In the U.S., Blue States Outnumber Red States, 20 to 12
Hawaii and Northeastern states among the most blue in 2012
by Lydia Saad
Gallup determines the partisan orientation of each state by subtracting the total percentage of adults identifying as or leaning Republican from those identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic, thus creating a "Democratic advantage" figure. Positive values indicate a state is more Democratic than Republican, while negative values indicate it is more Republican than Democratic.
The findings are based on Gallup Daily tracking from January through December 2012, encompassing interviews with more than 321,000 U.S. adults, including at least 1,000 in each of 47 states. Each state's data are weighted to match U.S. Census demographic parameters for that state's adult population.
On average in 2012 Gallup Daily tracking, 45% of all U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic and 41% identified as or leaned Republican. That compares with a
47% Democratic vs. 42% Republican split in party identification, according to aggregated Gallup and
USA Today/Gallup stand-alone polls in 2012.
Democrats Pick Up One Net State in 2012, Republicans Lose Five
Fourteen states met the threshold for "solid Democratic" states in 2012, adding Michigan and Minnesota to the 12 that met that threshold
in 2011. The Democrats had a net loss of one Democratic-leaning state, losing West Virginia and Kentucky (in addition to Michigan and Minnesota), but picking up Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Oregon. Thus, overall, 20 states were in the Democratic column in 2012, up from 19 in 2011, but still significantly fewer than Gallup found in 2008 and 2009.
In 2012, Republicans lost a total of five GOP-advantage states, including four Republican-leaning states (Indiana, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Texas) and one solid Republican state (South Dakota). While down from a total of 17 states in 2011, the Republicans' current 12 remains higher than in 2008 through 2010.
As a result of these various shifts, there were four more "competitive" states in 2012 than in 2011, for a total of 19 -- nearly double the number seen in Gallup's baseline year of 2008.
2008 was a recent high point for Democratic political identification, likely owing to the waning popularity of Republican President George W. Bush amid the economic crisis that erupted that year, and Barack Obama's ultimate appeal late in the presidential campaign. That year, Gallup found 36 states either solidly Democratic or leaning to the party, and only five solidly or leaning Republican. Those figures largely held in
2009, but started shifting in
2010, with fewer Democratic states and an increased number of Republican and competitive states. In
2011, the parties were at rough numerical parity, but in 2012, Democratic states once again outnumbered Republican states.
Red and Blue States Are Geographically Separate
Geographically, the partisan orientation of the states in 2012 shows Democrats maintaining a stronghold in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast, while the Republicans do best in the center of the country and the South.
