27 Jan 2020 Promedmail Epidemiological Analysis
'....We estimate that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 Jan 2020 a total of 11,341 people had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict it will be sustained by a larger (by 4 Feb 2020) 191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649, infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Out model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China. With a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 Feb 2020. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other coronaviruses.'