That the system is so broken, it doesn’t matter how much liquidity the Fed creates because it won’t be able to get any further than the immediate banking community. And that’s because banks still can’t find enough credit worthy people to lend to. That the majority of loans still have a greater default risk than the banks are prepared to weather. That loans equal capital deterioration. And only loans to the most credit worthy people (of which there are not enough) are worthwhile.
If banks do indeed perceive that capital deterioration risk from lending is much greater than a self-imposed haircut on the most liquid and safe security, they’re prepared to take that haircut — especially in a world with no alternative — because it guarantees some sort of remaining capital preservation. The haircut, of course, is the negative interest rate.
If that is the case, the worse thing the Fed could do is more asset purchases. It would only take out more supply of quality collateral out of the market, heightening the pressure to take a self-imposed haircut just in order to get your hands on the security. A fact echoed by the number of above par bids at this week’s 30-year Treasury auction.
As we’ve already noted, Ben Bernanke discussed that the Great Depression was arguably catlaysed by a move towards voluntary capital destruction via a frenzied fight for the remaining quality collateral.
Back then, the Fed also deployed so-called quantitative easing to flood the system with liquidity. It only made the situation worse.
