GOP Budget Busting 101

[JonKoch]

OK People let's get to the topic of debt, how we got here ($39+ trillion) and how GOP policy vs Democratic policies influenced it.

If you don't want to bring actual facts or data, just stand off



From 1945 to 1980 the US debt to GDP was shrinking. Measuring the debt via GDP accounts for population growth and inflation, and it's how every credible economist or nation measures revenues and expenses



US debt to GDP ABOUT 119% IN 1945, THE HIGHEST EVER TO THAT TIME


US DEBT TO GDP IN 1980 was 31%

What were we hearing from the GOP at that time? Let's take a ;look at Ronnie


"During the 1980 campaign, Ronald Reagan heavily criticized Jimmy Carter for federal budget deficits, which reached roughly $59 billion to $74 billion plus "off-budget" items. Reagan termed these deficits a failure of leadership, blaming them and resulting inflation on excessive government spending and taxing, while pledging to balance the budget by 1983 through tax cuts."



Now what did Ronnie actually do as Prez? Not the mythology the right created after seeing how popular and successful Clinton was, the actual data



"During Reagan's eight year presidency, the annual deficits averaged 4.0% of GDP, compared to a 2.2% average during the preceding eight years."

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product from 1929 to 2025 about budget, federal, GDP, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

WHAT? How could this be possible?


U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of fiscal year 1989 (September 30, 1989) was approximately 39% . Debt had increased from under $1 trillion to over $2.86 trillion in Ronnie final F/Y


But I thought tax cuts were going to bring in more revenues? Well let's look


F/Y 1980, CARTER'S FINAL F/Y - 19.2% of GDP, with total receipts of $517.1 billion. The total federal outlays (spending) for the same period was 21.2% of GDP


1981 F/Y - Carter's last year - 19.1% GDP revenues


1982- Reagan FIRST YEAR 18.6%
1983- Reagan 17%
1984- Reagan 16.9%
1985- Reagan 17.2%
1986- Reagan 17%
1987- Reagan 17.9%
1988- Reagan 17.7% (Cut taxes from top rate of 50% the US had since LBJ, to 28%, LARGEST TAX CUT FOR THE RICH TO DATE)
1989- Reagan 17.8%




Yes, President Ronald Reagan signed multiple tax increases into law after his major 1981 tax cut, in part to address rising budget deficits and close loopholes. While often remembered for cutting taxes, Reagan authorized 11 tax increases between 1981 and 1987, reversing nearly half of the initial 1981 tax savings.

• 1982 Tax Increase: Reagan signed the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA), which is described as one of the largest peacetime tax increases in U.S. history. It brought in revenue by closing loopholes and enhancing compliance.

• 1983 Social Security Reform:
  He signed legislation that included payroll tax increases on Social Security and Medicare. HUGE TAX INCREASES ON THE WORKING MAN

Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays​

Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays: | The American Presidency Project

www.presidency.ucsb.edu

NOW I'll be happy to debate, show the data and actual math, just ask. PLEASE don't deflect






Reversing 1981 Cuts: These subsequent tax hikes, including in 1984 and 1987, acted as a correction to the record-setting 1981 tax reductions, effectively rolling back a significant portion of those cuts


Despite the rhetoric of being a "tax cutter," Reagan signed legislation that increased taxes multiple times to handle the economic realities of the 1980s


DAMN, TRIPLING US DEBT (though increasing it ONLY 31% of GDP to 39% of GDP, is pretty good, compared to Dubya/Dementia Donnie


Yes, I'll touch bases on policies that drove the Muslim guys debt from Kenya.

 

[JonKoch]

Let's bypass that serial tax increaser, Poppy Bush for now and go to the best conservative Prez since Ike, BJ Bill

• Total Federal Debt (1993): ~$4.351 trillion (at fiscal end).
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio (1993): ~64.0%.

Wait, was Poppy a secret proliferate spender?



"During George H.W. Bush’s presidency (1989–1993), the U.S. national debt rose by approximately $1.55 trillion, representing a 54% increase over his four-year term. He inherited a large deficit from the Reagan administration and faced a struggling economy, which, along with the savings and loan bailout, contributed to this rapid debt growth."



Oh right that "great economy the Gipper "built"



All right BJ Bill Clinton takes over the US and debt to GDP was 64%



Poppy had 17% of GDP in revenues his final F/Y (1993) October 1, 1992 to September 30, 1993


1994- Clinton first year - 17.5% GDP revenues
1995- Clinton 17.9%
1996- Clinton 18.3%
1997- Clinton 18.7%
1998- Clinton 19.3% (First Clinton BUDGET surplus)
1999- Clinton 19.3% (Second Clinton surplus)
2000- Clinton 20% (Third Clinton surplus)
2001- Clinton 18.9% (Fourth Clinton surplus)
How did BJ BILL CLINTON, take US from

• Debt-to-GDP Ratio (1993): ~64.0%. TO JUST 54.7% IN F/Y 2001

Let's look

• "Enacted the 1993 Deficit Reduction Plan without a Single Republican Vote. Prior to 1993, the debate over fiscal policy often revolved around a false choice between public investment and deficit reduction. The 1993 deficit reduction plan showed that deficit and debt reductions could be accomplished in a progressive way by slashing the deficit in half and making important investments in our future, including education, health care, and science and technology research. The plan included more than $500 billion in deficit reduction. "

What were the GOPers saying at the time?

FLASHBACK: In 1993, GOP Warned That Clinton’s Tax Plan Would ‘Kill Jobs,’ ‘Kill The Current Recovery’​

Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA), February 2, 1993: We have all too many people in the Democratic administration who are talking about bigger Government, bigger bureaucracy, more programs, and higher taxes. I believe that that will in fact kill the current recovery and put us back in a recession. It might take 1 1/2 or 2 years, but it will happen. (Congressional Record, 1993, Thomas)

Rep. Christopher Cox (R-CA), May, 27, 1993: This is really the Dr. Kevorkian plan for our economy. It will kill jobs, kill businesses, and yes, kill even the higher tax revenues that these suicidal tax increasers hope to gain. (Congressional Record, 1993, Page: H2949)

MANY MORE HERE

FLASHBACK: In 1993, GOP Warned That Clinton’s Tax Plan Would ‘Kill Jobs,’ ‘Kill The Current Recovery’

archive.thinkprogress.org

DON'T WORRY, I'LL GET TO DUBYA/GOP "FISCAL CONSERVATIVES SOON

 

[Zincwarrior]

Trump has never proposed a budget with a lower deficit.

 

[JonKoch]

Can anyone explain what's happening to me on this chart since 1981?

 

[JonKoch]

OK, I know the rights going to CLAIM BJ Bill only got 4 surpluses, 3 after vetoing the GOP's $792+ billion tax cut thanks to Newt and his Contract On America. Let's look at actual data and see

The Real Heroes of the 1998 Budget Surplus: Clinton and His Economy​

Take President Clinton’s 1993 budget bill—officially known as the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993. OBRA, which mainly raised taxes on wealthy people but also raised the gas tax, extended limits on discretionary spending and cut back on some mandatory spending, was signed into law on August 10, 1993. Just five months prior, the Congressional Budget Office projected a 1998 deficit of $360 billion. One month after the bill passed, the CBO’s new estimate of the 1988 deficit was down to $200 billion.



The CBO explained the dramatic improvement this way: “For the first time in two and one-half years, the deficit projections have taken a decided turn for the better… The reconciliation act deserves most of the credit for the improvement over the long run.” Indeed, of the $160 billion improvement from March to September of that year, CBO directly credited OBRA with $143 billion. In fact, OBRA turns out to have been the single largest contributor to the 1998 surplus.
After OBRA, the second largest contributor to fiscal improvement over the period was the rapidly strengthening economy.


As the economy improved, the government began to take in more revenue than expected, since taxpayers were making more money, and had to spend somewhat less than expected, as poverty declined and the demand for social services declined with it.


Over the course of the five-year period, CBO assigned a total of $102 billion in fiscal improvement directly to the effects of this kind of broad economic growth



....But there is another reason why the economic boom produced even more revenue than expected, and again, it had absolutely nothing to do with Newt Gingrich....


OK I'LL WAIT START THE AD HOMS NOT BACKED UP AND BS NOW

RELEASE: The Real Heroes of the 1998 Budget Surplus: Clinton and His Economy

www.americanprogress.org

 

[Zincwarrior]

OK, I know the rights going to CLAIM BJ Bill only got 4 surpluses, 3 after vetoing the GOP's $792+ billion tax cut thanks to Newt and his Contract On America. Let's look at actual data and see

The Real Heroes of the 1998 Budget Surplus: Clinton and His Economy​

Take President Clinton’s 1993 budget bill—officially known as the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993. OBRA, which mainly raised taxes on wealthy people but also raised the gas tax, extended limits on discretionary spending and cut back on some mandatory spending, was signed into law on August 10, 1993. Just five months prior, the Congressional Budget Office projected a 1998 deficit of $360 billion. One month after the bill passed, the CBO’s new estimate of the 1988 deficit was down to $200 billion.



The CBO explained the dramatic improvement this way: “For the first time in two and one-half years, the deficit projections have taken a decided turn for the better… The reconciliation act deserves most of the credit for the improvement over the long run.” Indeed, of the $160 billion improvement from March to September of that year, CBO directly credited OBRA with $143 billion. In fact, OBRA turns out to have been the single largest contributor to the 1998 surplus.
After OBRA, the second largest contributor to fiscal improvement over the period was the rapidly strengthening economy.


As the economy improved, the government began to take in more revenue than expected, since taxpayers were making more money, and had to spend somewhat less than expected, as poverty declined and the demand for social services declined with it.


Over the course of the five-year period, CBO assigned a total of $102 billion in fiscal improvement directly to the effects of this kind of broad economic growth



....But there is another reason why the economic boom produced even more revenue than expected, and again, it had absolutely nothing to do with Newt Gingrich....


OK I'LL WAIT START THE AD HOMS NOT BACKED UP AND BS NOW

RELEASE: The Real Heroes of the 1998 Budget Surplus: Clinton and His Economy

www.americanprogress.org

Lets talk about the CURRENT ADMIN
.

 

[JonKoch]

Should we wait for the disaster of the Dubya/GOP and Dementia Don's? Anyone want to talk about this 45+ year of the GOP gutting revenues AS they blow up spending?

 

[JonKoch]

Lets talk about the CURRENT ADMIN
.

There is nothing to discuss, he's gutted taxes on the richest, AS he blows up spending. It's a theme the past 45 years. Of course he's going to blame Obama and Biden. Probably say we haven't taken the economy seriously enough the past 45 yearsso HE needs to fix it


$1 TRILLION IN DEBT SERVICING

$1 TRILLION IN DOD SPENDING (NOT ALL MILITARY) AND Dementia Don wants to increase DOD by 50% to $1.5 trillion? Private contractors currently get about 50% of US spending for DOD

 

[JonKoch]

May 10, 2013

Medicare private plans overpaid $282 billion​

Medicare Overpayments to Private Plans, 1985-2012: Shifting Seniors to Private Plans has Already Cost Medicare $282.6 Billion​

...Prior to 2004, selective enrollment of healthier seniors was the major source of excess payments. We estimate this has added US$41 billion to Medicare’s costs since 1985. Medicare adopted a risk-adjustment scheme in 2004, but this has not curbed private plans’ ability to game the payment system. This has added US$122.5 billion to Medicare’s costs since 2004. Congress mandated increased payment to private plans in the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act, which was mitigated, to a degree, by the subsequent Affordable Care Act. In total, we find that Medicare has overpaid private insurers by US$282.6 billion since 1985. Risk adjustment does not work in for-profit MA plans, which have a financial incentive, the data, and the ingenuity to game whatever system Medicare devises.

Medicare private plans overpaid $282 billion

pnhp.org

NOW this year alone, the Dubya/GOP passed privatization of Medicare and Medicare Part D which was passed in a 3 hour long session that normally takes 15 minutes of voting, from 3am to 6am on top of that, WILL COST US TAX PAYERS OVER $230 BILLION DOLLARS!



Without a single penny of funding, of course

 

[JonKoch]

Significant portions of the U.S. national debt are linked to Republican-led tax policies, specifically the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the 2001/2003 Bush tax cuts, which reduced federal revenue by trillions. Studies indicate that tax cuts enacted by Republican Congresses over the past two decades are responsible for over half of the rise in deficits, excluding emergency spending.

But Dementia Don AND Dubya said their tax cuts AND policies would grow federal revenues and reduce the deficits. CAN ANYONE SHOW ME WHERE THEY DID? How about showing where the Democrats are responsible for blocking their goals

 

[0311]

Ronnie Ray-Gun did the United States what he did to California, ruined the economy and left up a Democratic Governor to fix it.

 

[leftwinger]

No fancy text needed. Debt was ~$9.5T in late 08'.

Deep State Congress played funny math to add stimulus 01 at end of 08' or early 09' (charged to deep state GWB).

Dirty Congress kept Stimulus baked-in on CR funding every year under the purple-lipped muslim.

Up to $20.24T but nothing to show for it but bigger GOVT by the time Ears was forced out. In 2017.

THX Obiden 1.0 regime. But Congress, opened the floodgates.

 

[JonKoch]

No fancy text needed. Debt was ~$9.5T in late 08'.

Deep State Congress played funny math to add stimulus 01 at end of 08' or early 09' (charged to deep state GWB).

Dirty Congress kept Stimulus baked-in on CR funding every year under the purple-lipped muslim.

Up to $20.24T but nothing to show for it but bigger GOVT by the time Ears was forced out. In 2017.

THX Obiden 1.0 regime. But Congress, opened the floodgates.

LMAOROG. Sorry I forgot every policy that Ronnie and Dubya passed into law, disappeared the day they left office.


Care to point to LAWS that Obama passed that created the debt? Pretty please?


Key Inherited Debt Drivers (Bush-Era):

• Tax Cuts & Wars: According to a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) analysis, Bush-era tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were projected to account for nearly half of all debt accumulated between 2009 and 2019.

• The 2008 Financial Crisis: The downturn drastically reduced federal tax revenue while increasing mandatory spending, creating a structural deficit before Obama took office.

On January 7, 2009, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a $1.2 trillion federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2009, driven by the financial crisis, recession, and bailout costs. This represented an unprecedented ~8.3% of GDP. The final 2009 deficit was later reported by CBO as $1.4 trillion (9.9% of GDP).




Medicare Drug Benefit: The 2003 Medicare prescription drug benefit (Part D) added significant long-term costs.

https://www.cbpp.org/research/economic-downturn-and-legacy-of-bush-policies-continue-to-drive-large-deficits#:~:text=Annual%20deficits%20in%202010%20through,the%20debt%20at%20that%20time.

​

 

[JonKoch]

No fancy text needed. Debt was ~$9.5T in late 08'.

Deep State Congress played funny math to add stimulus 01 at end of 08' or early 09' (charged to deep state GWB).

Dirty Congress kept Stimulus baked-in on CR funding every year under the purple-lipped muslim.

Up to $20.24T but nothing to show for it but bigger GOVT by the time Ears was forced out. In 2017.

THX Obiden 1.0 regime. But Congress, opened the floodgates.

About Those Bush Tax Cuts for the Rich . . .
By The Editorial Board February 12, 2008

From the chart, it may seem at first glance that the debt explosion is a problem for the distant future. Look again.



Decision time is no later than 2010, when the lines diverge. It will be up to the next president and the Congress to put the nation on a healthy budget path — or not.

About Those Bush Tax Cuts for the Rich . . .

archive.nytimes.com

 

[leftwinger]

Obiden years allowed dirty Cogress to put it on AutoPilot adding ~$1.6T per year for his 8 and hiding one stimulus on GWB final year when $1T was REAL money.

Now the dirty Congress throws around trillions like drunken sailors. Walzt Newscum and Maine found stealing $100s of billions to their states. All big blue states in on it for certain

Who approves ut all? AOC and Crocket types? Lynseed? Uh-huh.

Its all been figured out before you were born little kid.

 

[JonKoch]

No fancy text needed. Debt was ~$9.5T in late 08'.

Deep State Congress played funny math to add stimulus 01 at end of 08' or early 09' (charged to deep state GWB).

Dirty Congress kept Stimulus baked-in on CR funding every year under the purple-lipped muslim.

Up to $20.24T but nothing to show for it but bigger GOVT by the time Ears was forced out. In 2017.

THX Obiden 1.0 regime. But Congress, opened the floodgates.

Clinton took US from 17.5% of GDP to 20% in 2000 (Third Clinton surplus)

2001- Clinton 18.9% (Fourth Clinton surplus), THIS was the recession, Clinton's FINAL F/Y year that ended Sept 30th 2001
So you are partially correct the recession hurt a bit, going from 20% of GDP to 18.9%







BUT let's look at Dubya/GOP policies and what ACTUALLY happened




"The 2001 US recession was a mild, eight-month economic downturn lasting from March to November 2001,"




Revenues percentage GDP

Dubya FIRST F/Y budget 2002 (started 10/1/2001) 17.1% (FROM 18.9% UNDER BC)
Dubya 2nd F/Y 2003 15.8%
Dubya 3rd F/Y 2004 15.6%
Dubya 4th F/Y 2005 16.8% (Dubya's ponzi scheme started)
Dubya's 5th F/Y 2006 17.6%
Dubya's 6th F/Y 2007 18.0%
Dubya's 7th F/Y 2008 17.1% (Dubya's ponzi scheme dies)
Dubya's 8th and final 2009 14.6% WOW, WHAT DRIVES REVENUES TO KOREAN WAR LEVELS? 8 YEARS OF GOP POLICIES
Now Dubya/GOP has TWO UNFUNDED TAX CUTS (not cutting spending) first in 2001, second in 2003 AFTER they had their first UNFUNDED war going on





"The Economists' statement opposing the Bush tax cuts was a statement signed by roughly 450 economists, including ten of the twenty-four American Nobel Prize laureates alive at the time, in February 2003 who urged the U.S. President George W. Bush not to enact the 2003 tax cuts; seeking and sought to gather public support for the position. The statement was printed as a full-page ad in The New York Times and released to the public through the Economic Policy Institute. According to the statement, the 450 plus economists who signed the statement believe that the 2003 Bush tax cuts will increase inequality and the budget deficit, decreasing the ability of the U.S. government to fund essential services, while failing to produce economic growth"
But how did the revenues go up after tax cuts (well look WHEN they started up, F/Y 2005)




DUBYA PUSHED HIS "HOMEOWNERSHIP SOCIETY" PONZI SCHEME ON US




Between 2004 and 2007, U.S. homeowners increasingly used home equity loans and cash-out refinancings, often referred to as using their homes as Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), to finance consumption. This practice, often facilitated by low interest rates under Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, resulted in home equity extraction financing nearly 3% of personal consumption expenditures at its peak, according to research by Greenspan and economist James Kennedy



Here are the key details from that period:


Home Equity as ATMs (2004–2007): By 2005, home equity extraction was financing roughly 3.7% of consumption, with homeowners using these funds for debt repayment, consumption, and to pay down higher-interest debt.



"Less than 1% Growth" Context: While consumer spending remained strong, total factor productivity growth slowed significantly during 2004-2007 to roughly 0.63% per year, marking a deceleration from earlier in the decade.

• Greenspan's Role and Perspective: Greenspan admitted the housing bubble was "fundamentally engendered by the decline in real long-term interest rates" after the 2001 recession. However, in 2004, he argued that homeowners were not overwhelmed by debt and that equity extraction helped cushion the economy from the stock market crash.

• The "Blue Screen of Death" (Housing Collapse): The "ATM" effect started to fail in 2006 as the housing market cooled, home equity withdrawal narrowed, and homeowners faced lower home prices. By 2007, Greenspan acknowledged that falling home prices were making it harder to extract cash and that the housing bubble had burst.

Evidence of a housing ATM effect? The destination of home equity extracted by US households during the recent housing boom​

Evidence of a housing ATM effect? The destination of home equity extracted by US households during the recent housing boom

In this column, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston economist Daniel Cooper presents new evidence suggesting that the spending impact of equity extraction during the recent US housing boom was relatively small compared with the household balance sheet changes and residential investment. This finding...

cepr.org

Bush Mortgage Bubble include (but not limited to)

Wanting 5.5 million more minority homeowners
Tells congress there is nothing wrong with GSEs
Pledging to use federal policy to increase home ownership
Routinely taking credit for the housing market
Forcing GSEs to buy more low income home loans by raising their Housing Goals
Lowering Investment bank's capital requirements, Net Capital rule (12-1 to 35-1 + leverage)
Reversing the Clinton rule that restricted GSEs purchases of subprime loans
Lowering down payment requirements to 0%
Forcing GSEs to spend an additional $440 billion in the secondary markets
Giving away 40,000 free down payments
PREEMPTING ALL STATE LAWS AGAINST PREDATORY LENDING


But the biggest policy was regulators not enforcing lending standards.


My old thread on this here

Thread 'FACTS on Dubya's great recession'

Jul 2, 2014

Q When did the Bush Mortgage Bubble start?

A The general timeframe is it started late 2004.

From Bush’s President’s Working Group on Financial Markets October 2008

“The Presidents Working Group’s March policy statement acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007.”



Q Did the Community Reinvestment Act under Carter/Clinton caused it?


A "Since 1995 there has been essentially no change in the basic CRA rules or...

• Dad2three
• Replies: 481
• Forum: Economy

• 

 

[JonKoch]

Obiden years allowed dirty Cogress to put it on AutoPilot adding ~$1.6T per year for his 8 and hiding one stimulus on GWB final year when $1T was REAL money.

Now the dirty Congress throws around trillions like drunken sailors. Walzt Newscum and Maine found stealing $100s of billions to their states. All big blue states in on it for certain

Who approves ut all? AOC and Crocket types? Lynseed? Uh-huh.

Its all been figured out before you were born little kid.

Sorry Cupcake, you get a big old F


Don't look at Dubya/GOP gutting revenues AS they blew up spending, or Dubya gutting regulators on the beat, just blame the Black Guy, lol


Accusations of fraud? Wow IF we had someone who cared right?

Trump Vowed to Crack Down on Fraudsters, but He’s Pardoned Dozens​

Across both of his terms, President Trump has granted clemency to more than 70 allies, donors and others convicted in fraud cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/politics/trump-fraudsters-pardons.html

NO PAYWALL

https://archive.ph/7aBxj

Trump pardons wipe nearly $2 billion in victim repayment and taxpayer recovery for Medicare and tax fraud, and more​

Trump pardons wipe nearly $2 billion in victim repayment and taxpayer recovery for Medicare and tax fraud, and more | Governor of California

www.gov.ca.gov

 

[JonKoch]

Wow I thought this thread would be swarming with data and links to point out how wrong I am about putting most of the blame on the current debt on GOP policies.

 

[Delldude]

You the only one who responded to yourself on your failed forum?

 

[JonKoch]

You the only one who responded to yourself on your failed forum?

Yeah, kinda weird the right wing hasn't "set me straight", I assume you can though?