The electoral votemaster is back!!! (website)

[Statistikhengst]

This guy has one of the sharpest wits I have ever read. He just did an amazing take of both fields that is really, really worth reading.

g5000 - you are gonna love this guy:

ElectoralVote

And since today will be archived sometime soon, these are the permalinks:

ElectoralVote

Quote (DEM Nomination):

...Sanders may win a few caucuses and primaries in small states where retail campaigning matters a lot, including Iowa and New Hampshire, but he will be badly outspent in places like California and New York, where the motherlodes of delegates are. Still, he may influence Clinton's positions on many issues and make for interesting debates. Finally, it would be truly historic for a rumpled 73-year-old Jewish socialist from Brooklyn to be the Democratic nominee, but it would be a lot more historic for a woman to grab the brass ring. And among Democrats, there are more women than socialists.

Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is also in the race although you would never know it. He made an enormous blunder doing so. Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) is retiring and all O'Malley had to do was file the paperwork and he would be a senator from Maryland for the next 30 or 40 years. Nobody could beat him. Why he entered the presidential race is a mystery....

Quote (GOP Nomination):

Jeb!

The nominal front runner is John E. Bush, sometimes known as Jeb! He has a lot going for him. First, he is the establishment favorite and the establishment usually gets what it wants, but not always (see Giuliani, Rudolf, 2008). New Jersey governor Chris Christie used to be the favorite, but now he is a bridge too far. Bush has a famous last name, a Rolodex like no other, and a massive fundraising network. He already raised $100 million and probably could top $500 million before the show is over. After the 2012 election, Priebus ordered an autopsy of the election and the coroner said the Republicans need an injection of Latinos. Bush's wife, Columba, was born in Mexico and Bush speaks fluent Spanish. No doubt his advisors are already working on ads to be broadcast on Univision and Telemundo with Bush speaking directly to a Latino audience in Spanish explaining that he loves immigrants so much he even married one.

Despite these enormous advantages, Bush also has a few minuses. For starters, all those companies that have stocked up on "No dynasties" bumper stickers are going to find them hard to sell. Also the "Time for a new generation" bumper stickers aren't going to do well, either. He's also going to have to defend his brother regularly, especially with Clinton constantly pointing out that during her husband's administration 23 million jobs were created (vs. 1 million during George W. Bush's and 8 million during Obama's so far). In addition, Bush hasn't run for public office since 2002 and is undoubtedly rusty. He could easily do something marking him as out of touch, like his father's surprise upon seeing a supermarket scanner. A couple of dozen oppo research teams are no doubt trying to learn in detail what he has been up to for the past 10 years and if some of it can be exploited to hurt him.

The Don:

Finally, we come to Donald Trump. It is hard to figure out what to make of him except he is not going to be the Republican nominee is 2016. Reince Priebus will personally saw off his own right arm before he will let this happen. He well understands that a Trump-Clinton contest will make the 1964 Johnson-Goldwater race look like a near tie. If need be (and it is unlikely), Priebus will get the RNC to magically create a whole bunch of new superdelegates to be named by the state parties if that is what it takes to stop Trump. In 2012, we had a whole series of candidates-of-the-month (remember Herman Cain?) all of whom eventually fizzled. Trump won't run out of money, but just wait until the oppo researchers get through with him ("If you are such a great businessman, how come you went bankrupt four times?") Early polls don't mean a lot and a lot of voters are indeed angry and express this by telling pollsters they are for Trump. But when actual voting starts, especially in the big blue states, which send lots and lots of delegates to the Republican National Convention, many will stop and think whether they want Bush, Walker, or Rubio to be the actual candidate.

One unknown at this point is what happens when Trump finally realizes that he is not going to be the Republican nominee. Option 1 is go off and sulk on one of his golf courses. Option 2 is run as an independent to spite the Republican party.

To be fair, this guy tears into everyone.

I love his stuff.

Enjoy.

 

[g5000]

He has Florida as Barely Democratic, but it would be Republican is Bush gets the GOP nomination.

The GOP could win with a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would sew up both Ohio and Florida for the red team.

 

[Derideo_Te]

That was a great read. Thank you.

 

[Derideo_Te]

He has Florida as Barely Democratic, but it would be Republican is Bush gets the GOP nomination.

The GOP could win with a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would sew up both Ohio and Florida for the red team.

Yes, the Kasich/Rubio ticket strikes me as a serious threat to Hillary's chances.

Even Jeb/Kasich would be strong too.

FL and OH could very well be the key states in 2016.

 

[Statistikhengst]

He has Florida as Barely Democratic, but it would be Republican is Bush gets the GOP nomination.

The GOP could win with a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would sew up both Ohio and Florida for the red team.

Yes, the Kasich/Rubio ticket strikes me as a serious threat to Hillary's chances.

Even Jeb/Kasich would be strong too.

FL and OH could very well be the key states in 2016.

And yet, in Florida, Hillary currently easily beats both Jeb! and Marco... so....

 

[Derideo_Te]

He has Florida as Barely Democratic, but it would be Republican is Bush gets the GOP nomination.

The GOP could win with a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would sew up both Ohio and Florida for the red team.

Yes, the Kasich/Rubio ticket strikes me as a serious threat to Hillary's chances.

Even Jeb/Kasich would be strong too.

FL and OH could very well be the key states in 2016.

And yet, in Florida, Hillary currently easily beats both Jeb! and Marco... so....

But that is in early polling.

Once the general comes around that will tighten up IMO.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And I just mentioned this in my big polling dump. Kasich could really beat Hillary in Ohio, but he gets whipped in neighboring Pennslyvania and is 13 points behind in Florida.

 

[Statistikhengst]

He has Florida as Barely Democratic, but it would be Republican is Bush gets the GOP nomination.

The GOP could win with a Kasich/Rubio ticket. That would sew up both Ohio and Florida for the red team.

Yes, the Kasich/Rubio ticket strikes me as a serious threat to Hillary's chances.

Even Jeb/Kasich would be strong too.

FL and OH could very well be the key states in 2016.

And yet, in Florida, Hillary currently easily beats both Jeb! and Marco... so....

But that is in early polling.

Once the general comes around that will tighten up IMO.

Or, they can open up more.

The so-called "break-point" is generally 18-20 days before the election.