The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread
- Thread starter Toro
- Start date
Zander
Platinum Member
Hurry Hurry!! see if you can catch the falling knife!!!Here is one I am watching like you read about... CLF
Hit 52 week low today..earnings out tomorrow.
Watch the volume and see if you can't get some at a bargain.
- Thread starter
- #383
I'd be careful with that trade. it seems so reasonable and logical that it is sure to fail. After all, how much lower can Treasury yields go?
I'd do the exact opposite. Short stocks, especially high quality, low beta, stocks with good dividend yields, and go long treasuries and cash.
Depends on your time frame.
The Treasury market reminds me a lot - A LOT - of tech stocks in 1999 or housing in 2006. Real yields are negative across most of the curve, which is tantamount to paying 100x earnings for Cisco in 99 or $400k for that 1 bedroom condo in San Diego in 06.
The people who've been arguing for deflation have been wrong. We don't have deflation in the US, and most of the deflationary forces have passed us by. We do have deflationary forces in the periphery of Europe, but not in the core. So to argue for shorting Treasuries here is to argue for technicals and continued manipulation by the Fed, not fundamentals. That can last for awhile. Maybe the 30 year can go to 2%, who knows? A lesson I've learned is that things can go for much longer, much farther than one might think is reasonable. But eventually, the laws of economics win out in the end. That's why Treasury bond prices will be much lower a decade out than they are today.
Valerie
Platinum Member
- Sep 17, 2008
- 31,521
- 7,392
- 1,170
Hurry Hurry!! see if you can catch the falling knife!!!Here is one I am watching like you read about... CLF
Hit 52 week low today..earnings out tomorrow.
Watch the volume and see if you can't get some at a bargain.
It's not easy but if you're patient, the volume always tells the tale in the end...
- Thread starter
- #385
I am not bullish on commodity stocks. I think commodity stocks will be among the worst performers over the next 10 years. Maybe not the next 10 months, but I think it won't be a place for the long-term.
Valerie
Platinum Member
- Sep 17, 2008
- 31,521
- 7,392
- 1,170
The strong dollar has weakened commodities but IMO it is going to take a few years to play out. Individual equities will show their bottom if you pay attention, is all I'm saying...
Zander
Platinum Member
I'd be careful with that trade. it seems so reasonable and logical that it is sure to fail. After all, how much lower can Treasury yields go?
I'd do the exact opposite. Short stocks, especially high quality, low beta, stocks with good dividend yields, and go long treasuries and cash.
Depends on your time frame.
The Treasury market reminds me a lot - A LOT - of tech stocks in 1999 or housing in 2006. Real yields are negative across most of the curve, which is tantamount to paying 100x earnings for Cisco in 99 or $400k for that 1 bedroom condo in San Diego in 06.
The people who've been arguing for deflation have been wrong. We don't have deflation in the US, and most of the deflationary forces have passed us by. We do have deflationary forces in the periphery of Europe, but not in the core. So to argue for shorting Treasuries here is to argue for technicals and continued manipulation by the Fed, not fundamentals. That can last for awhile. Maybe the 30 year can go to 2%, who knows? A lesson I've learned is that things can go for much longer, much farther than one might think is reasonable. But eventually, the laws of economics win out in the end. That's why Treasury bond prices will be much lower a decade out than they are today.
We'll have to agree to disagree about deflation.
I agree that over the long term, interest rates will rise and Treasuries will be hammered. But that may be a LONG time from now. Why fight the trend? Thank God I don't need to trade for a living - it's a tough gig. Best of luck to you Toro!
- Thread starter
- #388
Also, the reason why I think there is one more swoosh down is because I think the end game to all this is a currency crisis. We are in the midst of one in Europe. I think Japan will be next, and maybe - maybe - we will have one in America.
If we have one here, people will discover that Treasuries are NOT safe. Even though most professionals are bearish on Treasuries - which gives me pause over my own bearishness - at the end of the day, they rush to Treasuries for protection.
It is an axiom that at the end of a bull market, they shoot all survivors. We have been in a 30 year bull market in Treasury bonds. At the end of a bull market, they will shoot Treasuries too, especially if there is a dollar crisis. There is no reason to expect that the bull market in Treasuries won't end any differently than the bull market in tech stocks or housing.
A bet on Treasuries is an implicit bet on the dollar. If we have a dollar crisis, there will be violent moves in the Treasuries as investors realize the last safe haven is no longer safe, and the moves will be unlike anything we've seen before. I don't know if that will happen - I give it maybe a 30% chance - but that is higher than what most market participants believe.
If we have one here, people will discover that Treasuries are NOT safe. Even though most professionals are bearish on Treasuries - which gives me pause over my own bearishness - at the end of the day, they rush to Treasuries for protection.
It is an axiom that at the end of a bull market, they shoot all survivors. We have been in a 30 year bull market in Treasury bonds. At the end of a bull market, they will shoot Treasuries too, especially if there is a dollar crisis. There is no reason to expect that the bull market in Treasuries won't end any differently than the bull market in tech stocks or housing.
A bet on Treasuries is an implicit bet on the dollar. If we have a dollar crisis, there will be violent moves in the Treasuries as investors realize the last safe haven is no longer safe, and the moves will be unlike anything we've seen before. I don't know if that will happen - I give it maybe a 30% chance - but that is higher than what most market participants believe.
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- Feb 12, 2007
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You'll love this. The Hegemony want to prevent the Small Folks "Return of Capital"
Two years ago, in January 2010, Zero Hedge wrote "This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied" which became one of our most read stories of the year. The reason? Perhaps something to do with an implicit attempt at capital controls by the government on one of the primary forms of cash aggregation available: $2.7 trillion in US money market funds. The proximal catalyst back then were new proposed regulations seeking to pull one of these three core pillars (these being no volatility, instantaneous liquidity, and redeemability) from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7. A key proposal would give money market fund managers the option to "suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets." In other words: an attempt to prevent money market runs (the same thing that crushed Lehman when the Reserve Fund broke the buck). ...
This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied - The Sequel | ZeroHedge
- Thread starter
- #390
We'll have to agree to disagree about deflation.
I agree that over the long term, interest rates will rise and Treasuries will be hammered. But that may be a LONG time from now. Why fight the trend? Thank God I don't need to trade for a living - it's a tough gig. Best of luck to you Toro!
I am happy that the trade has worked out for you. And I am 75% in cash, which means I am implicitly long Treasury bills.
But there is no deflation Zander. Our deflation was in housing prices and the collapse of the debt markets. The only potential remaining deflationary force is the federal government. If the federal government decides to start slashing spending and borrowing less, then that will be deflationary. But the housing market has gone through most, if not all of its decline, and most of the bad mortgage debt has been expunged from the system.
Like I said many years ago, bet on the guys with the printing press. And the guys with the printing press are the reason why your long position in Treasuries has done so well. I can't game politics. That's why I've sucked over the past 18 months - so much of the moves have been because of politics. If the Fed stopped buying Treasuries, Treasuries would get crushed. Buying Treasuries here, you are betting on the Fed continuing to implement QE indefinitely. To me, that's a dangerous game, though it seems likely to continue for awhile. I can't tell you exactly when they will stop buying, but it will happen one day, and it won't be pretty.
Then there is the scandal about the 2 commodity trading houses losing over 200 million of investors money. As in it was supposed to be deposited in the bank but was not there.
Trajan
conscientia mille testes
Agreed, the dollar will melt a bit gold has another good jump and commodities in this environment don't make sense to me. That's my barroom prophecy
That laundry list of yours is pretty close to mine, except PEP, one of my favs, its my second largset holding, been buying in spurts for a decade, plus jnj, PG and intel are my hole cards so to speak, I am waiting for WMT to drop back 10 % then I am in. That will probably be my last major move aside from dumping my gold before I retire.
- Thread starter
- #393
I've gotten to the point where I don't care a whole lot about what the market does over the short term. It has become impossible to trade, given that so much of it is driven by obscure events in Europe as well as any rumours about QE round 427, or whatever the fuck it is now. The only reason why the Dow popped 100 points in the last hour today is because of a WSJ article about yet more Fed intervention. Frankly, I think its pathetic. Monetary policy in this country has become a joke. The only time the market has gone up is when QE has been in play.
What's absolutely amazing to me is how easy it would have been to make money in retrospect. We are in the third year of the exact same playbook. The economy is grinding to a halt in the summer so the Fed jumps to the rescue with (puke) QE. The market rises in the Fall and early winter. Come April and May, QE is on the verge of ending, news that Greece can't pay its bills, and the economy is nose-diving in the summer. And so on. This is the third year in a row when this has played out. You are taught that it can't be this fucking easy! Yet, it is! As a citizen, I am disgusted by what is going on. As a trader and investor, I can only adapt to my environment and take the opportunities the market provides.
What's absolutely amazing to me is how easy it would have been to make money in retrospect. We are in the third year of the exact same playbook. The economy is grinding to a halt in the summer so the Fed jumps to the rescue with (puke) QE. The market rises in the Fall and early winter. Come April and May, QE is on the verge of ending, news that Greece can't pay its bills, and the economy is nose-diving in the summer. And so on. This is the third year in a row when this has played out. You are taught that it can't be this fucking easy! Yet, it is! As a citizen, I am disgusted by what is going on. As a trader and investor, I can only adapt to my environment and take the opportunities the market provides.
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Trajan
conscientia mille testes
Hurry Hurry!! see if you can catch the falling knife!!!Here is one I am watching like you read about... CLF
Hit 52 week low today..earnings out tomorrow.
Watch the volume and see if you can't get some at a bargain.
Since we are getting all Cramered out here,
one for you;Sdrl.....it's the future, price is setup in the middle of its 52 week frame, well managed co. No, I am not gonna tell you, go look it up
Zander
Platinum Member
Hurry Hurry!! see if you can catch the falling knife!!!Here is one I am watching like you read about... CLF
Hit 52 week low today..earnings out tomorrow.
Watch the volume and see if you can't get some at a bargain.
Since we are getting all Cramered out here,
No, I am not gonna tell you, go look it up
Mr. McGuire: I just want to say one word to you. Just one word.
Benjamin: Yes, sir.
Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?
Benjamin: Yes, I am.
Mr. McGuire: Plastics.
Plastics!!
- Thread starter
- #396
Hurry Hurry!! see if you can catch the falling knife!!!Here is one I am watching like you read about... CLF
Hit 52 week low today..earnings out tomorrow.
Watch the volume and see if you can't get some at a bargain.
Since we are getting all Cramered out here,
No, I am not gonna tell you, go look it up
I met a guy a few weeks ago who used to work for Cramer. He said that when he first started, he walked off the desk and Cramer almost ran into him as he was making his way back from the washroom. Literally, "ran" into him. Cramer literally ran from the desk to wherever he was going. Cramer told the guy that "why would you waste time walking?" After I was done talking to him, the guy ran - ran - out of the room and back to his desk.
william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,410
- 280
Everyone is talking about deflation as if it were strange but what is Moore's Law but structural deflation in IT. What is Jonas Fisher's embedded capital but structural deflation in capital equipment. Productivity increases are deflation and productivity is increasing where does this no deflation meme come from?
Dante
"The Libido for the Ugly"
Everything will be okay.
JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
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But since about 1910 we have seen new technologies spawn new industries quickly enough that there was always some new inefficient industry that needed loads of people that we supplied from our unemployed.
Today the dominant hiring in proffessional industries is in the form of H1-Bs and other suppressed wage labor sources. The primary bread earner that allows for disretionary income for most families is hit the hardest and so the consumer market shrinks. Our birth rate also contracts our consumer market in the long term, with a 25 year delay in effect.
We discuss these economic signals but the underlying problem runs much deeper into cultural and demographic origins.
mal
Diamond Member
Happy August a year later... How's the Market?
I know Gold dropped from over 1,900 last fall to where is currently hovering since @ around 1,600...
Look for it to shit the bed like 83 in 13.
peace...
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