Solar and wind are not about cheap, reliable, plentiful energy...they are meant to reduce access to all of those things....

[ding]

There's lithium batteries in everything these days ... cars, airplanes, computers, phones, watches, toasters, coffee makers, jewelry, desks, clothing, hearing aids, eyeglasses, dildos, washing machines, computers, fireplace grates, fruits and vegetables ...there's a lithium battery in the chip they included in the Covid vaccines ...

THAT niche? ...

Golf carts have been around for a long time now ... no, you're not hauling firewood with a damn golf cart, why do you even suggest that? ... we're taking 90% of passenger vehicles OFF the road, so you're on public transit anyway, why do you care what powers the buses? ...

You're gonna pay the taxes anyway ...

No the niche of rich people owning toys. The average guy living in an apartment ain't buying one.

As opposed to replacing ICE. Do the math.

 

[ReinyDays]

No the niche of rich people owning toys. The average guy living in an apartment ain't buying one.

As opposed to replacing ICE. Do the math.

Like computers and smart phones? ...

But right ... 90% fewer passenger vehicles means only the Rich will have rigs ... as it should be ... everyone else can ride a bike ...

 

[ding]

Like computers and smart phones? ...

But right ... 90% fewer passenger vehicles means only the Rich will have rigs ... as it should be ... everyone else can ride a bike ...

LI-Ion has a niche; computers, cell phones, lawn tools, etc. Replacing all ICE vehicles? Not so much. It's just math.

 

[ReinyDays]

LI-Ion has a niche; computers, cell phones, lawn tools, etc. Replacing all ICE vehicles? Not so much. It's just math.

You're just taking the extreme position because you know you're wrong ... we're not going to be skidding logs with EVs ... ever ... there's no mandate to manufacture EVs ... just CAFE standards ... meaning Ford need only increase the gas mileage on al their other vehicles, mainly that PIG F-150 ...

If Ford wants to build F-150s, they'll have to build EVs ... their choice ...

I know you denounce progress ... and believe there will never be any future improvements on battery technology ... I respectfully disagree ... besides, which piston-engined rig has as little maintenance as an electric motor? ... how long does the typical piston engine last? ... if EVs are bad, why do railroads use diesel-electric locomotives? ...

I'm charging using cheapest-in-the-nation carbon-neutral hydro-electric hyphenated-power ... EVs are cheaper than piston-engined rigs ... and jet engines ... why do you keep including those? ...

 

[ding]

You're just taking the extreme position because you know you're wrong ... we're not going to be skidding logs with EVs ... ever ... there's no mandate to manufacture EVs ... just CAFE standards ... meaning Ford need only increase the gas mileage on al their other vehicles, mainly that PIG F-150 ...

If Ford wants to build F-150s, they'll have to build EVs ... their choice ...

I know you denounce progress ... and believe there will never be any future improvements on battery technology ... I respectfully disagree ... besides, which piston-engined rig has as little maintenance as an electric motor? ... how long does the typical piston engine last? ... if EVs are bad, why do railroads use diesel-electric locomotives? ...

I'm charging using cheapest-in-the-nation carbon-neutral hydro-electric hyphenated-power ... EVs are cheaper than piston-engined rigs ... and jet engines ... why do you keep including those? ...

The extreme position would be replacing all ICE vehicles with EV's. You should replace all of yours.

 

[skye]

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Don't you think that might have to do more with China using Chinese coal to generate electricity and not using foreign oil than their love of the environment or EV's?

View attachment 854816

What? China using coal to generate electricity is an absolute existential requirement for China, whose electricity demand continues to rise by leaps and bounds. Only romantics would imagine it is or can be motivated first of all by “altruistic” motives.

China’s CP technocrats running energy policy — like recently deceased Li Keqiang — nevertheless managed to increase dramatically the percentage of other-than-coal energy production (your graph shows this) through extreme effort even as overall energy and coal production soared. They improved air pollution in cities, closing most small and heavily polluting mines near urban areas using old technology. They have risked building nuclear plants up and down China’s Pacific Coast despite it being in an earthquake and tidal wave area. They have built up solar faster than any country in the world. They have tapped out hydropower and won enmity from down-river neighboring countries as a result.

In the same way their claim to the South China Sea (shared by Taiwan) is largely based on oil and carbon reserves thought to be recoverable there. Though they have increased their own oil production and adopted modern fracking and developed both shale gas and “shale oil” fields they remain far behind the U.S. and dependent on foreign oil sources, overwhelmingly until recently provided by the Gulf Oil states. They have been buying LNG from the U.S. at high prices.

The CP leaders know these foreign sources can “dry up” or be disrupted easily by increasingly hostile U.S. sanctions … as was done to imperialist Japan before Pearl Harbor, which explains in part their more hostile posture and claims in the South China Sea. Actually, for the first time in their entire history China is now building up their own oil reserves, since they now buy more from Russia and Iran at discounted prices. But still, the energy drag on China’s economy of having to buy from foreign sources is … huge.

“Saving the Planet” almost always is a distraction beh8nd which lie nation state and security concerns. Sometimes the motivation is frankly imperialist.

 

[ding]

What? China using coal to generate electricity is an absolute existential requirement for China, whose electricity demand continues to rise by leaps and bounds. Only romantics would imagine it is or can be motivated first of all by “altruistic” motives.

China’s CP technocrats running energy policy — like recently deceased Li Keqiang — nevertheless managed to increase dramatically the percentage of other-than-coal energy production (your graph shows this) through extreme effort even as overall energy and coal production soared. They improved air pollution in cities, closing most small and heavily polluting mines near urban areas using old technology. They have risked building nuclear plants up and down China’s Pacific Coast despite it being in an earthquake and tidal wave area. They have built up solar faster than any country in the world. They have tapped out hydropower and won enmity from down-river neighboring countries as a result. In the same way their claim to the South China Sea (shared by Taiwan) is largely based on oil and carbon reserves thought to be recoverable there. Though they have increased their own oil production and adopted modern fracking and developed both shale gas and “shale oil” fields they remain far behind the U.S. and dependent on foreign oil sources, overwhelmingly until recently provided by the Gulf Oil states. They have been buying LNG from the U.S. at high prices.
The CP leaders know these foreign sources can “dry up” or be disrupted easily by an increasingly hostile U.S. sanctions … as was done to imperialist Japan before Pearl Harbor, wh8ch explains in part their more hostile posture and claims in the South China Sea. Actually, for the first time in their entire history China is now building up their own oil reserves, since they now buy more from Russia and Iran at discounted prices. But still, the energy drag on China’s economy of having to buy from foreign sources is … huge.
“Saving the Planet” almost always is a distraction beh8nd which lie nation state and security concerns. Sometimes the motivation is frankly imperialist.

That's my point. China using EV's is about reducing oil imports. They have tons of coal and hardly any large conventional oil reservoirs.

I'm not sure I would be singing China's praises for anything. But if you want to, go for it. At the end of the day they are a totalitarian regime doing what totalitarian regimes do. Controlling stuff.

 

[Flash]

electric cars are being banned from ships and ferries, there have been too many fires and sinking of ships

The stupid EVs are a real danger in an prone to Flooding. Once flooded they catch on fire. We see it with hurricanes and the floods in Las Vegas and LA this last summer.

 

[Flash]

By the courts, by state legislators, or by industry balking, investors fleeing … whatever.

On the other hand, so far TESLA has proven EVs can carve out a real market for its EVs and its charging technology … at least among certain wealthy folks. But TESLA prices in Europe and China now have to fall quickly if it is to remain competitive with the new Chinese products that are coming out. China seems to have an edge in battery production and economies of scale.

The shear simplicity of EV powered vehicles seem to be allowing production costs to be reduced dramatically, so I personally wouldn’t dismiss their long-term prospects entirely just yet.

It’s actually way too complicated a question for me to express a hard opinion on — but I wouldn’t bet any of my money on American legacy automakers at this point, whether they try to transform to EVs or not.

My original remarks were mostly satirical, which is my standard response when I hear narrow-minded “Know-Nothing” MAGA Trumpsters opining on complicated questions and preaching doom & gloom.

You idiot. China is the biggest polluter in the world. Stop being an asshole by being their apologist. It just makes look like a fool.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Not “praising” Chinese government, ding — just explaining the many real factors involved. It’s almost “survival of the fittest” — and I doubt anyone knows for sure who will come out on top, or what technologies will prove most appropriate, which policies will lead to war and which to peace. The West has many advantages. I’m rooting for Republican and Democratic government protecting individual rights and freedom of conscience and I oppose authoritarian communist dictatorships. If we don’t pay attention to the need to maintain political unity and realistic policies during these challenges, we may just end up weakening ourselves in the coming economic struggles. That’s all I’m saying.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Gasoline was in such short supply in parts of China during the Japanese invasion and even up to the 1990s in some areas, that whole bus fleets and even private cars were hooked up with giant uncompressed gas bags to supply energy for ICE vehicles:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/hmt-forum/1940_gasbag_chrysler_fullsize.jpg

https://www.psihoyos.com/image/I0000FxxgFs4ZzGc

 

[Crick]

Gasoline was in such short supply in parts of China during the Japanese invasion and even up to the 1990s in some areas, that whole bus fleets and even private cars were hooked up with giant uncompressed gas bags to supply energy for ICE vehicles:

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/hmt-forum/1940_gasbag_chrysler_fullsize.jpg

https://www.psihoyos.com/image/I0000FxxgFs4ZzGc

I wonder how much range you could get from a rig like that. I wouldn't think much. The fuel/air ratio for natural gas is 1:10. That bag looks like maybe 30 ft x 8 ft by 4 ft. That's 960 cubic feet. Mixed 10:1 with air gives you 10,560 cubic feet of fuel air mix. Let's say we're running a 3.5 liter gas engine at 2500 rpm. So that's 3.5 liters, 1250 times a minute or 4,375 liters/minute. 10,560 cubic feet x 23.3168 liters/cubic foot gives us 246,225.408 liters. At 2500 rpm, that engine will run for a little over 56 minutes.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Good question! I wonder if they could, in a fix, find a farmer with pigs and methane to add a little kick and mileage to the engine! Lol!

Really it seems “other worldly” to me. But apparently Chinese have always been entrepreneural and clever with machines, like Americans were in those days. Being so poor and lacking capital and resources, they still managed to survive and resist the Japanese invaders.

My Dad was a pilot during the war flying supplies into Kunming China from India. Most of it was gasoline and communications equipment and supplies for the Flying Tigers. Flying “The Hump” — the Himalaya Mountains — in a C-46 twin engine cargo plane was pretty scary, but he came home alright after about 44 missions. Sometimes when the wind was against them they had to dump all the their heavy cargo out the side door just so they could fly higher over the peaks!

Our generation just doesn’t compare I guess. But that’s a whole different story…

 

[ReinyDays]

The extreme position would be replacing all ICE vehicles with EV's. You should replace all of yours.

Will the free market support your proposition? ... we are replacing piston-engined rigs with EVs ... our land is too new, no fossils or fossil fuels ... just lots and lots and lots of water and wind ... EV are the free market solution where electricity is cheapest-in-the-nation ... don't you agree? ... oh, and some of the most expensive gasoline-in-the-nation {Cite}...

The oil will run out ... don't lie and say it won't ... are you so closed minded to think there's won't be better batteries then? ...

 

[ding]

Will the free market support your proposition? ... we are replacing piston-engined rigs with EVs ... our land is too new, no fossils or fossil fuels ... just lots and lots and lots of water and wind ... EV are the free market solution where electricity is cheapest-in-the-nation ... don't you agree? ... oh, and some of the most expensive gasoline-in-the-nation {Cite}...

The oil will run out ... don't lie and say it won't ... are you so closed minded to think there's won't be better batteries then? ...

What's my proposition?

 

[ReinyDays]

What's my proposition?

That laws should be passed preventing EV from coming to market ... just like you want MAGA laws to stop people from installing solar panels on their roof ... stop building hydro-dams and no more wind turbines ... MAGA ...

You just like telling others what to do ... when the fact remains, California will be telling you what to do whether you like it or not ... remember when your car's ignition had to conform to California State law ... ha ha ha ha ha ha .. nation-wide has to use California ignitions ... too funny ...

 

[ding]

That laws should be passed preventing EV from coming to market ... just like you want MAGA laws to stop people from installing solar panels on their roof ... stop building hydro-dams and no more wind turbines ... MAGA ...

You just like telling others what to do ... when the fact remains, California will be telling you what to do whether you like it or not ... remember when your car's ignition had to conform to California State law ... ha ha ha ha ha ha .. nation-wide has to use California ignitions ... too funny ...

When did I say or write any of those things?

 

[ReinyDays]

LI-Ion has a niche; computers, cell phones, lawn tools, etc. Replacing all ICE vehicles? Not so much. It's just math.

Your math is wrong ... the limit on the price of gasoline is infinity ... then we would replace all piston-engine rigs ... don't you believe in the free market? ...

You tell me how long ... Mr Oil Engineer ... and why you think battery technology won't improve in that time ... this trap you set yourself, we both know how long you think the oil will last ... and we'll have electric hover-cars by then, there's folks flying in these things as we type ...

 

[ding]

Your math is wrong ... the limit on the price of gasoline is infinity ... then we would replace all piston-engine rigs ... don't you believe in the free market? ...

You tell me how long ... Mr Oil Engineer ... and why you think battery technology won't improve in that time ... this trap you set yourself, we both know how long you think the oil will last ... and we'll have electric hover-cars by then, there's folks flying in these things as we type ...

How much lithium is needed to replace all internal combustion engines in the world?

You can't simply calculate how many electric vehicles (EV) batteries are needed for the worldwide fleet to replace internal combustion engines. First of all there is no exact number of internal combustion engines in the world. Secondly there is variability in the battery size of EV batteries...

www.usmessageboard.com

How many years would it take to mine enough lithium to make enough batteries to replace all of the internal combustion engines in the world?

The current rate of mining lithium is 100,000 metric tons. The amount of lithium needed to replace all internal combustion engines is 17,712,640 metric tons. So the number of years to mine enough lithium to replace all internal combustion engines is 177 years (17,712,640 metric tons divided...

www.usmessageboard.com