toomuchtime_
Gold Member
- Dec 29, 2008
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Russia's participation in Syria is costly and unpopular so I think Trump will easily be able to reach a deal with Putin to support Russia keeping its naval base in return to dropping its support of Assad and to help us stabilize Syria afterwards. More difficult will be trying to find a way to satisfy Russia's security concerns about NATO states on its border.Obama never cared, I agree. US Syrian policy, put in play by Bush and carried out by Obama, led to the probability of hostilities with Russia. There was a concerted effort to put pressure on Russia to try and limit Russia's response to the Syrian situation. I think Trump is going to have to change course on Syria and I'm not sure he can do it.Conciliation with Russia hasn't worked for Obama because Obama never asked the question, what does Putin want? Putin has been clear about what he wants but no one in the Obama WH seems to have heard him or cared.
Trump prides himself on being a negotiator and the first things you have to know when entering a negotiation are what exactly you want and what exactly does the other person want. Putin has been clear that he wants two things: Russia's naval base on the Mediterranean and a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Bush41 had promised Gorbachev the buffer zone if Russia would liberate its satellite states, but Bill Clinton reneged on that promise and allowed several of these states to join NATO. Trump will have to try to reestablish the trust that existed between Bush41 and Gorbachev and which has been largely destroyed by our last three presidents in order to arrive at an arrangement that will satisfy Putin's concerns and ours.