Russian invasion of Ukraine showed all the problems of the democratic countries’ “unity”

[alexa]

All Russian soldiers have to leave the Ukraine - specially they have also to leave the regions of the Urkraine which Russia is annexing.

You expect them to leave before negotiations. That is simply your way to avoid negotiations. No one ends a war before it has ended. Bye the way did the Iraq people invite the US and the UK in? Where was your problem with that. Bye the way asking your adversery to lay down their arms before negotiation is the Israeli way of doing things. Interestingly it also has the same intent which is to make sure there are no negotiations. The US does not want a negotiated settlement. It wants Russia destroyed which will either be pussy footing around for years and it looks like the whole world is going to go into recession about that - so either that or intensifying it so that ends all of us by nuclear war - that what you want?

Not really. All German companies left Russia and no one likes to go back. The Russian behavior motivates no one to do business with Russia. We will find other ways.

Your Corporate Capitalists maybe did. Also why did they? Because the US was threatening them if they didn't. That is hardly a free choice. That you believe they are the only people in Germany lets me know how one tracked your mind is bit of course with your cutting off of a few words here and there no one would know what you were talking about.

Yes. He did do political suicide.

Putin came in because the Western Ukrainianers were upping the fighting against the Russian speaking Ukrainians. He clearly had been wrongly informed about the situation in Ukraine. It gave the West the ability to blame him for what is going on and for them to get on their own private war to destroy Russia. Of course they always leave out the fact that war had been going on for 8 years against the East Ukranians albeit with Russian help of some kind.

Whether it turns out to be political suicide will depend on how this ends. You do not take up weapons against your own people which is what Ukraine did. The propaganda we got in the UK and you probably got in Germany about Ukraine being this squeaky clean poor little victim is far from true. Likewise the US/NATO position is one which the US had been up to since the end of the soviet Union. Trying to surround Russia with Nato while Russia tells them again and again this is something they cannot take for their own security and indeed something the US promised not to do before Russia agreed to the reunification of Germany.

Just as the Western EU supported Ukrainers are not squeaky clean in what they are up to, nor is the US in its bid to destroy Russia or as it is put stop Russia being a Superpower, something if it gets near to being achieved will possibly result in nuclear Armageddon.

john mearsheimer

what about him.

Beause Russia had sent comabatants into this borderland of the borderland, the Ukraine.

It doesn't change the reality of what happened in Ukraine which was like a civil war. I had thought that Russia was stirring things up but I am aware that was because I only heard the UK propaganda at that time. There was still a long line of things going on dividing the East and West of Ukraine from the time the choice was made to go with Russia and the West of Ukraine working with the US worked to undermine democracy.

They include shooting at Maidan with belief that this was not as was initially illustrated his police firing at Protestors but agent provocateurs. Even the BBC managed to show that the building where most of the shooting seemed to come from appeared to be occupied by non police. I think they said Right Secter but cannot remember for sure.
The ousting of the President
The banning of speaking Russian
New Parliament within which Victoria Nuland chose who would be in what position in - in other words Puppet US Parliament.
This itself is a civil war before you get to the killing of Russian speaking east Ukrainians.

I would need to look up the beginning of fighting in the East but given that this war is in reality the US working to surround Russia with NATO, it really is hardly surprising that especially seeing how Russian speakers are being treated, Russia would feel in danger.

Eh? ... No idea who was babbeling what within the UK in this context. On a long day people say a lot of things.

It wasn't babbling in the UK. It was as I said.

The NATO is a mighty defense alliance. The moment Russia will attack the NATO Russia will be lost.

That moment is when we will have nuclear war. You believe it is worth it that we have nuclear war in order that the US can destroy Russia. You have missed out on the fact that you will be dead as well. From here you are just making things up and taking things out of context.

 

[zaangalewa]

You expect them to leave before negotiations.

Which negotiations on what base of which lies from Putin? Russia has to give back what it robbed - and not only this: Russia has to repair the damages it had done and has to pay compensation for personal sufferings. We do not live in the 19th century any longer - we also do not live in the 20th century any longer. This is the 21st century and the begin of the third millenium. More worse than Russia is nearly no one able to start into a new millenium with new questions and new challenges.

That is simply your way to avoid negotiations.

Do you speak in the name of Russia? Do I have the right to speak in the name of the West? Who is able to force Russia and the Ukraine to do what we wil decide? Then let us start whie no one has any right to use any war weapon in this conflict any longer.

No one ends a war before it has ended.

What's wrong. As far as I know the 30 years war - an international war in the German lands - was the first war which was not won nor lost. It was solved. The solution was called Westfälischer Friede = Peace of Westphalia.

Bye the way did the Iraq people invite the US and the UK in?

The Bush doctrine to havw the right to do a preemptive strike was absolutelly wrong. But this is a problem between the USA and their allies who did do this war.

Where was your problem with that.

I'm a German - and I was very proud on my fellow countrymen who voted for Gerhard Schröder - the much more bad choice - only because Gerhard Schröder (SPD) and Joschka Fischer (Die Grünen) made clear they will not go together with the USA into the war in Iraq. Now we have again a kind of left-wing government Olaf Scholz (SPD), Annalena Baerbock + Robert Habeck (Die Grünen) and Christian Linder (FDP) and only in unimportant details differs the common politics of the USA and Germany. If no nuclear weapons would exist then I fear Russia would now not exist any longer. What Russia did do and is doing was and is extremely stupid, brutal and not tolerable.

Bye the way asking your adversery to lay down their arms before negotiation is the Israeli way of doing things.

About what should Israel do negotiatoins with whom and what has this to do with the totally wrong behavior of Putin to try to destroy the European roots of Russia and to sell her for less than nothing to China?

Interestingly it also has the same intent which is to make sure there are no negotiations.

Looks like you prefer to be an idiot from Putins grace instead to try to start to think real.

The US does not want a negotiated settlement.

A what?

It wants Russia destroyed which will either be pussy footing around for years and it looks like the whole world is going to go into recession about that - so either that or intensifying it so that ends all of us by nuclear war - that what you want?

No one likes a destroyed Russia - Putin destroys Russia. The question is: Are all Russinas only slaves of Putin any longer - or do they still have another chance?

Your Corporate Capitalists maybe did.

What has this to do with the souvereign country Ukraine - nothing or nothing - windbag?

Also why did they? Because the US was threatening them if they didn't. That is hardly a free choice.

Putins weapons let the Ukraine which free choice? To bomb down Moscow?

That you believe they are the only people in Germany lets me know how one tracked your mind is bit of course with your cutting off of a few words here and there no one would know what you were talking about.

You underestimate what it means to make German Vulcans angry. Ask ... no they are dead. But ask ... damn they are also dead ... perhaps you should ask ... damn ... nevertheless we are nice and friendly people.

Putin came in because the Western Ukrainianers were upping the fighting against the Russian speaking Ukrainians.

What's stupid nonsense. Many Ukrainians had been murdered from Putins terrorizing combatants he had sent From Russia into the Ukraine.

He clearly had been wrongly informed about the situation in Ukraine. It gave the West the ability to blame him for what is going on and for them to get on their own private war to destroy Russia. Of course they always leave out the fact that war had been going on for 8 years against the East Ukranians albeit with Russian help of some kind.

Whether it turns out to be political suicide will depend on how this ends.

Putin is already dead. He will need only some time to find this out.

You do not take up weapons against your own people which is what Ukraine did.

Always nice to meet someone who has not any light idea about the German history. Whatever. The Ukraine likes to be a member of the EU - so everyone is save in the Ukraine because racism and enemyship is not compatible with the EU. Joy for example is compatible with the EU - "live and let live" is also compatible with the EU.

The propaganda we got in the UK

You are a Brit? ... a very strange Brit, I guess.

and you probably got in Germany about Ukraine being this squeaky clean poor little victim is far from true. Likewise the US/NATO position is one

The NATO has no positions. It is a defense alliance. Who attacks any member of the NATO will get very serios problems.

which the US had been up to since the end of the soviet Union. Trying to surround Russia with Nato while Russia tells them again and again this is something they cannot take for their own security and indeed something the US promised not to do before Russia agreed to the reunification of Germany.

The NATO did not attack Russia. But Russia became and becomes more and more aggressive so more and more nations like to be a member of the defense shield NATO. Russia is lucky that the Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. But the wisdom to do so forces now all nations in the world to help the Ukraine with weapons.

Just as the Western EU supported Ukrainers are not squeaky clean in what they are up to, nor is the US in its bid to destroy Russia or as it is put stop Russia being a Superpower, something if it gets near to being achieved will possibly result in nuclear Armageddon.

And what about to clear all problems in a big battle between European and Russian knights? We could produce a Hollywood film out of it. Or much better: A Bollywood film. That's more funny.

what about him.


It doesn't change the reality of what happened in Ukraine which was like a civil war.

A "civil war" made from Russian combatants who came over the borders from Russia into the Ukraine is no real civil war.

I had thought that Russia was stirring things up but I am aware that was because I only heard the UK propaganda at that time. There was still a long line of things going on dividing the East and West of Ukraine from the time the choice was made to go with Russia and the West of Ukraine working with the US worked to undermine democracy.

They include shooting at Maidan with belief that this was not as was initially illustrated his police firing at Protestors but agent provocateurs. Even the BBC managed to show that the building where most of the shooting seemed to come from appeared to be occupied by non police. I think they said Right Secter but cannot remember for sure.
The ousting of the President
The banning of speaking Russian
New Parliament within which Victoria Nuland chose who would be in what position in - in other words Puppet US Parliament.
This itself is a civil war before you get to the killing of Russian speaking east Ukrainians.

I would need to look up the beginning of fighting in the East but given that this war is in reality the US working to surround Russia with NATO, it really is hardly surprising that especially seeing how Russian speakers are being treated, Russia would feel in danger.

It wasn't babbling in the UK. It was as I said.

That moment is when we will have nuclear war. You believe it is worth it that we have nuclear war in order that the US can destroy Russia. You have missed out on the fact that you will be dead as well. From here you are just making things up and taking things out of context.

I guess I have an idea which could solve your British problems. What do you think about to do a Brexit and to make your nation incompatible with the EU while we will start to think about how to help he Ukraine to make herselve compatible with the EU so she will be one day able to be one of the full and free partners within the EU?

 

[Ringo]

 

[Ringo]

The NATO did not attack Russia.

The USSR did not attack the USA in 1962 either.
But for some reason, the United States threw a tantrum and almost unleashed a nuclear war 60 years ago...
Why was that?...

 

[zaangalewa]

The USSR did not attack the USA in 1962 either.

True. Nevertheless the USA had the duty to take care for their own survival. Nukes are anything else than harmless. From my point of view everyone is a criminal who threatens with nukes. The moment Vladimir Putin said he will send nukes to Berlin and/or other metropoles in the western world he spoke his own death sentence - but perhaps also the death sentence for Russia and perhaps even all Russians, Europeans, Asians and Americans. The relativelly poor military structures in Africa are perhaps able to save this continent.

But for some reason, the United States threw a tantrum and almost unleashed a nuclear war 60 years ago...
Why was that?...

Human vanity, arrogance and hubris. Nukes are weapons which came 300 years too early into history. Big power means also big responsibility and this needs a big self control. As well Russia and the USA are not famous for self control on reason of the own free will and wisdom on reason to love it to be wise.

 

[Ringo]

"Russia should not have been pushed to invade Ukraine after 20 years of trying to avoid it by offering diplomatic measures to the West. All these reports about the atrocities of Russians, this is what I just called Western propaganda" - Roger Waters, founder of Pink Floyd

 

[Sbiker]

All Russian soldiers have to leave the Ukraine

... to make from Ukraine a giant Bucha with nazi butchers... Such a bloody intentions.. I thought we're all for the humanism, at least at words...

 

[zaangalewa]

... to make from Ukraine a giant Bucha with nazi butchers... Such a bloody intentions.. I thought we're all for the humanism, at least at words...

Only to make something clear: I am a German. Try to speak reasonable with me.

 

[Ringo]

I am a German. Try to speak reasonable with me.

Hitler kaput

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Since the first days of March EU and NATO have begun execution of their plan of global isolating Russia. Putin’s invasion to Ukraine was used as an excellent reason. This plan contained several actions which should have destroyed Russian economic and technological sectors and included strong sanctions, ban of the Russian energy import, including natural gas, oil and coal, declining Russian cooperation with the biggest world companies, cutting off their main banks form SWIFT, etc.
Moreover, European countries began to intensify arms supply to Ukraine to withstand Russian aggression. At least 21 countries sent their weapon systems and supplies to the fighting zone, including tanks, helicopters, MLRS, UAVs and so on. NATO instructors were appointed to provide combat training to Ukrainian armed forces.
One of the main goals of European leaders was to support Ukrainian refugees. To achieve this aim several actions were taken – simplifying border policies, creating all possible conditions for accommodation.
It looked like Europe while being involved in escalating conflict would unite and follow one way together. But while European leaders are busy in dealing with foreign policy questions, Europe have begun to divide inside.

Natural gas & inflation
When the war began, democratic world responded with far-reaching sanctions against Moscow. In response to that Putin declared that “unfriendly” countries would pay for Russian natural gas in rubles, and if not import would be stopped for them. Of course this demand caused great indignation of European leaders, which unanimously rejected it on the G7 meeting saying that “all G-7 ministers agreed completely that this (would be) a one-sided and clear branch of the existing contracts”. That moment can be called the beginning of the European crisis.
It’s important to point out that the EU depends on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas. So, if Europe admired to stop using it they should be able to find something that could be an equal alternative. As for now they could not deal with it.
It’s undeniable that the gas prices had been already high before the war started. But when Europe refused to pay for natural gas in Russian national currency the “inflation bomb” finally exploded.

View attachment 675513
Inflation rate in EU countries and in Estonia particularly

As it’s presented in the graphics, inflation in Europe hits its celling for the first time in 40 years. Moreover, it’s not even a limit as experts make their predictions that CPI will be higher than nowadays. It’s not a secret that high inflation has an influence on a price of at least everything – from similar goods to high technologies and energy resources.
It’s interesting to note that European leaders’ attempts to make an excuse for this serious fail looked very humiliating. Moreover, all their actions which were taken to stabilize the situation make the crisis in Europe more and more visible. For example, Romanian Deputy Prime Minister Hunor Kelemen said: “First of all, we, the European Union, will have to pay for the sanctions against Russia… Truth be told, we will all pay the price this winter while, unfortunately, there are no signs that the end of war is near… It well be a harsh winter, perhaps the harshest one in the last 40-50-60 years.”
What’s the reason of such an aggravation of the problem? Despite the fact that G7 leaders decided not to pay for natural gas in rubles, some countries took a step back and did completely the opposite. And it was the key moment when national interests collided with alliance direction.

View attachment 675514
Countries which are reported to pay for natural gas in rubles

This map shows which countries agreed (green) and refused (red) to pay for natural gas in rubles. Russia has already cut off supplies to Poland, Bulgaria and Finland. Countries which are highlighted by green are said to accept Russian demand and open ruble accounts at Gazprombank.
At the beginning of July the European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said: “Energy prices are high. People – rightly so – expect us to do something about it.”
So what’s the announced decision? Not so long ago EU Commission revealed their emergency plan which calls for public, commercial buildings and offices to be heated to a maximum of 19 degrees from autumn.
EU does not want to pay Russia for natural gas but in fact they have got no choice. They should deal with this winter and then develop the plan what to do next.

Arms supply
Since the conflict broke out, European countries had begun to actively supply Ukraine with amount of weapons. But how was declared earlier, everything has got its limit and when it was clear that war would be long and slow, arms supply strongly reduced.
The first country which was criticized for it became Germany for its decision not to send heavy weapons to war zone.
While Ukraine strongly needs this kind of weapons not so many countries are ready to give it to them while being aware of potential escalation of conflict with Russia.
Germany is not an exception. Now their government is catching critics not only from EU/NATO partners but from opposition parties inside the country. It’s truly disappointing for German chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose approval rating sinks lower and lower every month.
One more European country which refused to send weapons to Ukraine was Bulgaria. Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov confirmed that his government has no plans to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, saying that Bulgaria has “done enough” to help Kyiv with humanitarian relief. “We’ve done enough and we’ll continue to support Ukraine,” he said.
Moreover, Switzerland also didn’t allow the re-export of Swiss war material to Ukraine. Following their policy of military neutrality it was declared that Bern rejected Berlin’s request to send around 12400 rounds of 35-millimetre Swiss ammunition for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, and for Piranha III wheeled APCs to Kyiv. Similarly, Switzerland denied Denmark’s request to send 22 Swiss-made Piranha III wheeled APCs to Ukraine. Switzerland also vetoed Poland’s request to send Swiss-made war material to Ukraine.

Hungary
Decision-making inside the coalition is not as simple as it looks. There are a lot of examples when representatives from different countries cannot deal with each other discussing various types of questions. But Hungary made a significant step aside if we consider cooperation with EU and NATO.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during his race for election to a fourth consecutive term said that Hungary would stay out of Ukrainian war.
“Russia looks at Russian interests, while Ukraine looks at Ukrainian interests. Neither the United States, nor Brussels would think with Hungarians’ mind and feel with Hungarians’ hearts. We must stand up for our own interests,” Orban said. “We must stay out of this war… therefore we will not send any troops or weapons to the battlegrounds.”
As a result, Hungary not only doesn’t support Ukraine by weapons but doesn’t allow the transit through its territory.
It’s the whole opposite position in comparison with EU/NATO members. For example, nobody was surprised when Serbia declared that they would not join overall sanctions against Russia and its government while being considered one of the Russian allies; however, when EU and NATO member concludes that participation in the conflict even by supplying Ukrainian army would be harmful for the country interests, it feels at least unusual.
This opinion can be a little bit controversial but at least it deserves some respect. When the interests of alliance contradict national interests and nation’s leader is brave enough not to blindly follow EU/NATO recommendations but stand on his way to improve lives of his country’s citizens – it’s kind of question for European leaders to think about.

Who orders the music?
It’s not a secret that armed conflict has got some visible reasons of its escalation and it serves for the people who are interested in it.
On the one hand, it could be quite logical to find one to blame in conflict’s escalation but the complexity of this situation mean that it should be viewed not only from one side.
If we are going to suggest that this war will end with Russia achieving all its goals – the so-called “release” of Ukraine and annexation of its territories as it was with Crimea – the last guy who laughs will be exactly Putin. But it’s not the only way possible.
It’s important to find out who makes profit from the situation that armed conflict in Ukraine hasn’t any tendency to end soon. Anybody quickly can think about the United States, who has got their own interests in this war.
US government is fighting for saving US dollar as a main world currency. The reason is that some countries including China and Russia are step-by-step refusing from mutual payments in dollar and beginning to make payments in national currency. This fact of weakening dollar of course is confusing US when they are fighting for its strengthening and, as a result, for stability of their economy.
Moreover, Russian energy ban opens doors for the increased energy import from the US. The US will send 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the European countries. As a result, US economy will feel safer and Europe will depend on US stronger.
In addition to that, also Russia in the last 20 years developed their economy as well as their armed forces. Putin declared that time for mono-polar world was over. It’s doubtful that US will agree with this statement so easy, and it’s indirectly confirmed by US enormous arms supply to Ukraine, including HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) which made a significant shift in this war.
If we talk about arms supply - war in Ukraine is a good chance for some countries including US to send Ukrainians their old weapons and equipment. While it’s off to Ukraine, US supposedly will update their weapon systems.
It will be wrong to admit that only US is making significant contribution to the Ukrainian conflict continuation. But it’s a matter of fact that US are trying to strengthen their position as a world leader by way of supporting the prolongation of this war.

Conclusion
It’s not a secret that the large part of the above-mentioned problems – natural gas prices, inflation, pro-Russian governments – had existed long before the Ukrainian war escalated. Unfortunately, at this moment actions of the European countries’ governments and Russian counteractions have leaded only to negative consequences concerning EU citizens’ wellbeing. It’s the stalemate situation – on the one hand if EU/NATO countries follow US requests and approve economic sanctions against Russia it causes financial losses not only for Putin’s government but for themselves (for example, not so long ago dollar for the first time in 20 years exchanged for euro equally) and without any doubt makes their citizens angry. As a result British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi have decided to leave their posts because of their lack of ability to handle the situation.
On the other hand if European leaders refuse to take measures against Russia which is based on their desire not to leave their citizens without cheap gas and fuel, - they are going through tough critics form their colleagues form EU and NATO.
We can suppose how the situation in Europe will develop in the upcoming months. First variant – Europe follows its way of absolute support of Ukraine, refusing the cooperation with Russia, what makes a great advantage for US but not for Europeans.
Second way is to stop confrontation with Russia and search for peaceful decisions of existing problems with Putin as well as between European leaders. Why is this variant look quite acceptable? Everything depends on the war ending and timing; analysts are making the different predictions, European leaders strongly hope that everything would be solved before the winter begins, but nobody truly believes it. Moreover, they don’t approach the end of the war while giving Ukraine enormous amount of weapons. What we have for now – Europe is frozen in waiting for the winter and its consequences, searching for US and Middle East natural gas and it is not clear now how long they could live using only their resources. Anyways, the majority of European governments would have decided to buy natural gas in Russia despite the fact that it would strengthen Russia’s economy.
In a short-term perspective a lot of these problems could be solved by way of compromise and restarting the dialogue with Russian government. Can Europe follow this way? Without a doubt. Will they have a chance to do it? Probably not, because Europe depends on US as well as it depends on Russia. How can they find a decision which would be acceptable for anyone? It’s kind of question which can’t be answered for 5 months. It’s clear that Europe will soon collide with very cold winter. How is it justified and what will be Europeans attitude for these events, – upcoming half of the year will show us that. We can only wait what decision will be made by the leaders of “free” and “independent” Europe.

The Strong Eurine Stream Split Up Into a Weak Spray, Like Spit

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Gog and Magog.

America's Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Fell off Their Bicycles

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

The USSR did not attack the USA in 1962 either.
But for some reason, the United States threw a tantrum and almost unleashed a nuclear war 60 years ago...
Why was that?...

That's Why JFK Got Assassinated, and Deserved to Be

 

[task0778]

"Russian invasion of Ukraine showed all the problems of the democratic countries’ “unity”"


The unity issue with respect to democratic countries as I see it is that there were too many democratic countries that got their shorts in a knot over climate change and global warming, and allowed that issue to override their concern about Russian aggression. They forgot that Russia is NOT a democracy, and Putin's goals and his methods to achieve them were in conflict with what most democratic countries would accept. The EU allowed themselves to be too reliant on Russian LNG and turned off most of their nuclear power plants, which left them vulnerable to Putin's aims to reinstitute the old USSR, at least as much as he can. There's nothing wrong with a democratic country pursuing it's own objectives, but the EU as a whole pretty much signed up for and executed measures to fight CC/GW, which their electorates agreed to after being frightened to death by the CC/GW hysteria. IMHO, they just went too far and too fast, promoting and pushing green policies that weren't cost-effective and couldn't or didn't supply the power they were promised and needed.

 

[zaangalewa]

Hitler kaput

Idiot alive.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The original OP from back at the end of July was a reasonably balanced assessment. Even today, after the incompetent adventurism of Putin’s bloody invasion has been demonstrated, after the Ukrainian advances, the final outcome is unclear.

The “unity” of NATO countries may hold through the winter. Kursk may fall even before winter. Putin may be removed. Or not.

The threat of continuing escalation is real. If the Ukrainians do well, will the U.S. really encourage, finance and arm them to try to retake Crimea? And what happens if, as expected, the Republican “America First” party wins big in November, or later in 2024? I am not a Trumpster. But it seems to me this is a race to the bottom. Which collapses first? Western unity against Russia or the Russian Federation itself?

I suspect even the American neo-cons are beginning to worry about what happens if Putin hangs on and the Ukrainians make advances. Putin still has options like destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. I believe the Russians probably still have the technical capacity to set off a high altitude nuclear Electro-Magnetic Pulse to cripple large areas of Ukraine without causing deaths. How would the U.S. and NATO respond then? By next spring and summer I suppose we will know more.

All told this war is a disaster for everybody. It should never have been allowed to develop, but that would have required far-sighted leadership/statesmanship from the West going back to 2008. Russian society is deeply troubled and its economy is rotten and becoming worse under Putin’s dictatorship, but the reality of Russian “imperial” chauvinism and internal brittleness is a long-established fact that the West should have considered more carefully before it started encouraging the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine.

The early exhilaration and “romance” of Maidan for anti-Russian Ukrainians is probably slowly disappearing. Only hatred and vengeance remain. The question is not really what the people there want anymore. The war can still be ended through a cease fire, but I suspect the West and the Ukrainian Army & regime still hope for Putin’s downfall. Maybe even Russia’s collapse and breakup. The U.S. is not ready yet to pressure Zelensky to offer a ceasefire allowing Crimea to remain in Russian hands, and perhaps a return to something approaching the pre-February lines in Donbas.

 

[toomuchtime_]

The original OP from back at the end of July was a reasonably balanced assessment. Even today, after the incompetent adventurism of Putin’s bloody invasion has been demonstrated, after the Ukrainian advances, the final outcome is unclear.

The “unity” of NATO countries may hold through the winter. Kursk may fall even before winter. Putin may be removed. Or not.

The threat of continuing escalation is real. If the Ukrainians do well, will the U.S. really encourage, finance and arm them to try to retake Crimea? And what happens if, as expected, the Republican “America First” party wins big in November, or later in 2024? I am not a Trumpster. But it seems to me this is a race to the bottom. Which collapses first? Western unity against Russia or the Russian Federation itself?

I suspect even the American neo-cons are beginning to worry about what happens if Putin hangs on and the Ukrainians make advances. Putin still has options like destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. I believe the Russians probably still have the technical capacity to set off a high altitude nuclear Electro-Magnetic Pulse to cripple large areas of Ukraine without causing deaths. How would the U.S. and NATO respond then? By next spring and summer I suppose we will know more.

All told this war is a disaster for everybody. It should never have been allowed to develop, but that would have required far-sighted leadership/statesmanship from the West going back to 2008. Russian society is deeply troubled and its economy is rotten and becoming worse under Putin’s dictatorship, but the reality of Russian “imperial” chauvinism and internal brittleness is a long-established fact that the West should have considered more carefully before it started encouraging the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine.

The early exhilaration and “romance” of Maidan for anti-Russian Ukrainians is probably slowly disappearing. Only hatred and vengeance remain. The question is not really what the people there want anymore. The war can still be ended through a cease fire, but I suspect the West and the Ukrainian Army & regime still hope for Putin’s downfall. Maybe even Russia’s collapse and breakup. The U.S. is not ready yet to pressure Zelensky to offer a ceasefire allowing Crimea to remain in Russian hands, and perhaps a return to something approaching the pre-February lines in Donbas.

Silly stuff. No one in his right mind would trust any agreement signed by Putin unless there were a guarantor able to enforce that agreement, and the only such guarantor is NATO. The war us simply unwinnable for Russia no matter what horrors Putin has planned.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Silly stuff. No one in his right mind would trust any agreement signed by Putin unless there were a guarantor able to enforce that agreement, and the only such guarantor is NATO. The war us simply unwinnable for Russia no matter what horrors Putin has planned.

Who spoke about “trust,” or Russia “winning”? I spoke about the circumstances that might lead to a ceasefire, and the threat that the war might go nuclear. I also discussed the possibility that Putin himself will be removed.

 

[ESay]

Who spoke about “trust”? I spoke about the conditions and circumstances that might lead to a ceasefire, and the threat that the war might go nuclear. I also discussed the possibility that Putin himself will be removed.

I keep saying this over and over again. The Korea scenario.

 

[Ringo]

Silly stuff. No one in his right mind would trust any agreement signed by Putin unless there were a guarantor able to enforce that agreement, and the only such guarantor is NATO.

The universe and аmerican hypocrisy are endless. Although, I'm not sure about the universe...(с) Nicolaus Copernicus

 

[toomuchtime_]

Who spoke about “trust,” or Russia “winning”? I spoke about the circumstances that might lead to a ceasefire, and the threat that the war might go nuclear. I also discussed the possibility that Putin himself will be removed.

Without trust there can be no agreement with Russia and it is impossible to trust anything Putin or any other Russian proposes until Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine.