RCP Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

[Toro]

I will cite internal campaign polling that cogent campaigns use, who poll likely voters.

Link?

 

[TemplarKormac]

I will cite internal campaign polling that cogent campaigns use, who poll likely voters.

Link?

Google statements made regarding internal polling by Kellyanne Conway. She's the Trump campaign manager.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Toro

Better yet, Google John McLaughlin.

 

[Toro]

All these arguments were made by Trump supporters in 2018, when the polls said that the Democrats were going to crush the Republicans. They said "The polls were wrong in 2016, so Republicans are going to win the House." But the polls were right. The Republicans endured their biggest defeat since Watergate, as the polls predicted.

People simply don't understand math and probabilities.

 

[Mac1958]

All these arguments were made by Trump supporters in 2018, when the polls said that the Democrats were going to crush the Republicans. They said "The polls were wrong in 2016, so Republicans are going to win the House." But the polls were right. The Republicans endured their biggest defeat since Watergate, as the polls predicted.

People simply don't understand math and probabilities.

It's what they're told, it's what they parrot.

We'll see. Fingers crossed.

 

[Bush92]

Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.

By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.

As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.

Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.


What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%

It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.

She was supposed to win in a landslide. Liberal media was crying on election night.

 

[Bush92]

All these arguments were made by Trump supporters in 2018, when the polls said that the Democrats were going to crush the Republicans. They said "The polls were wrong in 2016, so Republicans are going to win the House." But the polls were right. The Republicans endured their biggest defeat since Watergate, as the polls predicted.

People simply don't understand math and probabilities.

The polls showed Democrats would win House in 2018. Don't compare a mid-term to a Presidential race.

 

[Toro]

FYI The pollsters recognized their mistakes in 2016. The realized that there was this block of voters that was flying under their radar who had dropped out of their polling methodology. So they are making a concerted effort today to include those voters.

Does that mean they are going to be right in 2020? Who knows? They could be dead wrong.

But that who assume that just because pollsters were wrong in 2020 they are always wrong don't understand math.

 

[Bush92]

Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.

By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.

As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.

Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.


What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%

It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.

If the polls were honest Trump would be 14 points ahead....last week Biden was 12 ahead now they say he is 4 points ahead....in less than a week Biden dropped 8 points?....just wait until November and shove the polls....

That's individual polls. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE AVERAGE OF THE POLLING DATA TO GET A MORE ACCURATE AND CONSISTENT VIEW.

In the average of the polling data, BIDEN was ahead by 7.5% on August 12, 2019. Today in the Average of the polls, BIDEN is ahead by 7.8%. Understand?

There is nothing accurate about the polls....there wasn't in 2016 and there isn't today...until the pollsters realize that 26% of conservatives didn't fall off the face of the earth and begin to sample select fairly they will stay wrong......

The polls accurately predicted the winner in 46 out 50 states in the 2016 election. That is a 92% accuracy rate.

But not the four that mattered. They went 0-4.

 

[Toro]

The polls showed Democrats would win House in 2018. Don't compare a mid-term to a Presidential race.

And every Trump supporter who said that because the polls didn't predict Trump's victory in 2016 were wrong about the 2018 election were wrong.

 

[Bush92]

FYI The pollsters recognized their mistakes in 2016. The realized that there was this block of voters that was flying under their radar who had dropped out of their polling methodology. So they are making a concerted effort today to include those voters.

Does that mean they are going to be right in 2020? Who knows? They could be dead wrong.

But that who assume that just because pollsters were wrong in 2020 they are always wrong don't understand math.

How can they "include" them when they don't answer the polls?

 

[Bush92]

The polls showed Democrats would win House in 2018. Don't compare a mid-term to a Presidential race.

And every Trump supporter who said that because the polls didn't predict Trump's victory in 2016 were wrong about the 2018 election were wrong.

Again... don't compare a mid-term to a Presidential election.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.

By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.

As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.

Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.


What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%

It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.

The polling was horrible in 2016. Each Presidential Election comes down to a handful of battleground States.

Every battleground State was wrong except Virginia, and the rest were moderately to heavily biased against Trump.

Don't believe me....look it up.

 

[BluesLegend]

Biden's record is not on Trial

 

[U2Edge]

Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.

By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.

As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.

Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.


What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%

It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.

She was supposed to win in a landslide. Liberal media was crying on election night.

Nope, the polls just before election day, the average of the latest polling at that point by Real Clear Politics, showed Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.1% points. That is NOT a landslide. She ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1% points. The Real Clear Politics average of the polls on election day correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states. So 100% accurate in predicting the winner on the national popular vote, and 92% accurate in predicting the winner in the individual state contests.

Three of the 4 states where the polls failed to predict the winner, were predicted to be close within the margin of error or close to it. The only state that was really off in polling was Wisconsin where Hillary was predicted to win by 6.5% points and lost by 0.7% points.

When you averaged national and state polling just before election day in 2016, everything pointed to a close election. That is essentially what happened. Hillary won the popular vote by 2 percentage points, while Trump was able to win the electoral college by 3 states where he scraped by with very tiny victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Nope, the polls just before election day, the average of the latest polling at that point by Real Clear Politics, showed Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.1% points.

What did they show her lead to be 3 months before the election?

 

[U2Edge]

Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020

In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.

By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.

As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.

Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.


What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.

Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%

It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.

The polling was horrible in 2016. Each Presidential Election comes down to a handful of battleground States.

Every battleground State was wrong except Virginia, and the rest were moderately to heavily biased against Trump.

Don't believe me....look it up.

I have looked it up. The average of the latest polls, by Real Clear Politics, on election day in 2016, accurately predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states. They also correctly predicted Hillary would win the popular vote.

Only states they got wrong were:

Nevada - Trump was supposed to win by 0.8% points, but lost. Close race within the margin of error though, so generally an accurate prediction, a TOSS UP.

Pennsylvania - Hillary was supposed to win by 1.9% points, but lost by 0.7% points. Close race within the margin of error, so generally an accurate prediction, a TOSS UP.

Michigan - Hillary was supposed to win by 3.4% points, but lost by 0.3% points. Close race ALMOST within the margin of error, so somewhat accurate.

Wisconsin - Hillary was supposed to win by 6.5% points, but lost by 0.7% points. This was the only state where the polling was really inaccurate.

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

The Trump voters are much more energized

 

[U2Edge]

Nope, the polls just before election day, the average of the latest polling at that point by Real Clear Politics, showed Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.1% points.

What did they show her lead to be 3 months before the election?

7.4% points.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Nope, the polls just before election day, the average of the latest polling at that point by Real Clear Politics, showed Hillary Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.1% points.

What did they show her lead to be 3 months before the election?

7.4% points.

She didn't win by 7.4%, did she?