The most accurate poll has Romney up by 5

[Annie]

Gallup has the President up a point or two. However they admit that Romney has a 'slight edge' on the economic front, which is #1 in minds of the people. Furthermore, if one looks at the numbers, that 'slight edge' is a wee bit more than that, with those that vote. If anyone really wishes that the conservatives aren't going to vote or that Obama has awakened any of his base, don't read this.

Voters Give Romney Slight Edge Over Obama on Economy

Okay, I don't care who y'all are; that right there is funny.

How do they decide that. What has he said that leads them to believe he will handle the economy well. It looks to me like they voted their "anybody but Obama" stance.

One could ask the same of Obama supporters, exactly how has he helped the economy? Oh sure, it's 'better than it was.' So not true for the young, the old, and most of those in between.

 

[JRK]

Gallup has the President up a point or two. However they admit that Romney has a 'slight edge' on the economic front, which is #1 in minds of the people. Furthermore, if one looks at the numbers, that 'slight edge' is a wee bit more than that, with those that vote. If anyone really wishes that the conservatives aren't going to vote or that Obama has awakened any of his base, don't read this.

Voters Give Romney Slight Edge Over Obama on Economy

Okay, I don't care who y'all are; that right there is funny.

How do they decide that. What has he said that leads them to believe he will handle the economy well. It looks to me like they voted their "anybody but Obama" stance.

Bd Boop
tax policy
Spending
BHO has a record and with his class warfare verbiage, you cannot trust them

 

[BDBoop]

Gallup has the President up a point or two. However they admit that Romney has a 'slight edge' on the economic front, which is #1 in minds of the people. Furthermore, if one looks at the numbers, that 'slight edge' is a wee bit more than that, with those that vote. If anyone really wishes that the conservatives aren't going to vote or that Obama has awakened any of his base, don't read this.

Voters Give Romney Slight Edge Over Obama on Economy

Okay, I don't care who y'all are; that right there is funny.

How do they decide that. What has he said that leads them to believe he will handle the economy well. It looks to me like they voted their "anybody but Obama" stance.

One could ask the same of Obama supporters, exactly how has he helped the economy? Oh sure, it's 'better than it was.' So not true for the young, the old, and most of those in between.

No, one couldn't. He's on the losing end of the poll. Therefore. What do they base Mitt's 'winning' formula to be?

 

[Annie]

Okay, I don't care who y'all are; that right there is funny.

How do they decide that. What has he said that leads them to believe he will handle the economy well. It looks to me like they voted their "anybody but Obama" stance.

One could ask the same of Obama supporters, exactly how has he helped the economy? Oh sure, it's 'better than it was.' So not true for the young, the old, and most of those in between.

No, one couldn't. He's on the losing end of the poll. Therefore. What do they base Mitt's 'winning' formula to be?

That's just the thing, each person decides who they think would be best, by whatever criteria they choose. For most it has to do with who they think screwed them last. Hint, not Romney, even in MA, he's been out too long.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

President Obama 0.2

Although the Rasmussen has Romney up by five

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 253 Governor Romney 170

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House

And President Obama is ahead in all but two battleground states, Arizona and Missouri.

Given the fact American presidents are elected by the Electoral College as opposed to the popular vote, polls such as those cited by the OP are meaningless, not to mention the inherent inaccuracies unique to this polling firm. One needs to monitor the swing state polls.

 

[Annie]

President Obama 0.2

Although the Rasmussen has Romney up by five

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 253 Governor Romney 170

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House

And President Obama is ahead in all but two battleground states, Arizona and Missouri.

Given the fact American presidents are elected by the Electoral College as opposed to the popular vote, polls such as those cited by the OP are meaningless, not to mention the inherent inaccuracies unique to this polling firm. One needs to monitor the swing state polls.

Indeed:

Swing States Back at Tipping Point - 2012 Decoded

The latest Gallup/USA Today swing state poll released Monday underscores how narrow a margin for error President Obama possesses in the 2012 campaign.

When this poll last surveyed 12 swing states in March, Obama held a comfortable 51 percent to 42 percent advantage over Mitt Romney, then slogging toward the conclusion of the GOP nominating contest. With Romney now established as the inevitable GOP nominee, the new survey shows Obama clinging to a 47 percent to 45 percent edge that is within the poll's margin of error.

 

[JRK]

allup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states

 

[Annie]

allup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states

Keep in mind that the USA piece is from nearly 6 days ago, the 'gay' issue more than likely hit him with LV in FL, OH, and PA. Much else can and will change the map before Nov., but in all likelihood the only issue that will matter is the economy.

 

[francoHFW]

When policies come up- you lose...

"I know, let's cut taxes on the rich, destroy Medicare, raise military spending, and lower the deficit (in 2036). Won't the chumps EVER learn? JFC

 

[JRK]

allup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states

Keep in mind that the USA piece is from nearly 6 days ago, the 'gay' issue more than likely hit him with LV in FL, OH, and PA. Much else can and will change the map before Nov., but in all likelihood the only issue that will matter is the economy.

LV?
I think it did him no good my-self
not sure what he was trying to do except get Cloony and his bunch off of there wallets

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen's pro-GOP bias in the 2010 elections:

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

 

[francoHFW]

BTW, Rasmussen was only most accurate in the LAST poll, and was STILL bought off propaganda...

 

[JRK]

Rasmussen's pro-GOP bias in the 2010 elections:

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Yea i have all ready been through that OPINION
there was so many races that had a +15% swing, they never once showed how many they got right
Out of the 60+ I looked at in this link, Rasmussen got 3 wrong as I recall

Heading into Election Day 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling showed a huge lead for Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot that accurately projected the historic gains of more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives. We didn’t poll individual House districts, but the two statewide House races we polled in the Dakotas came very close to the actual results.

As for the Senate, Rasmussen Reports projected 48 seats for the Democrats and 45 for the Republicans. We also listed seven Toss-Ups – California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia - in the final Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

The two parties split those seven Toss-Up races, which is what you’d expect. Four were won by Democrats, two by Republicans, and one (Washington) remains too close to call. For a look at our polling results and analysis in the Toss-up states, click here.

Every pollster misses something along the way and our biggest miss came in Nevada. Our final survey in that Senate race showed Republican challenger Sharron Angle ahead 49% to 45% but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid won 50% to 45%. The two candidates had been three points apart or less in eight of the nine surveys we conducted in the state since July. To read more analysis on polling in Nevada, click here.

We also had three leaners in our final Senate rankings– Connecticut leaning toward Democrat Richard Blumenthal, Missouri toward Republican Roy Blunt and Wisconsin toward the GOP’s Ron Johnson. All fell the way our numbers projected.

For a full state-by-state list of our final Senate race polling numbers versus the actual results, click here.

The final Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard showed 10 races as Toss-Ups – California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon and Rhode Island. Seven of the races were won by the candidates we showed ahead in our final surveys. The other three races remain too close to call.

For a full state-by-state list of Rasmussen Reports’ final gubernatorial race polling numbers versus the actual results, click here.
Election 2010: How Did We Do? - Rasmussen Reports™


Note: Actual results are as of 10:30 a.m. on November 17, 2010 and are subject to change.
State
Candidates
Actual Results
Final Rasmussen Results
Date of Last RR Poll
Alabama
Richard Shelby (R)
65%
58%
9/21/2010

Roy Barnes (D)
35%
30%

Alaska
Joe Miller (R)
35%
35%
10/13/2010

Scott McAdams (D)
23%
27%

Lisa Murkowski
40%
34%

Arizona
John McCain (R)
59%
52%
10/28/2010

Rodney Glassman (D)
35%
32%

Arkansas
John Boozman (R)
58%
55%
10/28/2010

Blanche Lincoln (D)
37%
36%

California
Carly Fiorina (R)
42%
46%
10/27/2010

Barbara Boxer (D)
52%
49%

Colorado
Ken Buck (R)
47%
48%

10/25/2010

Michael Bennett (D)
48%
44%

Connecticut
Linda McMahon (R)
43%
46%
10/31/2010

Richard Blumenthal (D)
55%
53%

Delaware
Christine O'Donnell (R)
40%
40%
10/14/2010

Chris Coons (D)
57%
51%

Florida
Marco Rubio (R)
49%
50%
10/27/2010

Kendrick Meek (D)
20%
16%

Charlie Crist (I)
30%
30%

Georgia
Johnny Isakson (R)
58%
59%
10/24/2010

Michael Thurmond (D)
39%
29%

Chuck Donovan (I)

5%

Hawaii
Cam Cavasso (R)
22%
40%
10/13/2010

Daniel Inouye (D)
75%
53%

Idaho
Mike Crapo (R)
71%
63%
8/31/2010

Tom Sullivan (D)
25%
24%

Illinois
Mark Kirk (R)
48%
46%
10/26/2010

Alexi Giannoulias (D)
46%
42%

LeAlan Jones (G)

5%


Indiana
Dan Coats (R)
55%
52%
10/21-22/2010

Brad Ellsworth (D)
40%
34%

Iowa
Chuck Grassley (R)
65%
55%
9/23/2010

Roxanne Conlin (D)
33%
37%

Kansas
Jerry Moran (R)
70%
61%
8/4/2010

Lisa Johnston (D)
26%
28%

Kentucky
Rand Paul (R)
56%
53%
10/27/2010

Jack Conway (D)
44%
41%

Louisiana
David Vitter (R)
57%
54%
8/30/2010

Charlie Melancon (D)
38%
33%

Maryland
Eric Wargotz (R)
36%
38%
10/24/2010

Barbara Mikulski (D)
62%
56%

Missouri
Roy Blunt (R)
54%
52%
10/19/2010

Robin Carnahan (D)
41%
43%

Nevada
Sharron Angle (R)
45%
49%
10/25/2010

Harry Reid (D)
50%
45%

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R)
60%
56%
10/27/2010

Paul Hodes (D)
37%
41%

New York
Jay Townsend (R)
33%
31%
10/19/2010

Chuck Schumer (D)
65%
59%

New York Special
Joe DioGuardi (R)
36%
33%
10/19/2010

Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
62%
54%

North Carolina
Richard Burr (R)
55%
52%
10/12/2010

Elaine Marshall (D)
43%
38%

North Dakota
John Hoeven (R)
76%
72%
10/20/2010

Tracy Potter (D)
22%
25%

Ohio
Rob Portman (R)
57%
57%
10/26/2010

Lee Fisher (D)
39%
33%

Oklahoma
Tom Coburn (R)
71%
68%
9/23/2010

Jim Rogers (D)
26%
26%

Oregon
Jim Huffman (R)
39%
42%
10/25/2010

Ron Wyden (D)
57%
53%

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R)
51%
50%
10/28/2010

Joe Sestak (D)
49%
46%

South Carolina
Jim DeMint (R)
62%
58%
10/19/2010

Alvin Greene (D)
28%
21%

Utah
Mike Lee (R)
62%
61%
10/13/2010

Sam Granato (D)
33%
28%

Vermont
Len Britton (R)
31%
32%
9/13/2010

Patrick Leahy (D)
64%
63%

Washington
Dino Rossi (R)
48%
48%
10/26/2010

Patty Murray (D)
52%
47%

West Virginia
John Raese (R)
43%
46%
10/31/2010

Joe Manchin (D)
53%
50%

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R)
52%
53%
10/25/2010

Russ Feingold (D)
47%
46%

U.S. House of Representatives Results


North Dakota
Rick Berg (R)
55%
52%
10/18-19/2010

Earl Pomeroy (D)
45%
42%

South Dakota
Kristi Noem (R)
48%
49%
10/20/2010

Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D)
46%
44%

Vermont
Paul Beaudry (R)
32%
30%
9

 

[Annie]

allup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan.
Obama's approval rating above 50% in only 10 states

Keep in mind that the USA piece is from nearly 6 days ago, the 'gay' issue more than likely hit him with LV in FL, OH, and PA. Much else can and will change the map before Nov., but in all likelihood the only issue that will matter is the economy.

LV?
I think it did him no good my-self
not sure what he was trying to do except get Cloony and his bunch off of there wallets

'Likely voters'-Meaning those who actually voted in the past.

He 'did nothing' as in 'nothing about gays and marriage will change, it's a state issue. Even there, those actually concerned know that when the issue comes up for a 'referendum vote', they lose. Even in CA. So the state legislators are happy to produce, for a price. Bottom line is that only a core group cares about the issue and the rest won't elect or fail to elect someone on that issue alone.

It does 'count' though in folks that want more than just one issue, the economy for most. In FL, OH, PA where there are real mixes of county-by-county divisions, the stand may influence.

 

[JRK]

Keep in mind that the USA piece is from nearly 6 days ago, the 'gay' issue more than likely hit him with LV in FL, OH, and PA. Much else can and will change the map before Nov., but in all likelihood the only issue that will matter is the economy.

LV?
I think it did him no good my-self
not sure what he was trying to do except get Cloony and his bunch off of there wallets

'Likely voters'-Meaning those who actually voted in the past.

He 'did nothing' as in 'nothing about gays and marriage will change, it's a state issue. Even there, those actually concerned know that when the issue comes up for a 'referendum vote', they lose. Even in CA. So the state legislators are happy to produce, for a price. Bottom line is that only a core group cares about the issue and the rest won't elect or fail to elect someone on that issue alone.

It does 'count' though in folks that want more than just one issue, the economy for most. In FL, OH, PA where there are real mixes of county-by-county divisions, the stand may influence.

I know people in Florida who voted for BHO, about 11
8 will not do it again
there all under 30
1 has lost everything
1 is 800 miles from home to work

The economy in Florida is done with some work in the bigger cities, but not even close to 80s through 07

 

[Too Tall]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online
AP is a lie
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Direction of Country
right direction is at the low 30s

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

Many of the pollsters poll registered voters to get their numbers whereas Rasmussen uses likely voters. Approximately 40% of the registered voters won't go to the polls and vote, so that alone has to skew their results.

 

[Annie]

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online
AP is a lie
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Direction of Country
right direction is at the low 30s

Ahh, I see.

SO every other polling agency is simply lying, and Rasmussen is the great oracle who brings us the truth at last?



OK, let's say the opinion article, from the National Review no less, is correct (which it clearly is not, as they use the same "likely voter" classifications as Rasmussen does)...

How do you explain the +4 rating from Gallup, which the author of your article sites as a credible agency?

Are they lying too?

Many of the pollsters poll registered voters to get their numbers whereas Rasmussen uses likely voters. Approximately 40% of the registered voters won't go to the polls and vote, so that alone has to skew their results.

Yea, but that is not to be mentioned. Polling methods are 'boring.' Sigh.

 

[NYcarbineer]

On May 13th of 2008, Rasmussen had McCain winning by a point.

 

[JRK]

To start with I never said rasmussen was perfect
I look at it as the approval rating is at 45 and the re-elect is at 53
there is a problem
Rasmussen missed the Reid win in 2010 by a mile, they admitted (as did many others)

 

[NYcarbineer]

To start with I never said rasmussen was perfect
I look at it as the approval rating is at 45 and the re-elect is at 53
there is a problem
Rasmussen missed the Reid win in 2010 by a mile, they admitted (as did many others)

For one thing, Rasmussen wants you to pay to see the internals, aka crosstabs, of their polls, so unless you pony up you can't even see who or how they might be polling - or claiming to poll - at this point.