Rassmussen State By State: Romney 279, Obama 243, 24 Tied

[Trajan]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

I think you are confused...

 

[AceRothstein]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

I think you are confused...

konrad is dead on when it comes to Rasmussen's state polling.

 

[depotoo]

Yes, why? What reason have you been fed?

what have you been fed, is a better question. One can't just look at the results of a poll. The way they come to the results of those polls needs to be scrutinized.

 

[AceRothstein]

Yes, why? What reason have you been fed?

what have you been fed, is a better question. One can't just look at the results of a poll. The way they come to the results of those polls needs to be scrutinized.

Why should they change their methodologies? Because you don't like the results?

 

[Trajan]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

I think you are confused...

konrad is dead on when it comes to Rasmussen's state polling.

why? becasue he was off in some in 2010? Nate Silver made his 'reputation" off of one event basically,is he an outlier? ras has a much better long term track record than 2010 when they were off....feel free to post links etc. please, if I am wrong, I am wrong...thx.

 

[AceRothstein]

I think you are confused...

konrad is dead on when it comes to Rasmussen's state polling.

why? becasue he was off in some in 2010? Nate Silver made his 'reputation" off of one event basically,is he an outlier? ras has a much better long term track record than 2010 when they were off....feel free to post links etc. please, if I am wrong, I am wrong...thx.

He had a 4 point lean to GOP candidates in both 2008 & 2010 state polls. I just posted a lengthy list comparing Ras and PPP in 2008 of the swing states a few days ago. PPP was closer to the final result on all but 2 which were ties.

State PPP Ras Actual Advantage
CO O+10 O+4 O+9 PPP
FL O+2 M+1 O+3 PPP
IN O+1 M+3 O+1 PPP
MI O+13 O+10 O+16 PPP
MO Tie Tie M+.1 Tie
NV O+4 O+4 O+13 Tie (Shitty job by both here.)
NM O+17 O+10 O+15 PPP
NC O+1 M+1 O+.3 PPP
OH O+2 Tie O+4 PPP
PA O+8 O+6 O+10 PPP
VA O+6 O+4 O+6 PPP

 

[auditor0007]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

Soothing yourself with those numbers will not work after November 6th.

 

[konradv]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

I think you are confused...

konrad is dead on when it comes to Rasmussen's state polling.

And that's what counts. We don't go by the popular vote, just ask President Gore.

 

[antiquity]

If this holds true, Obama is toast.

 

[AceRothstein]

If this holds true, Obama is toast.

Unskewedpolls!

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

It's tied.

I agree after looking at all the polling out there to look at.....tied with MAYBE a tiny edge for Romney

 

[LoneLaugher]

No. It is not tied.

The polls are trending Obama. Sane people realize this.

The American people will flirt with the idea.....but will not follow through with electing a liar of Romney's caliber to the Presidency.

The dude is a liar.

 

[emilynghiem]

It's tied.

I agree after looking at all the polling out there to look at.....tied with MAYBE a tiny edge for Romney

If the Tea Party is working behind the scenes to get conservatives to the polls in key states, then this could get the win for Romney, even though we don't hear about this in the media.

Knowing how the minorities who support Democrats will forgive their own, they could still turn out in mass numbers to keep the President in office. The one thing I do appreciate is how many of these voters went through the trouble to make sure they can vote, especially those who never participated before, and started paying attention to politics and economics.

Overall, Obama should get equal or fewer voters than last time, since many who voted for him changed their minds and won't support him again. But not vice versa, I don't see as many people who voted Republican last time having strong enough reason to vote for Obama. If they do, it is usually because they also voted for him last time, so that means no new votes.

I think the vote depends if the Tea Party helps get the independent conservative voters to the polls in the same or greater numbers as the groups trying to rally the Obama voters.

 

[emilynghiem]

No. It is not tied.

The polls are trending Obama. Sane people realize this.

The American people will flirt with the idea.....but will not follow through with electing a liar of Romney's caliber to the Presidency.

The dude is a liar.

Wow if Romney is a liar, what does that make Obama? A better liar?
If Obama got elected as a liar, why not Romney?

I agree Romney is not as good at lying as Obama is.
So if that's what it takes to get elected, Romney is not your man.

 

[Rinata]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

Looks like Romney has it all wrapped up in your book. He doesn't even need to campaign anymore, it's over... Life sure is good for Romney these days, he's doing so well, like 5 points ahead in every state,

Unbelievable, incredulous even.. You should change your name to the dumb gatsby.

 

[LoneLaugher]

No. It is not tied.

The polls are trending Obama. Sane people realize this.

The American people will flirt with the idea.....but will not follow through with electing a liar of Romney's caliber to the Presidency.

The dude is a liar.

Wow if Romney is a liar, what does that make Obama? A better liar?
If Obama got elected as a liar, why not Romney?

I agree Romney is not as good at lying as Obama is.
So if that's what it takes to get elected, Romney is not your man.

Idiot nutters often confuse lies and campaign promises. Sane, rational people know that campaign promises are an expression of what a candidate WANTS to do........and are dependent upon the actions of many......and circumstances.....if they are to become reality.

Sane, rational people also know that when a candidate says something that is inaccurate......and is made aware of it...he or she should refrain from saying it again.

Mitt has stated inaccuracies on many occasions. And when made aware of the falsehood(s)..........just ignores it and continues lying.

You vote for Obama......you vote for a liar.

 

[freedombecki]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

In Ohio, they're running voting machines where when people vote for Romney, Obama's name is selected as their vote. Voting Machine Swaps Obama for Romney

Election fraud is such an ugly animal. How shall the DNC Cheat you? Let me count the ways....

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

If this holds true, Obama is toast.

I can see this. As Becki pointed out; Dem cheating is a concern though.

 

[Trajan]

No. It is not tied.

The polls are trending Obama. Sane people realize this.

The American people will flirt with the idea.....but will not follow through with electing a liar of Romney's caliber to the Presidency.

The dude is a liar.

the polls are trending to obama? wow, up your drip dude.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

WRONG!

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

Why don't we make a relevant comparison, such as, Rasmussen's record in some battleground state polls in 2008:

Final Rasmussen poll vs. real result:

Colorado - Obama +4, Obama +8.5 - Rasmussen misses by 4.5 in McCain's favor

Florida - McCain +1, Obama 2.5 - Rasmussen misses by 3.5 in McCain's favor

Michigan - Obama +10, Obama +16.5 - Rasmussen misses by 6.5 in McCain's favor

Nevada - Obama +4, Obama +12.4 - Rasmussen misses by 8.4 in McCain's favor

N. Hampshire Obama +7, Obama +9.5 - Rasmussen misses by 2.5 in McCain's favor

...starting to see a pattern here??? lol

New Mexico - Obama +10, Obama +14.7 - Rasmussen misses by 4.7 in McCain's favor

North Carolina - McCain +1, Obama +.4 - Rasmussen misses by 1.4 in McCain's favor

Ohio - TIE, Obama +4 - Rasmussen misses by 4 in McCain's favor

Penna - Obama +6, Obama +10.4 - Rasmussen misses by 4.4 in McCain's favor

Virginia - Obama +4, Obama +6.3 - Rasmussen misses by 2.3 in McCain's favor

Wisconsin - Obama +7, Obama +13.9 - Rasmussen misses by 6.9 in McCain's favor.

Now, who wants to talk about Rasmussen's non-bias in 2008?

Who wants to talk about Rasmussen's accuracy in 2008?

...btw...

be honest, how many of you knew the above stats????

LINK:

RealClearPolitics - 2008 RCP Averages & State Results

PS...next time someone posts that stupid Fordham study, hit them with the above. Case closed.