Now, back to our inflation problem.
The economy starts moving, which means the velocity of money starts picking up. And just like that, inflation begins to take off.
So now the Fed needs to start soaking up all that cash it had injected into the economy.
It does this by selling its assets and destroying the proceeds.
When you start flooding the market with a product ($3 trillion worth), what happens to the price of that product?
That's right. It drops.
Yields being to climb. The interest rate on bonds begins to go up.
Which means a 2.83% interest bond is now a piece of crap. No one wants a 2.83% interest bond when there are 5% interest bonds on the market.
Which means the Fed is upside down on its assets. Which means they have to sell them at a loss.
Why doesn't the Fed just hold them until maturity, you may be asking.
Because the whole point of selling those bonds was to soak up excess liquidity to keep inflation down.
Except now that bonds are suddenly cheaper, the Fed is pulling less cash out for each bond it buys than it put in when it bought that same bond.
Which means it cannot possibly soak up all the liquidity it put into the market.
Which means inflation is inevitable.
Not only that, who's to say there will be $3 trillion worth of demand for US Treasuries and MBS?
And (cue conspiracy music)...inflation is the most favored method for heavily indebted countries to get out of debt.
So there you go. The Fed's Bond Bubble Doomsday Machine.
Coming to a neighborhood near you.
Keep your eye on the Fed interest rate!