CDZ The Big What If

[Anathema]

You better believe we are dismissing the darkfurys after the election, and his ilk, to an uncertain future outside of this GOP.

Which will turn your GOP into a party which true Americans (Nationalists, Isolationist, and Conservatives) won't touch with a ten foot pole. The anti-Trump movement of the Establishment Republicans will kill your party quicker than anything else.

 

[Nosmo King]

I'm actually wondering if support for Trump falls on ideological lines or party loyalty. If it's ideology, where have the supporters been during the ideological debate? That debate was between the Tea Party less taxes, smaller government, no entitlement spending crowd and their polar opposites. Trump's ideology, what I can make of it, lays squarely in the xenophobic, isolationist, look for scapegoats among immigrants, Mexicans and Muslims. Not a lot of political policy, but a lot of fear and suspicion.

Now, if his support is from the Tea Party wing, why hasn't Trump championed their causes so vigorously that they could throw in with him without reservation?

And, if the Tea Party ideologues were so fervent in their beliefs, why did they abandon champions like Cruz and Rubio?

Is Trump's support like the Susquehanna River: a mile wide and a foot deep? Or has The Donald convinced the Tea Party wing that he and he a.one can bring them to the political Promised Land?

So far the flames from his campaign throw a lot of heat, but not much light.

A mile wide and a foot deep is enough to win the presidency. It doesn't matter how you want to phrase your condescension toward Trump and his supporters, in the end, it all comes down to one day and how the candidates perform in the swing states.

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Don't like the message? Attack the messenger. Where have we seen this play out before?

 

[JakeStarkey]

I'm actually wondering if support for Trump falls on ideological lines or party loyalty. If it's ideology, where have the supporters been during the ideological debate? That debate was between the Tea Party less taxes, smaller government, no entitlement spending crowd and their polar opposites. Trump's ideology, what I can make of it, lays squarely in the xenophobic, isolationist, look for scapegoats among immigrants, Mexicans and Muslims. Not a lot of political policy, but a lot of fear and suspicion.

Now, if his support is from the Tea Party wing, why hasn't Trump championed their causes so vigorously that they could throw in with him without reservation?

And, if the Tea Party ideologues were so fervent in their beliefs, why did they abandon champions like Cruz and Rubio?

Is Trump's support like the Susquehanna River: a mile wide and a foot deep? Or has The Donald convinced the Tea Party wing that he and he a.one can bring them to the political Promised Land?

So far the flames from his campaign throw a lot of heat, but not much light.

A mile wide and a foot deep is enough to win the presidency. It doesn't matter how you want to phrase your condescension toward Trump and his supporters, in the end, it all comes down to one day and how the candidates perform in the swing states.

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Attacking me only makes you look weak. They are credible, and you offer only your opinion. End of story.

 

[Dekster]

A mile wide and a foot deep is enough to win the presidency. It doesn't matter how you want to phrase your condescension toward Trump and his supporters, in the end, it all comes down to one day and how the candidates perform in the swing states.

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Don't like the message? Attack the messenger. Where have we seen this play out before?

I cannot speak to what you have seen or not seen and the problem is you want to sell a "message" and not the data. The RCP mixes a bunch of flawed pools aggregating and obfuscating their flaws, including too many different types of polls. If you want to say "This poll says X" then that is one things, but a poll of polls is about as useful as a life vest in the desert. It almost always includes old polls and very skewed outlying polls in the polling average.

 

[Dekster]

A mile wide and a foot deep is enough to win the presidency. It doesn't matter how you want to phrase your condescension toward Trump and his supporters, in the end, it all comes down to one day and how the candidates perform in the swing states.

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

They are credible, and you are not. End of story.

A mile wide and a foot deep is enough to win the presidency. It doesn't matter how you want to phrase your condescension toward Trump and his supporters, in the end, it all comes down to one day and how the candidates perform in the swing states.

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

They are credible, and you are not. End of story.

They are not credible and you can proceed to have gay sex with your straw man.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Swing states?

Comrade Trump's attacks on Cruz and Kasich the day after the RNC nomination and then his attack on Mr. Khan finally have awoken the American electorate to what he is.

Comrade Trump may win OH and FL. HRC is pulling away beyond the MoE in NC, VA, MI, PA, MN, WI, which is enough to win.

Easily.

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Don't like the message? Attack the messenger. Where have we seen this play out before?

I cannot speak to what you have seen or not seen and the problem is you want to sell a "message" and not the data. The RCP mixes a bunch of flawed pools aggregating and obfuscating their flaws, including too many different types of polls. If you want to say "This poll says X" then that is one things, but a poll of polls is about as useful as a life vest in the desert. It almost always includes old polls and very skewed outlying polls in the polling average.

You have an unsupported message. That's all. The truth is you don't like RCP because it does not reflect your idea of what people out there are thinking. Since you can't not objectively disprove the RCP, you create your own straw man. Tough. The numbers are there.

 

[320 Years of History]

Your question is an interesting one for some observers of late have begun to note and discuss the similarities between some of Mrs. Clinton's and the Democrats' platform proposals and those of legacy Republican aims and the dissimilarity between Trump's and legacy GOP methods. Thus it's beginning to seem as though a material share of Trump's support accrues merely from his having chosen to label himself a Republican. Interestingly, in some rarefied circles, I heard, back when Trump first announced his candidacy, that he chose to go with the GOP in part because he thought the field of GOP candidates were, by him, more easily defeated in the primaries than would be Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders and because he thought the other GOP candidates' ideas were "total sh*t," whereas he didn't entirely feel that way about either Democratic candidate's views. That said, the veracity of such suppositions isn't important to me for if they are inaccurate, they don't matter, and if they are accurate, they must necessarily be accompanied by a level of disingenuousness (by Trump) I cannot condone.


My disapproval of Trump's candidacy has nothing to do with the party that has nominated him or the party he has joined. It has to do with what I see as the lack of merit of the mode and method of his mood, models and ministrations.

Had Donald Trump run as a Democrat and won the nomination, would you still support him?

No.

Had he run under the same policies, statements, attitude and won, would he still attract your vote?

No.

Had the GOP no,inatedmJeb Bush or John Kasich, had Hillary and Bernie been taken down as Trump took down the other Republican candidates, had the tables been turned, would you support Trump?

No.
​

I'm an Independent; party affiliation is irrelevant to me.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Virginia 42.3 37.0 Clinton +5.3
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 41.5 46.0 Trump +4.5
Missouri 38.0 44.3 Trump +6.3
Colorado 44.6 36.6 Clinton +8.0
Nevada 41.7 43.7 Trump +2.0
Arizona 43.5 43.0 Clinton +0.5
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

 

[Dekster]

When you have numbers to support your fantasies, pony them up. Right now, the last numbers I saw has Hillary trailing Trump.

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Don't like the message? Attack the messenger. Where have we seen this play out before?

I cannot speak to what you have seen or not seen and the problem is you want to sell a "message" and not the data. The RCP mixes a bunch of flawed pools aggregating and obfuscating their flaws, including too many different types of polls. If you want to say "This poll says X" then that is one things, but a poll of polls is about as useful as a life vest in the desert. It almost always includes old polls and very skewed outlying polls in the polling average.

You have an unsupported message. That's all. The truth is you don't like RCP because it does not reflect your idea of what people out there are thinking. Since you can't not objectively disprove the RCP, you create your own straw man. Tough. The numbers are there.

You have no idea what I am thinking. I have consistently argued that the RCP is worthless regardless of what it says. It is garbage in, garbage out, like your mouth, so I can see why you like it so much. Most uneducated lazy people do like it because they can go to one site and be spoon fed their strawberry and banana baby food without having to know anything about the technical aspects of polling.

 

[yiostheoy]

Had Donald Trump run as a Democrat and won the nomination, would you still support him?

Had he run under the same policies, statements, attitude and won, would he still attract your vote? He still wants to build a wall, exclude Muslim immigrants, stop trade deals, and he still insults women and POWs and the disabled. Does he still get your vote?

Had the GOP no,inatedmJeb Bush or John Kasich, had Hillary and Bernie been taken down as Trump took down the other Republican candidates, had the tables been turned, would you support Trump?

It's the Big What If, the hypothetical in its grandest state. Bit, if circumstances were different and you had Donald Trump (d) against Jeb Bush (r) on the ballot this November, how would you cast your vote.

Had Trump hijacked the DEM Party instead of the GOP, then Kasich probably would have won the US Presidency. Kasich has the best polling results.

Christie was apparently too fat for The White House.

Jeb was blamed for W.

Cruz was too loco.

Dr. Dumbazz Carson was too dumbazz to handle a complex national economy.

Carly had laid off too many workers.

The rest of the slew fell by the wayside one by one as they were no longer being asked to debate any longer.

 

[yiostheoy]

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Virginia 42.3 37.0 Clinton +5.3
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 41.5 46.0 Trump +4.5
Missouri 38.0 44.3 Trump +6.3
Colorado 44.6 36.6 Clinton +8.0
Nevada 41.7 43.7 Trump +2.0
Arizona 43.5 43.0 Clinton +0.5
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

It looks like Hillary is getting her boost, which some are calling a bounce, because she has bounced back.

 

[yiostheoy]

I'm actually wondering if support for Trump falls on ideological lines or party loyalty. If it's ideology, where have the supporters been during the ideological debate? That debate was between the Tea Party less taxes, smaller government, no entitlement spending crowd and their polar opposites. Trump's ideology, what I can make of it, lays squarely in the xenophobic, isolationist, look for scapegoats among immigrants, Mexicans and Muslims. Not a lot of political policy, but a lot of fear and suspicion.

Now, if his support is from the Tea Party wing, why hasn't Trump championed their causes so vigorously that they could throw in with him without reservation?

And, if the Tea Party ideologues were so fervent in their beliefs, why did they abandon champions like Cruz and Rubio?

Is Trump's support like the Susquehanna River: a mile wide and a foot deep? Or has The Donald convinced the Tea Party wing that he and he a.one can bring them to the political Promised Land?

So far the flames from his campaign throw a lot of heat, but not much light.

I know T-Party fanatics who hate Trump.

They will probably stay home and not vote.

They are why the DEM's are likely to recapture control of the House and Senate.

I really don't want Hillary to win the Senate. But it looks like she probably will too.

 

[Dekster]

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Virginia 42.3 37.0 Clinton +5.3
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 41.5 46.0 Trump +4.5
Missouri 38.0 44.3 Trump +6.3
Colorado 44.6 36.6 Clinton +8.0
Nevada 41.7 43.7 Trump +2.0
Arizona 43.5 43.0 Clinton +0.5
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

Reuters has two polls out. In the one that has Clinton-Trump-other Clinton has a 6 point lead and Other is over 20% with a 3% margin of error. In the one that names others than Clinton-Trump by name, Clinton and Trump are tied. Which one is right?

 

[320 Years of History]

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Virginia 42.3 37.0 Clinton +5.3
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 41.5 46.0 Trump +4.5
Missouri 38.0 44.3 Trump +6.3
Colorado 44.6 36.6 Clinton +8.0
Nevada 41.7 43.7 Trump +2.0
Arizona 43.5 43.0 Clinton +0.5
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

Reuters has two polls out. In the one that has Clinton-Trump-other Clinton has a 6 point lead and Other is over 20% with a 3% margin of error. In the one that names others than Clinton-Trump by name, Clinton and Trump are tied. Which one is right?

Black bold:
Time will tell, and with God's grace, I'll be around at that time to find what time tells us.

 

[Dekster]

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Virginia 42.3 37.0 Clinton +5.3
North Carolina 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0
Georgia 41.5 46.0 Trump +4.5
Missouri 38.0 44.3 Trump +6.3
Colorado 44.6 36.6 Clinton +8.0
Nevada 41.7 43.7 Trump +2.0
Arizona 43.5 43.0 Clinton +0.5
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

Reuters has two polls out. In the one that has Clinton-Trump-other Clinton has a 6 point lead and Other is over 20% with a 3% margin of error. In the one that names others than Clinton-Trump by name, Clinton and Trump are tied. Which one is right?

Black bold:
Time will tell, and with God's grace, I'll be around at that time to find what time tells us.

Well it is an honest response. when you have 25% picking "other" generically after both conventions, and Hillary losing 4% support and Trump gaining 2% support when Stein and Johnson are included by name, then it says to me that people don't like any of the above, but more of those people are leaning Trump and just aren't willing to admit it/commit to it. Add to that the Bradley Effect likely playing out when it comes to Clinton and Progressives and the "First Woman" thing, it signals to me that it is still neck and neck. The Bradley Effect was when pollster realized that blacks were more likely to say they support a black candidate when they really didn't in reality when it came to actually voting. I have no idea who will win, but it certainly looks like it may be daylight hours on Wednesday the 9th before we know.

 

[320 Years of History]

it certainly looks like it may be daylight hours on Wednesday the 9th before we know.

That's okay, so long as by 20-January-2017 we do know; that's, though not ideal, soon enough.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Bingo!

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 44.5 43.4 Clinton +1.1

Favorability Ratings -16.0 -19.8 Clinton +3.8
Betting Odds 70.0 30.0
4-Way Race Johnson Stein
RCP Poll Average 7.0 2.8
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 202 154 Clinton +48
No Toss Up States 322 216
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Pennsylvania 46.4 42.0 Clinton +4.4
Michigan 41.0 35.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio 42.6 41.8 Clinton +0.8
Florida 43.5 43.8 Trump +0.3
Iowa 41.3 40.8 Clinton +0.5
Wisconsin 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6
New Hampshire 43.0 39.3 Clinton +3.7

You can look up Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina on your own on the RCP site.

I don't need to. RCP averages are not credible.

Don't like the message? Attack the messenger. Where have we seen this play out before?

I cannot speak to what you have seen or not seen and the problem is you want to sell a "message" and not the data. The RCP mixes a bunch of flawed pools aggregating and obfuscating their flaws, including too many different types of polls. If you want to say "This poll says X" then that is one things, but a poll of polls is about as useful as a life vest in the desert. It almost always includes old polls and very skewed outlying polls in the polling average.

You have an unsupported message. That's all. The truth is you don't like RCP because it does not reflect your idea of what people out there are thinking. Since you can't not objectively disprove the RCP, you create your own straw man. Tough. The numbers are there.

You have no idea what I am thinking. I have consistently argued that the RCP is worthless regardless of what it says. It is garbage in, garbage out, like your mouth, so I can see why you like it so much. Most uneducated lazy people do like it because they can go to one site and be spoon fed their strawberry and banana baby food without having to know anything about the technical aspects of polling.

Your assertion is meaningless without numbers, without quantification, without analysis, without expert qualification, and, you little buddy, are not an expert. The RCP is a tool, yes, and, so are you.

Monday, August 1
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News Clinton 47, Trump 41 Clinton +6

 

[Hiryuu]

You better believe we are dismissing the darkfurys after the election, and his ilk, to an uncertain future outside of this GOP.

So says communist jake.

That is the far right type of uneducated remark that results in guys like DF being chased out of the party.

Perhaps the GOP can chase a few more folks out of the party, because that will undoubtedly help them win elections. If they can possibly boot the Christians to the curb, or at least root out the few remaining Conservatives that wear the party button, then they will have a much better chance of securing the White House as a Progressive Liberal.