Climate myths: It's been far warmer in the past, what's the big deal?
EARTH 16 May 2007
By
David L Chandler
Temperature and CO2 over the past 500 million years
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
(Image: Robert A. Rohde, Global Warming Art)
The Holocene Climate Optimum
(Image: Robert A. Rohde, Global Warming Art)
See all climate myths in our special feature.
First of all, it is worth bearing in mind that any data on global temperatures before about 150 years ago is an estimate, a reconstruction based on second-hand evidence such as ice cores and isotopic ratios. The evidence becomes sparser the further back we look, and its interpretation often involves a set of assumptions. In other words, a fair amount of guesswork.
It is certainly true that Earth has experienced some extremes that were warmer than today, as well as much colder periods. In some cases the main factors that caused these past warm periods – and the ebb and flow of ice ages over recent millennia – are well understood, though not in all. Many of the details remain unknown.
Within the past billion years, there may have been one or more periods when the whole planet was covered in ice. This “snowball Earth” phenomenon remains controversial, with some evidence suggesting that there were at least some areas of unfrozen land and water even at the height of the freezing (read more
here,
here and
here). It is clear, though, that from about 750 million to 580 million years ago, the Earth was in the grip of an ice age more extreme than any since.
Why did it happen? The spread of ice produces further cooling by reflecting more of the Sun’s energy back into space. But ice on land blocks the chemical weathering of rocks that removes CO2 from the atmosphere, which leads to warming as levels rise.
Snowball Earth may have been possible only because the continents were clustered on the equator, meaning CO2 removal would have continued even as ice sheets spread from the poles. Only when most of the land was covered would greenhouse gases have started to build up to levels high enough to overcome the cooling effects of the extensive ice cover.
Mass extinctions
After this deep freeze, there were several
“hothouse earth” periods when the temperature exceeded those we experience today. The warmest was probably the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which peaked about 55 million years ago. Global temperatures during this event may have warmed by 5°C to 8°C within a few thousand years, with the Arctic Ocean reaching a subtropical 23°C. Mass extinctions resulted.
The warming, which lasted 200,000 years, was caused by the release of massive amounts of methane or CO2. It was thought to have come from the thawing of methane clathrates in deep ocean sediments, but the latest theory is that it was caused by a massive volcanic eruption that
heated up coal deposits. In other words, the PETM is an example of catastrophic global warming triggered by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Since then, the Earth has cooled. For the past million years or so, the climate has switched between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods with temperatures similar to those of the past few millennia. These periodic changes seem to be triggered by oscillations in the planet’s orbit and inclination that alter the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth.
However, it is clear that the orbital changes alone would not have produced large temperature changes and that there must have been some kind of feedback effect (see the section on
Milankovitch cycles in this article).
Inundated cities
In between ice ages, some lesser peaks of temperature have occurred a number of times, especially around 125,000 years ago. At this time, temperatures may have been about 1°C to 2°C degrees warmer than today. Sea level was 5 to 8 metres higher than today –
a rise sufficient to inundate most of the world’s coastal cities (IPCC report, pdf format). This peak was triggered by the orbital cycles.
After the last glaciation ended, global temperatures appear to have peaked around 6000 years ago, called the
Holocene Climatic Optimum. The warming appears have been largely localised, concentrated in the northern hemisphere in summer, and average global temperatures did not exceed those of recent decades by much, if at all. Again, orbital variations were the trigger, but these led to changes in vegetation and sea-ice cover that produced marked regional climatic alterations.
From about AD 800 to AD 1300, there was a minor peak called the medieval warm period, but it was not as warm as recent decades (see
Climate myths: It was warmer during the Medieval period).
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Climate myths: It's been far warmer in the past, what's the big deal?