g5000
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2011
- 139,729
- 97,029
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I apologize that this exceeds the MAGA intellectual bandwidth of a bumper sticker:So who won? The dead Ayatollahs or the cardboard guy?
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be āopen,ā as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iranās allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to Americaās failure.
[snip]
Some supporters of the war are therefore calling for the resumption of military strikes, but they cannot explain how another round of bombing will accomplish what 37 days of bombing did not. More military action will inevitably lead Iran to retaliate against neighboring Gulf States; the warās advocates have no response to that, either. Trump halted attacks on Iran not because he was bored but because Iran was striking the regionās vital oil and gas facilities. The turning point came on March 18, when Israel bombed Iranās South Pars gas field and Iran retaliated by attacking Qatarās Ras Laffan Industrial City, the worldās largest natural-gas-export plant, causing damage to production capacity that will take years to repair. Trump responded by declaring a moratorium on further strikes against Iranās energy facilities and then declaring a cease-fire, despite Iranās not having made a single concession.
The risk calculus that forced Trump to back down a month ago still holds. Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iranās ācivilizationā through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went downāassuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the regionās oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategyālooking tough as a way of masking his retreatāhe canāt do that without risking this catastrophe.
If this isnāt checkmate, itās close. In recent days, Trump has reportedly asked the U.S. intelligence community to assess the consequences of simply declaring victory and walking away. You canāt blame him. Hoping for regime collapse is not much of a strategy, especially when the regime has already survived repeated military and economic pummeling.
Checkmate in Iran