The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

[zonly1]

The US Dollar is actually on the rise!

Gold, Acting Like A Commodity, Plummets In The Face Of A Rising Dollar


Global markets have broken down after Bernanke said the economy faces significant downside risks. Interestingly, gold plummeted along with other risk assets, despite its traditional “safe-haven” status, which generally benefits from bouts of fear and volatility. The underlying reason? A rallying U.S. dollar.

Gold, Acting Like A Commodity, Plummets In The Face Of A Rising Dollar - Forbes

Dollar up and gas down..let's hope it may continue. Obama's do dumb to realize the significance.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I was just chekin and some of my proof eagles are selling for around 3,000 !

If I had Gold I would have already sold it by now.
I have a colleague who is one of those guys...plays stupid lottery scratch-offs and wins $50 like every week or something...goes to Vegas and comes back $3000 ahead - just a guy that always lands on top.
Anyhow...he put $25,000 in gold back in the early 2000's...he sold it all early last month.

 

[editec]

I have a boatload of money waiting on below 10,000...can't believe it hasn't happened yet. The freaking bulls have been fighting tooth and nail to hold onto this bubble...been waiting for over a year now.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent "

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

[editec]

Hey look at that!

A flock of cygnus atratus!

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf

READ IT!

Clearly some of you already have, or perhaps some of you autodidacts already intuited that we are living in an age of cygnus atratus.

Still I greatly admire those of you with the stones to play the market.

WEre I in a position to play, I would not know whether to shit or go blind, right now.

Good luck boys and girls, I hope ya'll make a killing.

But if you do, and you are NOT humble about it?

Then sooner or later that black swan is going to shit all over you.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Hey look at that!

A flock of cygnus atratus!

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf

READ IT!

Clearly some of you already have, or perhaps some of you autodidacts already intuited that we are living in an age of cygnus atratus.

Still I greatly admire those of you with the stones to play the market.

WEre I in a position to play, I would not know whether to shit or go blind, right now.

Good luck boys and girls, I hope ya'll make a killing.

But if you do, and you are NOT humble about it?

Then sooner or later that black swan is going to shit all over you.

That is the problem. The markets used to be a dependable place to put your money to not only protect it from inflation, but make a sizable nest egg over the course of several decades.
Not anymore.
Now you have a flock of wasp and sharks.... people desiring to make a decade worth of investment interest - overnight. Today conventional investors are completely outnumbered by these frenzy traders. The result is a market that has no bearing on reality.

 

[Toro]

I've changed my mind. I sold my positions at a loss (like much of my trading this year).

I still expect a bounce but am not interested in playing it. I will look to short any bounces.

I am officially freaked out, and plan on going home and drinking.

 

[Valerie]

I've changed my mind. I sold my positions at a loss (like much of my trading this year).

I still expect a bounce but am not interested in playing it. I will look to short any bounces.

I am officially freaked out, and plan on going home and drinking.

I bailed too! Cheers!





Please make a showing at EZ's party later! We need some studs!

http://www.usmessageboard.com/echo-zulus-rep-fest-zone/186371-the-wedding-shower.html#post4180508

 

[Wiseacre]

I've changed my mind. I sold my positions at a loss (like much of my trading this year).

I still expect a bounce but am not interested in playing it. I will look to short any bounces.

I am officially freaked out, and plan on going home and drinking.

I bailed too! Cheers!





Please make a showing at EZ's party later! We need some studs!

http://www.usmessageboard.com/echo-zulus-rep-fest-zone/186371-the-wedding-shower.html#post4180508

Me 3, I couldn't take it any more. I shall lift a cold one to both of you in hopes of better days.

 

[Jos]

Paper Gold and silver positions were sold, the bigger the drop the better the bounce, jos who is buying, buying,and buying (physical)

 

[Zander]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

 

[JWBooth]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

We can only hope this continues...

 

[Toro]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

The forces in the economy are deflationary. The responses are inflationary. The responses are now handcuffed as the Fed is impotent and DC incapable. We may be living 1937 all over again.

Deflation in this country has basically run its course. It has not elsewhere, however.

As for gold, I respect the collapse COMPLETELY. But we've had three other similar downward moves of 9% or more over two days like we've had this week since this bull market began a decade ago. It MAY be the end of the gold bull market but it does not have the typical metrics one would normally associate with the end of a bull market.

In the meantime, I am very worried, and am sitting almost entirely in cash. The small amount of stocks I own are hedged. I expect a bounce then new lows. If we don't bounce, look out.

 

[saveliberty]

I went to silver and gold EFTs in my CNBC challenge today.

 

[uscitizen]

I was just chekin and some of my proof eagles are selling for around 3,000 !

If I had Gold I would have already sold it by now.
I have a colleague who is one of those guys...plays stupid lottery scratch-offs and wins $50 like every week or something...goes to Vegas and comes back $3000 ahead - just a guy that always lands on top.
Anyhow...he put $25,000 in gold back in the early 2000's...he sold it all early last month.

I put close to 200k in eagles at around 550 each a few years before the crash. I forget when exactly would have to check. I bought from a private individual.

then shortly before the crach I liquidated my stocks for a nice profit and bought more eagles.
I forget around 200k more.
Seems like I paid more like 650-700 for them that time.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

The forces in the economy are deflationary. The responses are inflationary. The responses are now handcuffed as the Fed is impotent and DC incapable. We may be living 1937 all over again.

Deflation in this country has basically run its course. It has not elsewhere, however.

As for gold, I respect the collapse COMPLETELY. But we've had three other similar downward moves of 9% or more over two days like we've had this week since this bull market began a decade ago. It MAY be the end of the gold bull market but it does not have the typical metrics one would normally associate with the end of a bull market.

In the meantime, I am very worried, and am sitting almost entirely in cash. The small amount of stocks I own are hedged. I expect a bounce then new lows. If we don't bounce, look out.

It is past time that Wall Street reflects reality. Which is normal.
I want the market to go below 10000...then I am all in.

 

[Zander]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

The forces in the economy are deflationary. The responses are inflationary. The responses are now handcuffed as the Fed is impotent and DC incapable. We may be living 1937 all over again.

Deflation in this country has basically run its course. It has not elsewhere, however.

As for gold, I respect the collapse COMPLETELY. But we've had three other similar downward moves of 9% or more over two days like we've had this week since this bull market began a decade ago. It MAY be the end of the gold bull market but it does not have the typical metrics one would normally associate with the end of a bull market.

In the meantime, I am very worried, and am sitting almost entirely in cash. The small amount of stocks I own are hedged. I expect a bounce then new lows. If we don't bounce, look out.

I mostly agree with you (*except that I don't think deflation has run it's course) and I too am entirely in cash and short term treasuries. I expect stocks to trend lower, much much lower than anyone can imagine.

Here's what I find odd - Gold & silver are supposed to be safe havens, right? Why, then - after the hard fall in stocks - are gold and silver also falling? Gold just had its worst day in 5 years, and silver fell 18% -- its 2nd largest daily point decline in modern history. Can you say bubble? Gold has risen at 4x the rate of the CPI and would need to fall to $500 an ounce to reflect the rise in consumer prices.

Will Gold & silver (and stocks) continue to head straight down? I doubt it, the market is much more clever than that! After sharp drops the market rises slowly, sucking investors in, purring like an innocent kitten......"the water is fine, nice and calm....no sharks here". After enough time goes by people get enticed by the fun and wade back in the waters.........then WHAM!!!! A rogue wave hits and a shark attacks. This scenario is likely to play out several times before the bear market bottoms.

PS- A few weeks ago there was 98% bullish sentiment at trade-futures.com and the president of the World Bank opined that governments should reconsider the role of GOLD in their monetary systems. If that isn't a bearish indicator I don't know what is!

PPS- the hyper-inflationists are wrong. The U.S. dollar cannot be devalued because it’s not linked, backed or convertible into anything which would allow it to be devalued. Such was not the case back in the 1930s, when Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold from $20.67 to $35.00. But back in 1934, one could, by law, convert their dollars into a set amount of gold. No such linkage exists today, making devaluation impossible. Of course you could argue, as the hyper-inflationists do, that the Fed and the U.S. government will monetize all debt (IMHO it is highly unlikely that they would ever do this) , which would thereby drive down the value of the dollar. But these actions are different and separate from the strict meaning of devaluation.

 

[william the wie]

Zander, I disagree with some of your diagnosis on these points:

Greece alone will be a bigger default than Argentina and Russia were combined and both of those were connected to/caused major downturns. If contagion hits the PIIGS with a Greek Default a Dow 100 is quite possible.

It is quite possible because in a liquidity crisis what is sold is what can still be sold as with gold and silver currently.

The biggest default(s) in history are expected to hit in 2012 so the smart money is headed for the exits now.

What I find bizarre is that some of the posters on this thread predicted this result but did not prepare for it and many who said it wouldn't happen are now stating that they did position themselves to profit or at least limited their damage.

 

[Toro]

Gold dropped to 1653 today....deflation has the effect....

The forces in the economy are deflationary. The responses are inflationary. The responses are now handcuffed as the Fed is impotent and DC incapable. We may be living 1937 all over again.

Deflation in this country has basically run its course. It has not elsewhere, however.

As for gold, I respect the collapse COMPLETELY. But we've had three other similar downward moves of 9% or more over two days like we've had this week since this bull market began a decade ago. It MAY be the end of the gold bull market but it does not have the typical metrics one would normally associate with the end of a bull market.

In the meantime, I am very worried, and am sitting almost entirely in cash. The small amount of stocks I own are hedged. I expect a bounce then new lows. If we don't bounce, look out.

I mostly agree with you (*except that I don't think deflation has run it's course) and I too am entirely in cash and short term treasuries. I expect stocks to trend lower, much much lower than anyone can imagine.

Here's what I find odd - Gold & silver are supposed to be safe havens, right? Why, then - after the hard fall in stocks - are gold and silver also falling? Gold just had its worst day in 5 years, and silver fell 18% -- its 2nd largest daily point decline in modern history. Can you say bubble? Gold has risen at 4x the rate of the CPI and would need to fall to $500 an ounce to reflect the rise in consumer prices.

Will Gold & silver (and stocks) continue to head straight down? I doubt it, the market is much more clever than that! After sharp drops the market rises slowly, sucking investors in, purring like an innocent kitten......"the water is fine, nice and calm....no sharks here". After enough time goes by people get enticed by the fun and wade back in the waters.........then WHAM!!!! A rogue wave hits and a shark attacks. This scenario is likely to play out several times before the bear market bottoms.

PS- A few weeks ago there was 98% bullish sentiment at trade-futures.com and the president of the World Bank opined that governments should reconsider the role of GOLD in their monetary systems. If that isn't a bearish indicator I don't know what is!

PPS- the hyper-inflationists are wrong. The U.S. dollar cannot be devalued because it’s not linked, backed or convertible into anything which would allow it to be devalued. Such was not the case back in the 1930s, when Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold from $20.67 to $35.00. But back in 1934, one could, by law, convert their dollars into a set amount of gold. No such linkage exists today, making devaluation impossible. Of course you could argue, as the hyper-inflationists do, that the Fed and the U.S. government will monetize all debt (IMHO it is highly unlikely that they would ever do this) , which would thereby drive down the value of the dollar. But these actions are different and separate from the strict meaning of devaluation.

I don't view gold as a safe haven. I view it as a repository of value against the devaluation of fiat currencies. The long-term trade on gold is a bet that governments will continue to pursue policies that debase fiat currencies. When governments get serious about maintaining the value of their currencies, you won't want to be anywhere near gold.

I don't like gold as a fear trade. Fear is ephemeral and can turn quickly. Plus, despite gold being a currency, it isn't the currency that really matters. In the end, we transact in fiat currencies. And since liquidity crunches are resolved by transacting dollars, when liquidity disappears, people will sell what they can to meet margin calls in dollars, including gold.

Also, gold will not hold up in deflation IMO.

 

[Rocko]

I read in IBD, that the last time the FED employed a strategy similar to operation twist, was in the 60's, the market fell 3%, but then had a 12% rally.

I hope that's the case, because the stocks I'm in are getting walloped.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Gold gets sold so fund managers can make margin calls on their other investments that have plunged below their leveraged account values, as I understand it, but I am no broker.