Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!

[Lovebears65]

Now, if Kingston were to win, Nunn would win. She's beating him in all but one of the local polls here. Perdue however is tied with her in those polls. If Perdue wins, she's toast. The electorate is extremely hostile to Democrats down here.

I am going to vote today and voting for perdue

 

[TemplarKormac]

This is from Fox 5 Atlanta, WAGA. It appears Obama's disapproval among Georgians may wind up hurting Nunn in the fall. The unpopularity of any sitting president always will spill over onto candidates who happen to be running and are in the same party as he is.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YamNuibMti4]WAGA: Obama's Approval Ratings Weighing On Nunn's Campaign - YouTube[/ame]

 

[TemplarKormac]

I have a slight feeling that if Kingston wins, however, that her lead over him may disappear. Once the candidates solidify their platforms, Kingston my wind up taking it. But for me, Perdue is the strongest of the two.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I just went and checked Landmark's track-record in the 2012 election:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=20

There were two Landmark/Rosetta polls of Georgia.

This one, in May 2012:

Poll shows most Georgians are opposed to gay marriage | www.wsbtv.com

And this one, at the end of October:

Poll: plurality support charter amendment, Mitt outperforming among black voters - Georgia Tipsheet

-or-

New Polling Results on Presidential Race and Charter Schools ? Peach Pundit

Both showed Romney +11 over Obama.

Actual result:

Romney +7.81%.

Which means that Landmark was off to THE RIGHT in it's final presidential poll by 3.19 points, rounded simply to 3 points.

This is proof positive that Landmark, which is out of Alpharetta, Georgia, currently has a mathematical bias to the RIGHT and not to the LEFT, so if Landmark is showing Nunn +8 over Kingston and +6 over Perdue, it could actually be as high as Nunn +11 over Kingston and +9 over Perdue.

Food for thought.


Also, in the final Landmark poll in 2012, there was a very disturbing, very false statistic.

Landmark claimed that Obama was losing ground in the black vote:

Romney is running stronger among black voters than Republicans traditionally perform. 22% of black voters said they support Romney as of Thursday evening, which is more than twice the level of support given to Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.

There were no exit-poll results for Georgia in 2012, but McCain won Georgia by +5.20.

This means that Romney improved on the margin in Georgia by +2.51 over McCain's results, which means that 1.26% of the electorate shifted from Obama to the GOP between 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, President Obama got 98% of the black vote in Georgia:

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

the black vote was 30% of the electorate that year:

98 * .30 = 29.4% of the total vote of the state - and went for Obama.

Assuming that Obama only got 78% of the black vote in 2012 in Georgia:

78 * .30 = 23.4%.

Alone, that would have moved Obama's percentage down 6 points and moved Romney's percentage UP 6 points, increasing the McCain spread of +5.20 another 12 points, to +17.20, and that is assuming that Obama maintained in the white vote as he did in 2008, which he probably did not.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

But it proves that the pollster in no way is a left-leaning pollster. He is not.

 

[TemplarKormac]

So, if that Landmark Poll is any indication, that lead Nunn has now WILL disappear. And if it had a mathematical bias, why does it show Nunn winning? Can't say I'm impressed either.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh by the way, a survey conducted by 11 Alive, an Atlanta Area news station, says both candidates have a good chance of beating Nunn. I don't put stock in polls conducted by news stations, but if that is coming from the Metro Atlanta area, then Nunn is doomed. Atlanta is majorly Democrat.

Poll: Both GOP Senate Candidates Would Beat Nunn - YouTube

Yes, that is the SUSA poll that is now 6 weeks old.

You do realize that that is now cold coffee in the middle of a hot race, right?

 

[The Rabbi]

I just went and checked Landmark's track-record in the 2012 election:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=20

There were two Landmark/Rosetta polls of Georgia.

This one, in May 2012:

Poll shows most Georgians are opposed to gay marriage | www.wsbtv.com

And this one, at the end of October:

Poll: plurality support charter amendment, Mitt outperforming among black voters - Georgia Tipsheet

-or-

New Polling Results on Presidential Race and Charter Schools ? Peach Pundit

Both showed Romney +11 over Obama.

Actual result:

Romney +7.81%.

Which means that Landmark was off to THE RIGHT in it's final presidential poll by 3.19 points, rounded simply to 3 points.

This is proof positive that Landmark, which is out of Alpharetta, Georgia, currently has a mathematical bias to the RIGHT and not to the LEFT, so if Landmark is showing Nunn +8 over Kingston and +6 over Perdue, it could actually be as high as Nunn +11 over Kingston and +9 over Perdue.

Food for thought.


Also, in the final Landmark poll in 2012, there was a very disturbing, very false statistic.

Landmark claimed that Obama was losing ground in the black vote:

Romney is running stronger among black voters than Republicans traditionally perform. 22% of black voters said they support Romney as of Thursday evening, which is more than twice the level of support given to Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.

There were no exit-poll results for Georgia in 2012, but McCain won Georgia by +5.20.

This means that Romney improved on the margin in Georgia by +2.51 over McCain's results, which means that 1.26% of the electorate shifted from Obama to the GOP between 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, President Obama got 98% of the black vote in Georgia:

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

the black vote was 30% of the electorate that year:

98 * .30 = 29.4% of the total vote of the state - and went for Obama.

Assuming that Obama only got 78% of the black vote in 2012 in Georgia:

78 * .30 = 23.4%.

Alone, that would have moved Obama's percentage down 6 points and moved Romney's percentage UP 6 points, increasing the McCain spread of +5.20 another 12 points, to +17.20, and that is assuming that Obama maintained in the white vote as he did in 2008, which he probably did not.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

But it proves that the pollster in no way is a left-leaning pollster. He is not.

You're full of shit, as usual.
What you proved is that Landmark's polling sucks. Suck is suck. And Nunn wont stand a chance.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, if that Landmark Poll is any indication, that lead Nunn has now WILL disappear. And if it had a mathematical bias, why does it show Nunn winning? Can't say I'm impressed either.

You obviously did not understand what I wrote.

Landmark has a mathematical BIAS to the RIGHT, not to the LEFT. I just proved it.

This means that Nunn is likely doing BETTER in Georgia right now than Landmark predicts.

Of course, it's 4 months until election time, a lot can happen in that time.

But right now, Nunn has the upper hand.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I just went and checked Landmark's track-record in the 2012 election:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=20

There were two Landmark/Rosetta polls of Georgia.

This one, in May 2012:

Poll shows most Georgians are opposed to gay marriage | www.wsbtv.com

And this one, at the end of October:

Poll: plurality support charter amendment, Mitt outperforming among black voters - Georgia Tipsheet

-or-

New Polling Results on Presidential Race and Charter Schools ? Peach Pundit

Both showed Romney +11 over Obama.

Actual result:

Romney +7.81%.

Which means that Landmark was off to THE RIGHT in it's final presidential poll by 3.19 points, rounded simply to 3 points.

This is proof positive that Landmark, which is out of Alpharetta, Georgia, currently has a mathematical bias to the RIGHT and not to the LEFT, so if Landmark is showing Nunn +8 over Kingston and +6 over Perdue, it could actually be as high as Nunn +11 over Kingston and +9 over Perdue.

Food for thought.


Also, in the final Landmark poll in 2012, there was a very disturbing, very false statistic.

Landmark claimed that Obama was losing ground in the black vote:

Romney is running stronger among black voters than Republicans traditionally perform. 22% of black voters said they support Romney as of Thursday evening, which is more than twice the level of support given to Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.

There were no exit-poll results for Georgia in 2012, but McCain won Georgia by +5.20.

This means that Romney improved on the margin in Georgia by +2.51 over McCain's results, which means that 1.26% of the electorate shifted from Obama to the GOP between 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, President Obama got 98% of the black vote in Georgia:

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

the black vote was 30% of the electorate that year:

98 * .30 = 29.4% of the total vote of the state - and went for Obama.

Assuming that Obama only got 78% of the black vote in 2012 in Georgia:

78 * .30 = 23.4%.

Alone, that would have moved Obama's percentage down 6 points and moved Romney's percentage UP 6 points, increasing the McCain spread of +5.20 another 12 points, to +17.20, and that is assuming that Obama maintained in the white vote as he did in 2008, which he probably did not.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

But it proves that the pollster in no way is a left-leaning pollster. He is not.

You're full of shit, as usual.
What you proved is that Landmark's polling sucks. Suck is suck. And Nunn wont stand a chance.

No, it shows that Landmark has a mathematical polling bias to the RIGHT.

So, your attack on ME was worthless. I am laughing at you right now.

Enjoy your anger.

 

[TemplarKormac]

So, if that Landmark Poll is any indication, that lead Nunn has now WILL disappear. And if it had a mathematical bias, why does it show Nunn winning? Can't say I'm impressed either.

You obviously did not understand what I wrote.

Landmark has a mathematical BIAS to the RIGHT, not to the LEFT. I just proved it.

This means that Nunn is likely doing BETTER in Georgia right now than Landmark predicts.

Of course, it's 4 months until election time, a lot can happen in that time.

But right now, Nunn has the upper hand.

I do understand what you wrote. If it had a mathematical bias to the RIGHT, then why does the current Landmark poll have Nunn winning by 6 points over Perdue and Kingston by 8? So, how can such be explained? If there is a 3 percent polling bias, either she's clobbering both of them, or barely winning against them. Then you have to factor the margin of error in there as well. Meaning stat, that she may be outperforming as your raw math tells, but polling bias works both ways.

She would be winning by 9 points over Perdue, and 11 points over Kingston of the polling bias were further to the left, if they were further to the right, the margin would be 3 points over Perdue and 5 points over Kingston.

Anywho, the SUSA poll might be six weeks old, but you were trumpeting the Landmark poll until you bothered to check their track record, they are bullshit as you just said. So, were you not jumping the gun there a bit earlier?

 

[TemplarKormac]

I just went and checked Landmark's track-record in the 2012 election:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=20

There were two Landmark/Rosetta polls of Georgia.

This one, in May 2012:

Poll shows most Georgians are opposed to gay marriage | www.wsbtv.com

And this one, at the end of October:

Poll: plurality support charter amendment, Mitt outperforming among black voters - Georgia Tipsheet

-or-

New Polling Results on Presidential Race and Charter Schools ? Peach Pundit

Both showed Romney +11 over Obama.

Actual result:

Romney +7.81%.

Which means that Landmark was off to THE RIGHT in it's final presidential poll by 3.19 points, rounded simply to 3 points.

This is proof positive that Landmark, which is out of Alpharetta, Georgia, currently has a mathematical bias to the RIGHT and not to the LEFT, so if Landmark is showing Nunn +8 over Kingston and +6 over Perdue, it could actually be as high as Nunn +11 over Kingston and +9 over Perdue.

Food for thought.


Also, in the final Landmark poll in 2012, there was a very disturbing, very false statistic.

Landmark claimed that Obama was losing ground in the black vote:





There were no exit-poll results for Georgia in 2012, but McCain won Georgia by +5.20.

This means that Romney improved on the margin in Georgia by +2.51 over McCain's results, which means that 1.26% of the electorate shifted from Obama to the GOP between 2008 and 2012.

In 2008, President Obama got 98% of the black vote in Georgia:

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

the black vote was 30% of the electorate that year:

98 * .30 = 29.4% of the total vote of the state - and went for Obama.

Assuming that Obama only got 78% of the black vote in 2012 in Georgia:

78 * .30 = 23.4%.

Alone, that would have moved Obama's percentage down 6 points and moved Romney's percentage UP 6 points, increasing the McCain spread of +5.20 another 12 points, to +17.20, and that is assuming that Obama maintained in the white vote as he did in 2008, which he probably did not.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

But it proves that the pollster in no way is a left-leaning pollster. He is not.

You're full of shit, as usual.
What you proved is that Landmark's polling sucks. Suck is suck. And Nunn wont stand a chance.

No, it shows that Landmark has a mathematical polling bias to the RIGHT.

So, your attack on ME was worthless. I am laughing at you right now.

Enjoy your anger.

Wow. Overconfident, are we? What you did was say "Hey! Look! Even a Republican polling firm shows Nunn winning!" right before you said their track record was garbage. Do you deny saying that? Or do I need to start pulling posts?

 

[TemplarKormac]

There have been 8 Nunn vs. Kingston matchups thus far.

Nunn has won five of them. Kingston has won 2 and there was one absolute tie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Kingston vs. Nunn


However, the RCP average is folly. The poll before the poll from Landmark Communications, from SUSA, is more than one month old. You usually don't average polls that are more than two weeks old with each other.

Here is the website for Landmark Communications:

Landmark Communications, Inc

Mark Rountree founded the firm 23 years ago. He is a REPUBLICAN and the firm is designated as a REPUBLICAN firm:

https://twitter.com/LandmarkCommGA

It is Landmark, a Republican firm, that is showing Michelle Nunn with a solid +8 over Kingston.

Indeed, the race is a very, very possible DEM pick-up opportunity in 2012.

GA and KY, both with strong female Democratic nominees, are the two prime pick-up possibilities for the DEMS in this senatorial mid-term cycle.

For the record, the above is what Stat said before researching Landmark Communications.

And this is what Stat said below after researching Landmark Communications. I do believe this was a backtrack.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

That glimmer of hope, isn't.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Moral of the story here folks:

Don't put stock in polls with bad track records.

 

[JoeB131]

Georgian here. Michelle Nunn hasn't a chance. Just because Sam Nunn was her father won't change much. Name recognition won't help her here. Republicans have cast a ton of early ballots here. Just imagine what it will be like in November.

But Republicans are about to nominate Kingston instead of Perdue, and Kingston is kind of a whackjob.

Only a matter of time before they catch this fool trying to put an adjective in front of the word "Rape".

 

[Statistikhengst]

There have been 8 Nunn vs. Kingston matchups thus far.

Nunn has won five of them. Kingston has won 2 and there was one absolute tie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Kingston vs. Nunn


However, the RCP average is folly. The poll before the poll from Landmark Communications, from SUSA, is more than one month old. You usually don't average polls that are more than two weeks old with each other.

Here is the website for Landmark Communications:

Landmark Communications, Inc

Mark Rountree founded the firm 23 years ago. He is a REPUBLICAN and the firm is designated as a REPUBLICAN firm:

https://twitter.com/LandmarkCommGA

It is Landmark, a Republican firm, that is showing Michelle Nunn with a solid +8 over Kingston.

Indeed, the race is a very, very possible DEM pick-up opportunity in 2012.

GA and KY, both with strong female Democratic nominees, are the two prime pick-up possibilities for the DEMS in this senatorial mid-term cycle.

For the record, the above is what Stat said before researching Landmark Communications.

And this is what Stat said below after researching Landmark Communications. I do believe this was a backtrack.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

That glimmer of hope, isn't.

Oh, but you decided to be deceptive. Tsk, tsk.

In the quote you made at the bottom of your posting, I was referring SPECIFICALLY to Landmark's claim that Romney was polling 22% of the black vote in that state, when the final results prove that that could absolutely have not been the case. And that poll was published 10 days out from the election in 2012.

Care to try again, and this time, maybe be honest for a change?

Anyone can read my posting and see very clearly that what you quoted is ONLY about the one point I made. In 2012, Landmark still correctly picked the winner of the state and Landmark's mathematical bias to the Right is still less than: RASMUSSEN's.

What is it with Right-Wingers and lying these days? Are your lives so piss-poor that you cannot even tell the truth? Is it so bad out there that you must twist information in order to make yourselves look good?

So, no, dumbfuck, it wasn't a backtrack. It was a very specific analysis of one point. Is your brain to small to handle that kind of stuff?

Shame on you, TK.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Georgian here. Michelle Nunn hasn't a chance. Just because Sam Nunn was her father won't change much. Name recognition won't help her here. Republicans have cast a ton of early ballots here. Just imagine what it will be like in November.

But Republicans are about to nominate Kingston instead of Perdue, and Kingston is kind of a whackjob.

Only a matter of time before they catch this fool trying to put an adjective in front of the word "Rape".

Shouldn't you be getting ready for work Joe? Or is your butt still sore from that beating I gave you in the Hobby Lobby thread? But anywho.

I've found that running with scissors is a very good way to get my exercise. Joe, you're a genius.

 

[JoeB131]

Georgian here. Michelle Nunn hasn't a chance. Just because Sam Nunn was her father won't change much. Name recognition won't help her here. Republicans have cast a ton of early ballots here. Just imagine what it will be like in November.

But Republicans are about to nominate Kingston instead of Perdue, and Kingston is kind of a whackjob.

Only a matter of time before they catch this fool trying to put an adjective in front of the word "Rape".

Shouldn't you be getting ready for work Joe? Or is your butt still sore from that beating I gave you in the Hobby Lobby thread? But anywho.

I've found that running with scissors is a very good way to get my exercise. Joe, you're a genius.

Yeah, only in your own mind.

I always wonder why you need to declare "victory' on threads.

DO you know what a "victory" is on a thread.

"Wow, Templar, you presented facts I had not considered. YOu have truly changed my mind on this issue."

Words said NEVER on one of your threads.

I doubt you've ever changed anyone's mind. You might annoy people until they give up trying to reason with you, but that's really not the same thing.

I'm sorry that you never learned the difference as one of your "Hobbies".

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, if that Landmark Poll is any indication, that lead Nunn has now WILL disappear. And if it had a mathematical bias, why does it show Nunn winning? Can't say I'm impressed either.

You obviously did not understand what I wrote.

Landmark has a mathematical BIAS to the RIGHT, not to the LEFT. I just proved it.

This means that Nunn is likely doing BETTER in Georgia right now than Landmark predicts.

Of course, it's 4 months until election time, a lot can happen in that time.

But right now, Nunn has the upper hand.

I do understand what you wrote. If it had a mathematical bias to the RIGHT, then why does the current Landmark poll have Nunn winning by 6 points over Perdue and Kingston by 8? So, how can such be explained? If there is a 3 percent polling bias, either she's clobbering both of them, or barely winning against them. Then you have to factor the margin of error in there as well. Meaning stat, that she may be outperforming as your raw math tells, but polling bias works both ways.

She would be winning by 9 points over Perdue, and 11 points over Kingston of the polling bias were further to the left, if they were further to the right, the margin would be 3 points over Perdue and 5 points over Kingston.

Anywho, the SUSA poll might be six weeks old, but you were trumpeting the Landmark poll until you bothered to check their track record, they are bullshit as you just said. So, were you not jumping the gun there a bit earlier?

You really aren't that dense, are you?

There are two different values because she is being pitted against two different candidates! Even a first grader can understand that.

Mathematical bias is simply proof that the last set of polls from this company tended to predict more to the right than the actual result.

Using that as a likely template, it could very well mean that the margins currently predicted for Nunn, since she is a Democrat and not a Republican, are being UNDERSTATED, because the pollster has a mathematical bias to the Right and not to the Left. So, no, she is not just barely winning over them.

I picked the Landmark poll because it is the most recent one and there is no other poll within a two-week frame of this one to compare it with. The SUSA poll, for these purposes, is just too old.

Either you are being intentionally stupid or you are just trolling. Either way, you make the Right look bad with the bullshit you are writing here.

My posts stand as they are. I have presented actual data and the analysis is correct.

Tough shit for you.

 

[TemplarKormac]

There have been 8 Nunn vs. Kingston matchups thus far.

Nunn has won five of them. Kingston has won 2 and there was one absolute tie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Kingston vs. Nunn


However, the RCP average is folly. The poll before the poll from Landmark Communications, from SUSA, is more than one month old. You usually don't average polls that are more than two weeks old with each other.

Here is the website for Landmark Communications:

Landmark Communications, Inc

Mark Rountree founded the firm 23 years ago. He is a REPUBLICAN and the firm is designated as a REPUBLICAN firm:

https://twitter.com/LandmarkCommGA

It is Landmark, a Republican firm, that is showing Michelle Nunn with a solid +8 over Kingston.

Indeed, the race is a very, very possible DEM pick-up opportunity in 2012.

GA and KY, both with strong female Democratic nominees, are the two prime pick-up possibilities for the DEMS in this senatorial mid-term cycle.

For the record, the above is what Stat said before researching Landmark Communications.

And this is what Stat said below after researching Landmark Communications. I do believe this was a backtrack.

So, even without an exit poll from 2012, it is easy to prove that this statistic from Landmark in 2012 was absolute bullshit. I laughed at that poll back then and I am still laughing now.

That glimmer of hope, isn't.

Oh, but you decided to be deceptive. Tsk, tsk.

In the quote you made at the bottom of your posting, I was referring SPECIFICALLY to Landmark's claim that Romney was polling 22% of the black vote in that state, when the final results prove that that could absolutely have not been the case. And that poll was published 10 days out from the election in 2012.

Care to try again, and this time, maybe be honest for a change?

Anyone can read my posting and see very clearly that what you quoted is ONLY about the one point I made. In 2012, Landmark still correctly picked the winner of the state and Landmark's mathematical bias to the Right is still less than: RASMUSSEN's.

What is it with Right-Wingers and lying these days? Are your lives so piss-poor that you cannot even tell the truth. Is it so bad out there that you must twist information in order to make yourselves look good.

Shame on you, TK.

Sorry, your ad hominem won't work on me. I noticed in your post how you did more to attack me than the point. You made reference to Landmark's track record as being 'bullshit' right before saying Nunn's lead in that poll was a sign of a potential Democratic pickup. You jumped the gun and you know it. Not only that, you contradicted yourself twice.

The first is already mentioned above. The second is where you said it accurately predicted Romney winning Georgia by what was it, 7 points? However, you went on to discredit the poll for a statistic about Romney's performance with black voters. "I was laughed at the poll then, and I'm still laughing now."

You discredited a poll that you were just not a few minutes earlier hailing as a potential sign of a democratic pickup in the Senate. I also must note your statistical analyses always are a bit liberally biased.

Is your life so piss poor that you have to give a poll two faces to make it appear your favorite is going to win outright?

Shame on you Stat.

 

[Peach]

And actually, even if you accept RCPs very faulty averaging methodology, it's a tied race now between Nunn and Purdue:


RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


In the Landmark (R) poll, Nunn has +6 over Perdue.

But in the grand scope of things, in polling, at least until this point, Perdue has had the slight upper hand.

I don't see Georgia voting in a Democrat even if it is Sam Nunn's daughter.