Surprisingly close. Well done!
He would not just be replaced as Speaker, which is what I think you mean. He would be replaced as a congressman, either by being primaried into oblivian or by having his voters stay home on election day.
In other words, Speaker McCarthy fears the reaction of the voters he represents. That is what is supposed to happen. He is their representative, get it?
The purpose of electing representatives is not so they can impress the New York Times by doing the bidding of the opposition party whose policies their voters find an anathema.
"Blame" them for what, exactly? Federal workers getting furloughed and having to stay home doing nothing? Most of them are staying home doing nothing most days anyway. Now they will do it five days a week instead of four.
The Freedom Caucus' voters will applaud them for "shutting down" the government. Even if they end up having to back down and sign a CR with no concessions, voters will know that they tried.
But of course they will get concessions. The borrow and spenders will have to give up something. CBS will do stories about downtrodden welfare rats having to make do with a crumb or two less, or pampered federal workers being bored all day at home. On the East and West Coast, tears will be shed for them. In middle America, people will roll their eyes and laugh.