Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!

[TemplarKormac]

You obviously did not understand what I wrote.

Landmark has a mathematical BIAS to the RIGHT, not to the LEFT. I just proved it.

This means that Nunn is likely doing BETTER in Georgia right now than Landmark predicts.

Of course, it's 4 months until election time, a lot can happen in that time.

But right now, Nunn has the upper hand.

I do understand what you wrote. If it had a mathematical bias to the RIGHT, then why does the current Landmark poll have Nunn winning by 6 points over Perdue and Kingston by 8? So, how can such be explained? If there is a 3 percent polling bias, either she's clobbering both of them, or barely winning against them. Then you have to factor the margin of error in there as well. Meaning stat, that she may be outperforming as your raw math tells, but polling bias works both ways.

She would be winning by 9 points over Perdue, and 11 points over Kingston of the polling bias were further to the left, if they were further to the right, the margin would be 3 points over Perdue and 5 points over Kingston.

Anywho, the SUSA poll might be six weeks old, but you were trumpeting the Landmark poll until you bothered to check their track record, they are bullshit as you just said. So, were you not jumping the gun there a bit earlier?

You really aren't that dense, are you?

There are two different values because she is being pitted against two different candidates! Even a first grader can understand that.

Mathematical bias is simply proof that the last set of polls from this company tended to predict more to the right than the actual result.

Using that as a likely template, it could very well mean that the margins currently predicted for Nunn, since she is a Democrat and not a Republican, are being UNDERSTATED, because the pollster has a mathematical bias to the Right and not to the Left. So, no, she is not just barely winning over them.

I picked the Landmark poll because it is the most recent one and there is no other poll within a two-week frame of this one to compare it with. The SUSA poll, for these purposes, is just too old.

Either you are being intentionally stupid or you are just trolling. Either way, you make the Right look bad with the bullshit you are writing here.

My posts stand as they are. I have presented actual data and the analysis is correct.

Tough shit for you.

You really aren't that dense, are you?

Actually, I was less dense than I was a month ago. You can thank Joe for that.

There are two different values because she is being pitted against two different candidates! Even a first grader can understand that.

A first grader could see how you flip flopped on that poll.

Mathematical bias is simply proof that the last set of polls from this company tended to predict more to the right than the actual result.

You would have made no mention of it had you come to the opposite conclusion.

I picked the Landmark poll because it is the most recent one and there is no other poll within a two-week frame of this one to compare it with. The SUSA poll, for these purposes, is just too old.

Spare me the justifications, Stat. You picked the poll specifically because of it's Republican leaning nature, seeing as how Nunn was winning in a right leaning firm's poll, you started touting it about for all to see. Then when you showed their inconsistencies on polling data you dismissed them.

Either you are being intentionally stupid or you are just trolling. Either way, you make the Right look bad with the bullshit you are writing here.

With your posting and name calling, you make the left sound desperate. As they, and you, should be. A leftist such as yourself had to spin a right leaning poll. That's incredibly sad. I caught you in several inconsistencies. The pattern of your argument says so.

My posts stand as they are. I have presented actual data and the analysis is correct.

Your posts only stand because you want them to. They stand on a fantasy you dreamed up. I normally attribute that to folks who wear the 'rose colored glasses.' So enamored with that poll that you were willing to ignore reality to show how one right leaning poll showing a left wing candidate winning would trump them all, until you got into the woodwork. Your data is impeccable, your logic is flawed. With your statistical brain, you managed to destroy your own premise. Move along now.

Tough shit for you.

Pretty easy shit, actually.

 

[JoeB131]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

Georgia elected Zell Miller and Max Cleland.

And the only reason why this seat is open is that Saxby Chamblis (the guy who compared a triple amputee war vet to Bin Laden) was no longer capable of maintaining the level of crazy to be a Republican these days.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

And that my friend, is what an objective liberal looks like.

 

[NYcarbineer]

And for the record, citing Politics USA is not very convincing. They are a left leaning source who would do anything to spin the polling data.

What's your evidence of that?

 

[Peach]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

Georgia elected Zell Miller and Max Cleland.

And the only reason why this seat is open is that Saxby Chamblis (the guy who compared a triple amputee war vet to Bin Laden) was no longer capable of maintaining the level of crazy to be a Republican these days.

That was before Obama, which energized the "base".

 

[Redfish]

Georgia will not elect a female white version of Obama. Dream on libs---but it ain't hapnin.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

Georgia elected Zell Miller and Max Cleland.

And the only reason why this seat is open is that Saxby Chamblis (the guy who compared a triple amputee war vet to Bin Laden) was no longer capable of maintaining the level of crazy to be a Republican these days.

Elected Zell Miller, and regretted it. He was notorious for his flip flopping on issues. Other than Roy Barnes, there hasn't been another Democratic governor in the State of Georgia since then. Sonny Perdue (elected twice), and Nathan Deal, currently, leading Jason Carter in the polls thus far.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And for the record, citing Politics USA is not very convincing. They are a left leaning source who would do anything to spin the polling data.

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

 

[The Rabbi]

There have been 8 Nunn vs. Kingston matchups thus far.

Nunn has won five of them. Kingston has won 2 and there was one absolute tie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Kingston vs. Nunn


However, the RCP average is folly. The poll before the poll from Landmark Communications, from SUSA, is more than one month old. You usually don't average polls that are more than two weeks old with each other.

Here is the website for Landmark Communications:

Landmark Communications, Inc

Mark Rountree founded the firm 23 years ago. He is a REPUBLICAN and the firm is designated as a REPUBLICAN firm:

https://twitter.com/LandmarkCommGA

It is Landmark, a Republican firm, that is showing Michelle Nunn with a solid +8 over Kingston.

Indeed, the race is a very, very possible DEM pick-up opportunity in 2012.

GA and KY, both with strong female Democratic nominees, are the two prime pick-up possibilities for the DEMS in this senatorial mid-term cycle.

For the record, the above is what Stat said before researching Landmark Communications.

And this is what Stat said below after researching Landmark Communications. I do believe this was a backtrack.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

That glimmer of hope, isn't.

Oh, but you decided to be deceptive. Tsk, tsk.

In the quote you made at the bottom of your posting, I was referring SPECIFICALLY to Landmark's claim that Romney was polling 22% of the black vote in that state, when the final results prove that that could absolutely have not been the case. And that poll was published 10 days out from the election in 2012.

Care to try again, and this time, maybe be honest for a change?

Anyone can read my posting and see very clearly that what you quoted is ONLY about the one point I made. In 2012, Landmark still correctly picked the winner of the state and Landmark's mathematical bias to the Right is still less than: RASMUSSEN's.

What is it with Right-Wingers and lying these days? Are your lives so piss-poor that you cannot even tell the truth. Is it so bad out there that you must twist information in order to make yourselves look good.

So, no, dumbfuck, it wasn't a backtrack. It was a very specific analysis of one point. Is your brain to small to handle that kind of stuff?

Shame on you, TK.

You are the liar here, Statistheilhitler. Callign GA for Romney was like predicting the sun would rise. That they were off indicates their polling sucks. That you think the exact same people are using the exact same methodology as 2 years ago indicates you're a dumbshit. That anyone would believe GA would elect a liberal Democrat indicates a disconnect from reality.

 

[The Rabbi]

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

Georgia elected Zell Miller and Max Cleland.

And the only reason why this seat is open is that Saxby Chamblis (the guy who compared a triple amputee war vet to Bin Laden) was no longer capable of maintaining the level of crazy to be a Republican these days.

Elected Zell Miller, and regretted it. He was notorious for his flip flopping on issues. Other than Roy Barnes, there hasn't been another governor in the State of Georgia since then. Sonny Perdue (elected twice), and Nathan Deal, currently, leading Jason Carter in the polls thus far.

Is that the same Zell Miller who spoke at the GOP convention and was shunned by his own party, esp after he pointed out how the whackos had taken it over?

 

[Stephanie]

do people like the op ever care about what is best for the country over their party winning something?

PARTY over country they eat, sleep and live for

that's how Obama the community AGITATOR was able to DUPE so many people

We are frikken doomed these people vote

 

[NYcarbineer]

And for the record, citing Politics USA is not very convincing. They are a left leaning source who would do anything to spin the polling data.

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

So name some media outlets you consider credible; name some media outlets that when posted as a source of statistical evidence you would not cite as biased in order to try to discredit the evidence.

Give us a short list. Name 5.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Georgia elected Zell Miller and Max Cleland.

And the only reason why this seat is open is that Saxby Chamblis (the guy who compared a triple amputee war vet to Bin Laden) was no longer capable of maintaining the level of crazy to be a Republican these days.

Elected Zell Miller, and regretted it. He was notorious for his flip flopping on issues. Other than Roy Barnes, there hasn't been another Democratic governor in the State of Georgia since then. Sonny Perdue (elected twice), and Nathan Deal, currently, leading Jason Carter in the polls thus far.

Is that the same Zell Miller who spoke at the GOP convention and was shunned by his own party, esp after he pointed out how the whackos had taken it over?

That's the one! He was so bad that even Chris Mathews called him embarrassing.

 

[NYcarbineer]

do people like the op ever care about what is best for the country over their party winning something?

PARTY over country they eat, sleep and live for

How often do you vote for Democrats?

 

[TemplarKormac]

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

So name some media outlets you consider credible; name some media outlets that when posted as a source of statistical evidence you would not cite as biased in order to try to discredit the evidence.

Give us a short list. Name 5.

And how does this pertain to the discussion, mayhap? Are you trying to bait me?

Give it a rest.

 

[NYcarbineer]

And for the record, citing Politics USA is not very convincing. They are a left leaning source who would do anything to spin the polling data.

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

Wouldn't that mean that anything YOU post as an argument, or as evidence, on any issue can be automatically, legitimately dismissed as having no merit because YOU'RE biased?

 

[TemplarKormac]

do people like the op ever care about what is best for the country over their party winning something?

PARTY over country they eat, sleep and live for

How often do you vote for Democrats?

The mayor and sheriff of my city are both Democrats, and I voted for both of them. I will continue to vote for them.

 

[TemplarKormac]

What's your evidence of that?

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

Wouldn't that mean that anything YOU post as an argument, or as evidence, on any issue can be automatically, legitimately dismissed as having no merit because YOU'RE biased?

Circumstantial ad hominem.

Given you have provided nothing to dismiss my argument, I can summarily dismiss yours out of hand.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.

And that my friend, is what an objective liberal looks like.

Well, actually I am more centrist than you realize, only, you love to label people cuz it somehow makes you feel good, so ok.

But taking your point, I clearly wrote, as a "Liberal".

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

Just to note: Perdue is the Republican.

But Perdue is not likely to win the runoff today. It looks very much as if Kingston is going to win, and he is currently losing by 8 to Michelle Nunn.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Just citing a left leaning outlet should be proof enough.

Wouldn't that mean that anything YOU post as an argument, or as evidence, on any issue can be automatically, legitimately dismissed as having no merit because YOU'RE biased?

Circumstantial ad hominem.

Given you have provided nothing to dismiss my argument, I can summarily dismiss yours out of hand.

I used exactly the argument you used against PoliticsUSA. If it's valid against them it's valid against you. You are at least as biased as PoliticsUSA.

You're asking to be held to a different standard than you hold others. THAT is the logical fallacy.