isles: 1920 to present. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 357–371. Allan, R. 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[Crick]

FOOTNOTES REGARDING PROBABILITIES

1) In this Report, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain 99–100% probability, Very likely 90–100%, Likely 66–100%, About as likely as not 33–66%, Unlikely 0–33%, Very unlikely 0-10%, Exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (Extremely likely: 95–100%, More likely than not >50–100%, and Extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see Section 1.4 and Box TS.1 for more details).

2) In this Report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence (see Section 1.4 and Box TS.1 for more details).

 

[Oddball]

 

[Crick]

Are you under the impression that a change in the Earth's temperature of, say, 1C would cause all temperatures all over the planet, throughout the year, to rise? That any temperature anywhere going down PROVES that global warming is not taking place?

If so, you're a ******* idiot.

 

[SSDD]

FOOTNOTES REGARDING PROBABILITIES

1) In this Report, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain 99–100% probability, Very likely 90–100%, Likely 66–100%, About as likely as not 33–66%, Unlikely 0–33%, Very unlikely 0-10%, Exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (Extremely likely: 95–100%, More likely than not >50–100%, and Extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see Section 1.4 and Box TS.1 for more details).

2) In this Report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence (see Section 1.4 and Box TS.1 for more details).

Like I have been saying...no observed, measured evidence that supports AGW over natural variability....no observed, measured evidence that establishes a coherent link between the absorption of IR by a gas and warming in the atmosphere and no published, peer reviewed paper where the hypothesized warming due to mankind's burins of hydrocarbon fuels, which is the foundation of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis has never been empirically measured, quantified, and then attributed to so called green house gasses.

Care to point out any of those in the steaming pile you brought forward? Didn't think so.

It is, as always, good to see what passes for actual evidence in that weak little mind of yours...it serves to illustrate how you were duped so easily.

 

[Crick]

It is, as always, disappointing to see you continue to lie to our faces.

 

[SSDD]

It is, as always, disappointing to see you continue to lie to our faces.

Speaking of bald faced liars...you posted that big steaming pile of excrement claiming that it contained published, observed, empirical evidence of AGW...I read it and pointed out that it wasn't there, with the caveat that I might have missed something and asked you to point out where such evidence was...or observed evidence that supported AGW over natural variability, or observed evidence that supported a coherent link between the absorption of IR by a gas, and warming in the atmosphere...

I can't help but note that you can't do it even when the steaming pile is right there in front of your face...You have either been lying all this time about the evidence being in the IPCC paper, or you are so stupid that you don't have any idea what actual observed, measured evidence supporting one hypothesis over another looks like, or you are so dim and your bar for evidence is so low, that you think it is actually in there.

In any case, you claimed it was there, you posted it here and you have yet to point out anything there that even begins to answer my request...laughing in your face skidmark...

Whats the matter skidmark...cant bear to admit that it isn't there and never was?

 

[Old Rocks]

View attachment 226049

Asshole, have you nothing of substance to contribute to the debate? Thus far, all you have been is a brainless troll, worth no respect at all. The science is settled. The absorption spectra of the GHG's was first measured one hundred and sixty years ago. The prediction of Arrhenious, made in 1896, are being borne out. The predictions of Dr. James Hansen, made in the 1980's, are spot on, and, if anything, are a bit conservative.

 

[Crick]

It is, as always, disappointing to see you continue to lie to our faces.

Speaking of bald faced liars...you posted that big steaming pile of excrement claiming that it contained published, observed, empirical evidence of AGW...I read it and pointed out that it wasn't there, with the caveat that I might have missed something and asked you to point out where such evidence was...or observed evidence that supported AGW over natural variability, or observed evidence that supported a coherent link between the absorption of IR by a gas, and warming in the atmosphere...

I can't help but note that you can't do it even when the steaming pile is right there in front of your face...You have either been lying all this time about the evidence being in the IPCC paper, or you are so stupid that you don't have any idea what actual observed, measured evidence supporting one hypothesis over another looks like, or you are so dim and your bar for evidence is so low, that you think it is actually in there.

In any case, you claimed it was there, you posted it here and you have yet to point out anything there that even begins to answer my request...laughing in your face skidmark...

Whats the matter skidmark...cant bear to admit that it isn't there and never was?

Did you fail to note the references I posted? No, you saw them. You just don't want to talk about them. I've never met anyone in my entire life that lies as much or as easily as do you. I think you actually lie more than Trump.

 

[Crick]

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O 2 and CO 2 composition | Nature

New study in Nature showing ocean heating to be at the upper range of previous estimates. Among other things, this raises the lower end of the range of estimated equilibrium climate sensitivity from 1.5C back to 2.0C.

 

[SSDD]

Did you fail to note the references I posted? No, you saw them. You just don't want to talk about them. I've never met anyone in my entire life that lies as much or as easily as do you. I think you actually lie more than Trump.

Yes...I saw them...and noted that you didn't point out anything there either...just reverences which were used to produce the steaming pile you posted which had not one shred of the sort of evidence I asked for, which you had been claiming for years was there...

You lied skidmark...you lied over and over and over for years and years...it isn't there...and it never was.