The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[saveliberty]

Sitting on the QQQ waiting for Monday. That and some silver and gold accounts I bought Friday for a 27% discount over Thursday's close.

 

[Zander]

Gold is continuing it's downward slide.....is already down to $1615/oz this morning.

 

[Vinson]

Develop countries did not stop the heavy unnecessary expenses like war because these are great reason of
depression and it create bad impact on economy. If they stop expense they overcome depression and problem.

 

[Toro]

Often times, when the market is in meltdown mode, Mondays are really bad, especially when Fridays close on the low, and the open on Tuesday continues the downward trend. Then, around mid-day on Tuesday, the market reverses and there is a violent reversal to the upside.

I don't know if that will happen today or not. I can't give you any fundamental reason to buy stocks, other than "the economy isn't falling apart - yet." However, sentiment is terrible, which means we could be setting up for a good bounce.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Often times, when the market is in meltdown mode, Mondays are really bad, especially when Fridays close on the low, and the open on Tuesday continues the downward trend. Then, around mid-day on Tuesday, the market reverses and there is a violent reversal to the upside.

I don't know if that will happen today or not. I can't give you any fundamental reason to buy stocks, other than "the economy isn't falling apart - yet." However, sentiment is terrible, which means we could be setting up for a good bounce.

You would have to have a genie in a bottle to predict the markets right now.
I don't give a hoot who it is - or what their reasoning is - the markets since the beginning of September have of course been insane.

My take...and I think it is as good as anyone's - a fall is on the horizon that will be reminiscent of 2008...probably not as severe, but serious.
The market is on a clear bubble, evident as the face in the mirror. It was a matter of time as soon as this current bubble began in 2009. There are certainly signs that we are dangling over the edge...eh?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Edit...up...I'll take that back...Bernanke came out and said the FED is standing by to "do whatever is necessary"..which will make the markets probably end up at plus 100 for the day.
In other words...he will do what it takes to maintain the bubble and place even more debt on the U.S. Treasury and warning legislators that they should not do anything at all. Just keep ignoring the debt so the highest earners in America can maintain their earnings.

Argue with that.

 

[Toro]

As I thought might happen, the Dow ripped up higher into the close, rallying nearly 400 points in the last hour. I took all my shorts off early afternoon. Whether it has any staying power, that remains to be seen.

Such rip-your-face-off rallies are common in bear markets. I wouldn't be surprised if this went on for a few more days. But I think, until proven otherwise, all rallies are to be sold or shorted.

 

[JimBowie1958]

As I thought might happen, the Dow ripped up higher into the close, rallying nearly 400 points in the last hour. I took all my shorts off early afternoon. Whether it has any staying power, that remains to be seen.

It wont last. Read the rally was based on two false rumors, that Dexia will be rescued by Belgium (even if it does, it wont matter as Belgium drown in read along with Dexia) and that the ECB is going to recapitalize the banks, which is simply not going to happen ans none of the states have enough cash to do the job.

Such rip-your-face-off rallies are common in bear markets. I wouldn't be surprised if this went on for a few more days. But I think, until proven otherwise, all rallies are to be sold or shorted.

Might till the next shoe hits the ground in the gradual disentigration of the Euro.

 

[william the wie]

At some point the disintegration of the Euro will not be gradual.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Interesting...I was looking at the wild daily swings in the past 5 weeks.
So I wondered if this happened in 2007....and whalaah...it did. In the 2 months prior to the crash the markets look strangely similar.

 

[Trajan]

I was listening to john batchelor on the way in this morning. he had aside from Kudlow which he does every tuesday night, steven russolillo from the dow jones, hes a pretty sharp guy, he says the whole run back to positive territory yesterday was due to a very short not very well documented blurb released in Europe on Dexia et al, will be saved by a coordinated effort, his point there was absolute nothing new really and it was one of the biggest back pedal panics he’d ever seen based especially, on virtually nothing.

The herd wanted to hear something, so they did and ran back the other direction by a huge margin....great, the take away being- those speedy dopey dinosaurs running away from the T Tex, they got away with it this time , but, next time they will get eaten when the rumors and or news is negative and the dancing to the ‘electric slide’ starts.

Damn I used to have it bookmarked, what are the bullshit auto stops again in the market?

 

[Trajan]

Ah found it...

one would think if it has to get to the point where on they have to stop the machine because they cannot control it, they would just discontinue it.

 

[Toro]

If you believe the profit margins, stocks are very attractive here from a long term perspective. The median price earnings ratio of the Russell 3000 is 12x, well below the long term average of 15x.

However, I think PEs will get to single digits and I don't know if I think the margins are real.

 

[william the wie]

If you believe the profit margins, stocks are very attractive here from a long term perspective. The median price earnings ratio of the Russell 3000 is 12x, well below the long term average of 15x.

However, I think PEs will get to single digits and I don't know if I think the margins are real.

Toro net retiree dissavings will keep getting worse until 2023. I don't think the rules of thumb since 1939 are of any value at all in this market.

 

[Zander]

Personally, I think anyone that is invested in stocks (either long or short) right now is a fool. Why play with fire? I am content to sit in cash and short term treasuries. I may not earn much, but I won't lose much either. There will be a time to buy, now is not it.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Personally, I think anyone that is invested in stocks (either long or short) right now is a fool. Why play with fire? I am content to sit in cash and short term treasuries. I may not earn much, but I won't lose much either. There will be a time to buy, now is not it.

When the credit from the financial giants evaporates, it wont matter what the previous quarterly employment stats are, or if the stock markets had huge rallies several times just before the credit blew away.

If the Big Banks fail and the government does not step in to bridge the gap then credit will evaporate for sure to miniscule levels.

From existing data it would seem that the Euro banks will be dragged down by Greek defaults setting off a chain of other banks failing, and that will spill over to the US and Asia as well.

This is an easy call as the underlying bad credit caused by bad sub-prime mortgages is growing exponentially, as I undrstand it.

 

[usmcstinger]

Jumping in and out of the market is not the way to make money.

It is time in the market not timing the market.

 

[mal]

Stock Market is Climbing and Gold is Slipping... Just as I had Planned it.

Let's talk again this time next year.



peace...

 

[mal]

Gold has trended downward about 20% since last fall... If you wait it out, this Correction will complete and you will sit on your gold for a Generation just like those who held out in 1983 did...

2013 is 1983... And it's already started.



peace...

 

[JimBowie1958]

Off Drudge Report

Debt crisis: Greek euro exit looms closer as banks crumble - Telegraph


Eurozone debt crisis: Fears of 'panic' as investors pull out 1.4billion euro in two days | Mail Online


Cost of Greek exit from euro put at $1tn | Business | The Guardian


'Vulture funds' circle as Greece fears grow - Business News - Business - The Independent