The scariest bubble I see right now

Mac1958

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
 

Tijn Von Ingersleben

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
With the Dow at 26000...I am pretty sure that everything is a bubble at this point...12392 ten years ago on this day.
 
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Mac1958

Mac1958

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
With the Dow at 26000...I am pretty sure that everything is a bubble at this point...12392 ten years ago on this day.
The market P/E ratio is a little high, but that could come down with earnings growth.

What's happening in business credit market is its own animal.
.
 

beagle9

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
. Could Trumps economy stave off the inevitable ?? If the Demon-crats would start helping instead of hurting America, then the bubble's could be avoided. Everyone is ready to break the cycles except for the butt hurt critters. They want to break everything just to show Trump a thing or two, so when will they decide to quit acting like crybabies, and start helping ??
 

william the wie

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There were three overlapping housing bubbles: S&L; dot.com; and the last 2003-8. This kind of small to medium size business bubble is a direct result of Berkshire-Hathaway and CalPers making oversized returns through direct investment. This bubble will pop in the high SALT/High Cost states and it has already begun to pop in the CA vineyards and the New New York enterprise zones. (And yes that is the real name Cuomo and the NY legislature gave it.) As the state tax breaks are paid for by the employees and the individual owners residence is relocating to other states and countries.
 

Toddsterpatriot

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
 
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Mac1958

Mac1958

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
 

beagle9

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Need to start teaching this nation how to become sovereign and self sustaining in each and every state again. This is why the nation was so strong back in the day's. Individual strength builds national strength over all. The break down of individualism for globalism in America has set the nation up for dependency.

It's easy really, just go back to building individual wealth amongst the lower and upper middle classes again, and build up small businesses in this country again. Create products that last, and that empower Americans again instead of creating dependency like it all has been for the last 40 years. Time to MAGA if serious about it.

Break the monopoly strangle holds on this nation by enforcing anti-monopoly laws or create laws or rules that would address the problems. Trump seems to be trying to address the problems, but those who are raking in the billions aren't up for to much change even if it will preserve the future of America.
 

Toddsterpatriot

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
With the Dow at 26000...I am pretty sure that everything is a bubble at this point...12392 ten years ago on this day.
24946....Friday.

Up from 12392 ten years ago is only 7.25% compounded.
Not an unheard of annual return.
 

evenflow1969

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
. Could Trumps economy stave off the inevitable ?? If the Demon-crats would start helping instead of hurting America, then the bubble's could be avoided. Everyone is ready to break the cycles except for the butt hurt critters. They want to break everything just to show Trump a thing or two, so when will they decide to quit acting like crybabies, and start helping ??
Bad policy is bad policy! We are repeating the same mistake we made in the real estate bubble before and making it worse. We do not learn from the past. You would think this would be right up the conservatives alley. I remember when the standard 80/20 loans were becoming 90/10 and 100% loans. The conservatives were howling this is stupid, we had 80/20 loans for a hundred years and real estate never went down. Conservatives knew then what would happen and then the worst happened. Why do they not know beter now?
 

beagle9

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
. Could Trumps economy stave off the inevitable ?? If the Demon-crats would start helping instead of hurting America, then the bubble's could be avoided. Everyone is ready to break the cycles except for the butt hurt critters. They want to break everything just to show Trump a thing or two, so when will they decide to quit acting like crybabies, and start helping ??
Bad policy is bad policy! We are repeating the same mistake we made in the real estate bubble before and making it worse. We do not learn from the past. You would think this would be right up the conservatives alley. I remember when the standard 80/20 loans were becoming 90/10 and 100% loans. The conservatives were howling this is stupid, we had 80/20 loans for a hundred years and real estate never went down. Conservatives knew then what would happen and then the worst happened. Why do they not know beter now?
.To much crooked money still being made ?? I don't know.
 

Toddsterpatriot

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
Outstanding mortgages are currently about $14.7 trillion.
If people lose confidence in that market, start suffering defaults, that's a big deal.
If the small business loan market is $500 billion (I have no idea the actual size) and starts having problems
that could be an annoying hit to profits, without having any secondary effects.

I didn't find enough specifics below, maybe you can?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20180308/z1.pdf
 

evenflow1969

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
. Could Trumps economy stave off the inevitable ?? If the Demon-crats would start helping instead of hurting America, then the bubble's could be avoided. Everyone is ready to break the cycles except for the butt hurt critters. They want to break everything just to show Trump a thing or two, so when will they decide to quit acting like crybabies, and start helping ??
Bad policy is bad policy! We are repeating the same mistake we made in the real estate bubble before and making it worse. We do not learn from the past. You would think this would be right up the conservatives alley. I remember when the standard 80/20 loans were becoming 90/10 and 100% loans. The conservatives were howling this is stupid, we had 80/20 loans for a hundred years and real estate never went down. Conservatives knew then what would happen and then the worst happened. Why do they not know beter now?
.To much crooked money still being made ?? I don't know.
That is exactly what it is. I remember when the first 100% loans came out. A good freind of mine who was a lenders rep for North American was talking about them and the negative am loans. This guy was an Urbana republican aguably the most conservative area in all of Ohio. He tells me this is going to destroy the economy but Loan officers and reps are going to get rich while it is going on. He sais I hate what is going to do but I will sell them any way and cash in while I can every body eles will! I do n ot know a single appraiser that did not know bad things were coming. Yet know one did any thing to stop it! Here we go again!
 
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Mac1958

Mac1958

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
Outstanding mortgages are currently about $14.7 trillion.
If people lose confidence in that market, start suffering defaults, that's a big deal.
If the small business loan market is $500 billion (I have no idea the actual size) and starts having problems
that could be an annoying hit to profits, without having any secondary effects.

I didn't find enough specifics below, maybe you can?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20180308/z1.pdf
No argument, I'm definitely not comparing the two markets directly, nor their scale. I just don't like the similarities, and I wonder what kind of ripple effects a meltdown in that market would create. The other thing I don't like is that these loans are being bundled into securities just like the subprimes were. They're being sold to (mostly) private investors in fairly illiquid, non-traded packages, with fat commissions to brokers.
.
 

evenflow1969

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
Outstanding mortgages are currently about $14.7 trillion.
If people lose confidence in that market, start suffering defaults, that's a big deal.
If the small business loan market is $500 billion (I have no idea the actual size) and starts having problems
that could be an annoying hit to profits, without having any secondary effects.

I didn't find enough specifics below, maybe you can?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20180308/z1.pdf
Wrong those of us that have dealt with under wrting in the past understand the swings they go through. They go from we will buy any thing to we wil buy next to nothing. Take away small buisnesses ability to get investment cash or operating cash and it will have secondary effects.
 

Tijn Von Ingersleben

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
With the Dow at 26000...I am pretty sure that everything is a bubble at this point...12392 ten years ago on this day.
24946....Friday.
Up from 12392 ten years ago is only 7.25% compounded.
Not an unheard of annual return.
The market is overvalued...by a bunch.

"US Total Market Capitalization is at 144.2%, compared to 144.5% the previous market day and 131.2% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 80.68%"

US Total Market Capitalization (Market Daily, Percent of GDP)
 
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Mac1958

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
Outstanding mortgages are currently about $14.7 trillion.
If people lose confidence in that market, start suffering defaults, that's a big deal.
If the small business loan market is $500 billion (I have no idea the actual size) and starts having problems
that could be an annoying hit to profits, without having any secondary effects.

I didn't find enough specifics below, maybe you can?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20180308/z1.pdf
Wrong those of us that have dealt with under wrting in the past understand the swings they go through. They go from we will buy any thing to we wil buy next to nothing. Take away small buisnesses ability to get investment cash or operating cash and it will have secondary effects.
I've thought about that, but I'm not sure. Because many of these loans probably shouldn't be made in the first place, their existence is only increasing risk. Just like sub-prime mortgages. Holy crap, the failure rate for small businesses is so high, I don't know how many of those loans would help. If the low-end lenders collapse, then, maybe the ripple effect wouldn't be too bad. Investors would be hurt, though.

I haven't really thought through this end of it. This might end up being an educational thread...
.
 

william the wie

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high tech small and medium sized business bubbles go back to at least the plague induced labor shortage of the 1340s, they ain't going to get cured.
 

william the wie

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I won't go so far as to call this a prediction, but there's a massive bubble brewing right now and I haven't seen anyone talking about it.

Remember those radio and teevee commercials in the 2004-2008 years that advertised low-document and no-document home loans, 125% LTV loans, bad credit mortgages, all the horrific SHIT that would get layered into CDOs and CMOs, avoid regulation, get phony AAA ratings by the paid-off ratings companies, turn to shit and ultimately damn near bring down the entire global economy?

Well, imagine those same types of loans for small to mid-sized business owners instead of home buyers.

It's damn near deja vu. Lenders are both proliferating everywhere, and dropping lending standards to a point at which they could barely be considered "standards". Because it's not a front-page thing like mortgages, this massive stew of bad credit is flying totally under the radar - YET, a business is FAR more likely to fail than is a home owner likely to pay their mortgage. They're everywhere now, the loans are going into larger securities, and here we are again.

Just saying.
.
How many fewer business loans compared to home mortgages?
I have no idea. Why?
.
Outstanding mortgages are currently about $14.7 trillion.
If people lose confidence in that market, start suffering defaults, that's a big deal.
If the small business loan market is $500 billion (I have no idea the actual size) and starts having problems
that could be an annoying hit to profits, without having any secondary effects.

I didn't find enough specifics below, maybe you can?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20180308/z1.pdf
Wrong those of us that have dealt with under wrting in the past understand the swings they go through. They go from we will buy any thing to we wil buy next to nothing. Take away small buisnesses ability to get investment cash or operating cash and it will have secondary effects.
The collapse of investment bubbles lowers the costs of inputs for the surviving companies as they buy up the assets of the departed companies at $0.1/$ something that was obvious in the 17th century. As the economic base gets larger so do the swings.
 

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