Ranked choice voting---may the most moderate candidate win.

[Missourian]

Change my mind...ranked choice voting will almost always favor the most moderate candidate. Another tool in the Establishment's...and I mean both Democrat and Republican establishment... arsenal to ensure that they retain power.

I'm looking at Alaska...but I'm going to sub in a Democrat analogy instead.

Let's say a Democrat like AOC is running for Senate against a Democrat like Joe Manchin and a Republican like Josh Hawley and a Republican like John Kasich in NY.

Who is going to win?

The split in Ds vs. Rs is 2:1 in NY.

Ds vs Indies is also 2:1 and Rs to Indies is 1:1.

In Deep Blue New York, More Voters Choose 'Blank' Than GOP

Democratic enrollment tops six million voters.

spectrumlocalnews.com

For simplicity sake we'll use 1.2M votes.

600,000 D...300,000 R....300,000 Ind.

Dems break 2:1 for AOC.

AOC 400,000 votes, Manchin 200,000

Indies break 50/50 between the two moderates.

Manchin 150,000 and Kasich 150,000.

The Repubs also break 50/50.

Kasich 150,000 and Hawley 150,000

Totals...

AOC - 400,000

Manchin - 350,000

Kasich - 300,000

Hawley - 150,000.

No one has a majority.

Hawley is eliminated.

His second choice votes go 4 to 1 between Kasich (120,000) and Manchin (30,000).

New totals...

Kasich 420,000

AOC - 400,000

Manchin 380,000

Manchin's votes have now come 200,000 Dems, 150,000 Indies and 30,000 Republicans.

How are they going to split?

Let's say the Dems go 3:1 to AOC (150,000:50,000) and the vast majority of the Independents go to Kasich 5:1? MORE? (125,000:25,000)

5...and all of the Republicans go to Kasich.

Kasich 625,000

AOC - 575,000

Kasich just won the New York Senate seat.

---------------

Now...is this a sure thing?

Don't know.

We'll learn a lot more at the end of August...but I suspect Murkowski is a sure bet to win...because Democrats would rather her than a more conservative candidate...

But ... Palin may win the Congressional Seat...because the third ranked choice is a Republican.

If the majority if HIS second choices is Palin...she wins hands down.

Alaska 2022 primary results

Election results from Alaska's 2022 primaries, where voters select nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and the state's sole House seat, in the state's first ranked choice voting election

www.foxnews.com

(Original research discussion...no link)

Anyhow...those are my thoughts...discuss...

 

[Couchpotato]

Change my mind...ranked choice voting will almost always favor the most moderate candidate. Another tool in the Establishment's...and I mean both Democrat and Republican establishment... arsenal to ensure that they retain power.

I'm looking at Alaska...but I'm going to sub in a Democrat analogy instead.

Let's say a Democrat like AOC is running for Senate against a Democrat like Joe Manchin and a Republican like Josh Hawley and a Republican like John Kasich in NY.

Who is going to win?

The split in Ds vs. Rs is 2:1 in NY.

Ds vs Indies is also 2:1 and Rs to Indies is 1:1.

In Deep Blue New York, More Voters Choose 'Blank' Than GOP

Democratic enrollment tops six million voters.

spectrumlocalnews.com

For simplicity sake we'll use 1.2M votes.

600,000 D...300,000 R....300,000 Ind.

Dems break 2:1 for AOC.

AOC 400,000 votes, Manchin 200,000

Indies break 50/50 between the two moderates.

Manchin 150,000 and Kasich 150,000.

The Repubs also break 50/50.

Kasich 150,000 and Hawley 150,000

Totals...

AOC - 400,000

Manchin - 350,000

Kasich - 300,000

Hawley - 150,000.

No one has a majority.

Hawley is eliminated.

His second choice votes go 4 to 1 between Kasich (120,000) and Manchin (30,000).

New totals...

Kasich 420,000

AOC - 400,000

Manchin 380,000

Manchin's votes have now come 200,000 Dems, 150,000 Indies and 30,000 Republicans.

How are they going to split?

Let's say the Dems go 3:1 to AOC (150,000:50,000) and the vast majority of the Independents go to Kasich 5:1? MORE? (125,000:25,000)

5...and all of the Republicans go to Kasich.

Kasich 625,000

AOC - 575,000

Kasich just won the New York Senate seat.

---------------

Now...is this a sure thing?

Don't know.

We'll learn a lot more at the end of August...but I suspect Murkowski is a sure bet to win...because Democrats would rather her than a more conservative candidate...

But ... Palin may win the Congressional Seat...because the third ranked choice is a Republican.

If the majority if HIS second choices is Palin...she wins hands down.



View attachment 683846

Alaska 2022 primary results

Election results from Alaska's 2022 primaries, where voters select nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and the state's sole House seat, in the state's first ranked choice voting election

www.foxnews.com

(Original research discussion...no link)

Anyhow...those are my thoughts...discuss...

You just made up a bunch of random numbers and somehow think that proves your point?

Im not necessarily against this type of voting system but not because I think it will necessarily get the most moderate candidate but because it allows 3rd party candidates to be viable, where our current system doesnt, and keeps people from "throwing their vote away" and casting their ballot for the lesser of 2 evils candidate.

 

[excalibur]

It is a stupid idea and one that is pushed mostly by the left and RINO types.

Ultimately, SCOTUS will need to weigh in on this.

 

[1srelluc]

RCV is a incumbent's wet dream.

 

[Couchpotato]

It is a stupid idea and one that is pushed mostly by the left and RINO types.

Ultimately, SCOTUS will need to weigh in on this.

Can you elaborate on why it's stupid and SCOTUS has no standing to tell a state how to run it's elections.

 

[toobfreak]

Change my mind...

I can't. We're not voting for our preferred side dish at a wedding dinner. Ranked choice voting is another leftwing scam to skew the outcome of elections. Pick your candidate and be done with it.

 

[excalibur]

Can you elaborate on why it's stupid and SCOTUS has no standing to tell a state how to run it's elections.

Yes, they do, if it is an election involving a Federal office.

 

[Couchpotato]

I can't. We're not voting for our preferred side dish at a wedding dinner. Ranked choice voting is another leftwing scam to skew the outcome of elections. Piuck your candidate and be done with it.

Doesnt it basically just get rid of run offs? If you have 3 or more candidates (the only time RCV really means anything) you are really just eliminating the requirement to come back to the polls and vote again once the candidates without enough votes are eliminated from the pool of candidates and making that selection the first time you vote.

 

[Missourian]

You just made up a bunch of random numbers and somehow think that proves your point?

Not really

It's just common sense based on knowledge of politics.

The original breakdown comes from the first link... 6 million registered Dems, 2.7 million independents and 2.7 million registered Republicans in NY.

The rest is logical deduction.

Most Dems in NY would vote for AOC....but some would vote for Manchin.

Independents likely wouldn't go to either extreme.

And Republicans in New York aren't going to be enthralled by a Hawley.

But really, none of that matters.

All that really matters is that if we take all voters... whether republican or democrat.... the majority is ALWAYS going to be in the center.


Therefore...all things being equal, the winners will also be from the center.

 

[Couchpotato]

Yes, they do, if it is an election involving a Federal office.

Um no they dont. Art 1 Sec 4 states that State Legislatures make those decisions. Congress could pass a law changing it but SCOTUS would have no reason to disallow RCV Constitutionally. I think there is a better chance of the SCOTUS (if it's following the Constitution) of over turning a law passed by the US Congress telling a state they cant vote the way they see fit.

 

[Oddball]

Change my mind...ranked choice voting will almost always favor the most moderate candidate. Another tool in the Establishment's...and I mean both Democrat and Republican establishment... arsenal to ensure that they retain power.

I'm looking at Alaska...but I'm going to sub in a Democrat analogy instead.

Let's say a Democrat like AOC is running for Senate against a Democrat like Joe Manchin and a Republican like Josh Hawley and a Republican like John Kasich in NY.

Who is going to win?

The split in Ds vs. Rs is 2:1 in NY.

Ds vs Indies is also 2:1 and Rs to Indies is 1:1.

In Deep Blue New York, More Voters Choose 'Blank' Than GOP

Democratic enrollment tops six million voters.

spectrumlocalnews.com

For simplicity sake we'll use 1.2M votes.

600,000 D...300,000 R....300,000 Ind.

Dems break 2:1 for AOC.

AOC 400,000 votes, Manchin 200,000

Indies break 50/50 between the two moderates.

Manchin 150,000 and Kasich 150,000.

The Repubs also break 50/50.

Kasich 150,000 and Hawley 150,000

Totals...

AOC - 400,000

Manchin - 350,000

Kasich - 300,000

Hawley - 150,000.

No one has a majority.

Hawley is eliminated.

His second choice votes go 4 to 1 between Kasich (120,000) and Manchin (30,000).

New totals...

Kasich 420,000

AOC - 400,000

Manchin 380,000

Manchin's votes have now come 200,000 Dems, 150,000 Indies and 30,000 Republicans.

How are they going to split?

Let's say the Dems go 3:1 to AOC (150,000:50,000) and the vast majority of the Independents go to Kasich 5:1? MORE? (125,000:25,000)

5...and all of the Republicans go to Kasich.

Kasich 625,000

AOC - 575,000

Kasich just won the New York Senate seat.

---------------

Now...is this a sure thing?

Don't know.

We'll learn a lot more at the end of August...but I suspect Murkowski is a sure bet to win...because Democrats would rather her than a more conservative candidate...

But ... Palin may win the Congressional Seat...because the third ranked choice is a Republican.

If the majority if HIS second choices is Palin...she wins hands down.



View attachment 683846

Alaska 2022 primary results

Election results from Alaska's 2022 primaries, where voters select nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and the state's sole House seat, in the state's first ranked choice voting election

www.foxnews.com

(Original research discussion...no link)

Anyhow...those are my thoughts...discuss...

Ranked clusterfuck voting will always assure that an estbalismentarian, if not an outright leftist, wins.

 

[Oddball]

Therefore...all things being equal, the winners will also be from the center.

Maine's Janet Mills is no centrist...She needed ranked clusterfuck voting to get elected.

 

[Missourian]

Maine's Janet Mills is no centrist...And she needed ranked clusterfuck voting to get elected.

I should have paid more attention to the Maine election, but it wasn't on my radar at the time.

I'll check into it.

 

[Oddball]

I should have paid more attention to the Maine election, but it wasn't on my radar at the time.

I'll check into it.

The Murkowski machine changed Alaska's system to it, because they needed to muddy the waters again to try to stay in power.....In a straight-up primary, she may well have lost to Kelly Tshibaka.

 

[Augustine_]

Change my mind...ranked choice voting will almost always favor the most moderate candidate. Another tool in the Establishment's...and I mean both Democrat and Republican establishment... arsenal to ensure that they retain power.

I'm looking at Alaska...but I'm going to sub in a Democrat analogy instead.

Let's say a Democrat like AOC is running for Senate against a Democrat like Joe Manchin and a Republican like Josh Hawley and a Republican like John Kasich in NY.

Who is going to win?

The split in Ds vs. Rs is 2:1 in NY.

Ds vs Indies is also 2:1 and Rs to Indies is 1:1.

In Deep Blue New York, More Voters Choose 'Blank' Than GOP

Democratic enrollment tops six million voters.

spectrumlocalnews.com

For simplicity sake we'll use 1.2M votes.

600,000 D...300,000 R....300,000 Ind.

Dems break 2:1 for AOC.

AOC 400,000 votes, Manchin 200,000

Indies break 50/50 between the two moderates.

Manchin 150,000 and Kasich 150,000.

The Repubs also break 50/50.

Kasich 150,000 and Hawley 150,000

Totals...

AOC - 400,000

Manchin - 350,000

Kasich - 300,000

Hawley - 150,000.

No one has a majority.

Hawley is eliminated.

His second choice votes go 4 to 1 between Kasich (120,000) and Manchin (30,000).

New totals...

Kasich 420,000

AOC - 400,000

Manchin 380,000

Manchin's votes have now come 200,000 Dems, 150,000 Indies and 30,000 Republicans.

How are they going to split?

Let's say the Dems go 3:1 to AOC (150,000:50,000) and the vast majority of the Independents go to Kasich 5:1? MORE? (125,000:25,000)

5...and all of the Republicans go to Kasich.

Kasich 625,000

AOC - 575,000

Kasich just won the New York Senate seat.

---------------

Now...is this a sure thing?

Don't know.

We'll learn a lot more at the end of August...but I suspect Murkowski is a sure bet to win...because Democrats would rather her than a more conservative candidate...

But ... Palin may win the Congressional Seat...because the third ranked choice is a Republican.

If the majority if HIS second choices is Palin...she wins hands down.



View attachment 683846

Alaska 2022 primary results

Election results from Alaska's 2022 primaries, where voters select nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and the state's sole House seat, in the state's first ranked choice voting election

www.foxnews.com

(Original research discussion...no link)

Anyhow...those are my thoughts...discuss...

Ranked choice would at least keep Democrat and Republican candidates who would rather see the country collapse and fail rather than reject their ideology from obtaining power.

In 2024, the U.S. will be forced to vote between Biden and Trump, 2 candidates that a majority of the country never wants to hear from again. Though maybe that's more of a party problem.

 

[Oddball]

I should have paid more attention to the Maine election, but it wasn't on my radar at the time.

I'll check into it.

Here's how it looks in real time....They're splitting up the republican vote and either getting democrats or old line hacks like Murkowski to the head of the line....

2022 Alaska Primary Election Results

Alaska voters got their first shot at using ranked voting in a statewide race Tuesday in a special U.S. House election in which Sarah Palin seeks a return to elected office.

www.pbs.org

 

[JoeB131]

(Original research discussion...no link)

Anyhow...those are my thoughts...discuss...

I think it would depend.

In the Congressional Seat, Caribou Barbie came in second place after the Democrat, while the more moderate Republican came in third.

Assuming most of his votes picked Palin as their second choice, (and there's no reason to think they didn't), we are going to have Palin saying really stupid things on the national stage again.

 

[excalibur]

Um no they dont. Art 1 Sec 4 states that State Legislatures make those decisions. Congress could pass a law changing it but SCOTUS would have no reason to disallow RCV Constitutionally. I think there is a better chance of the SCOTUS (if it's following the Constitution) of over turning a law passed by the US Congress telling a state they cant vote the way they see fit.

That isn't what is happening with ranked choice. So it does not apply. After all, the left has used the courts to forcibly gerrymander state districts.

 

[Couchpotato]

That isn't what is happening with ranked choice. So it does not apply. After all, the left has used the courts to forcibly gerrymander state districts.

How is the state legislature choosing RCV not the state deciding how its conducting its elections? Under what pretense would the SCOTUS overturn that choice?

 

[MisterBeale]

Yes, they do, if it is an election involving a Federal office.

No, actually they don't.



The only way that the Feds can get involved, is if there is a charge of someone's civil rights or civil liberties are being disenfranchised. This was why most of Trump's voting lawsuits didn't have standing, and the courts could not get involved.

The lawyers HAD to prove some violation of the voting rights act, which they could not.

States and municipalities, can even rig their elections, but without concrete proof? The feds still are not allowed to get involved.

The Daley family political dynasty, and the mafia did this in Chicago for years and years. It is up to the states to bring fraud and racketeering charges, and if they do not wish to? Oh well.

Voting Rights Act of 1965 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org