Predict the Elctoral Outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election

[rightwinger]

278 Romney 260 Obama.

If Romney pulls out a win, it will be by a slim margin

Just like Bush

I think it will be close either way there will not be any blowout this year.

Based on current Electoral voting

Obama can win in a blowout or close election
Romney can only win in a squeaker

 

[francoHFW]

This is Romney's high point. Obama over 300, maybe 350...

 

[rightwinger]

This is Romney's high point. Obama over 300, maybe 350...

Romney needs a home run either tomorrow or in the debates

If not, he is doomed

 

[blackhawk]

If Romney pulls out a win, it will be by a slim margin

Just like Bush

I think it will be close either way there will not be any blowout this year.

Based on current Electoral voting

Obama can win in a blowout or close election
Romney can only win in a squeaker

The biggest difference in the swing states is Nevada with Obama +3.3 New Hampshire with Obama +3.5 and Missouri with Romney +4.3 the rest of the swing states are basically tied given this unless something really drastic happens I just don't see a blowout happening for either side.

 

[elvis]

Yoko in a landslide.

 

[rightwinger]

I think it will be close either way there will not be any blowout this year.

Based on current Electoral voting

Obama can win in a blowout or close election
Romney can only win in a squeaker

The biggest difference in the swing states is Nevada with Obama +3.3 New Hampshire with Obama +3.5 and Missouri with Romney +4.3 the rest of the swing states are basically tied given this unless something really drastic happens I just don't see a blowout happening for either side.

That is why they call them swing states

No individual state gives a major lead to Obama. But if they were truly equal, Romney would lead half of them. He only leads two of twelve

Not good for Romney

 

[blackhawk]

Based on current Electoral voting

Obama can win in a blowout or close election
Romney can only win in a squeaker

The biggest difference in the swing states is Nevada with Obama +3.3 New Hampshire with Obama +3.5 and Missouri with Romney +4.3 the rest of the swing states are basically tied given this unless something really drastic happens I just don't see a blowout happening for either side.

That is why they call them swing states

No individual state gives a major lead to Obama. But if they were truly equal, Romney would lead half of them. He only leads two of twelve

Not good for Romney

I'm not sure about that a lot of people are just now really starting to pay attention to the election I think we will really start to get a feel for things about the middle of September after the conventions are done and people have a couple of weeks to really compare the two tickets.

 

[candycorn]

From what I'm hearing about the RNC Convention; Obama may do better than I first thought.

 

[Wolfsister77]

300+ electorial votes for President Obama.

The numbers have just stayed too steady for months for anything but a major catastrophe to make a differance.

Neither would win with 300+... this is going to be a close election

You need 270 to win.

I put Obama at 299 and Romney at 235. Just based on polls I have seen.

I tried several other scenarios and can't seem to see a Romney win anywhere.

Like a previous poster said, barring a major catastrophe, things have been set for awhile.

Oops, forgot NH-so 303 for Obama then.

 

[rightwinger]

The biggest difference in the swing states is Nevada with Obama +3.3 New Hampshire with Obama +3.5 and Missouri with Romney +4.3 the rest of the swing states are basically tied given this unless something really drastic happens I just don't see a blowout happening for either side.

That is why they call them swing states

No individual state gives a major lead to Obama. But if they were truly equal, Romney would lead half of them. He only leads two of twelve

Not good for Romney

I'm not sure about that a lot of people are just now really starting to pay attention to the election I think we will really start to get a feel for things about the middle of September after the conventions are done and people have a couple of weeks to really compare the two tickets.

Actually, most polls show very few people are still undecided.

Romney needs a game changer

 

[Conservative]

Actually, most polls show very few people are still undecided.

Romney needs a game changer

PrideSource - Poll finds swath of voters undecided, unexcited

Two months out from Election Day, nearly a quarter of all registered voters are either undecided about the presidential race or iffy in their support for a candidate, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The GOP, to win, must rally the far right (Ryan made a good move at that yesterday), and Mitt and Ryan need to connect the average voter.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The biggest difference in the swing states is Nevada with Obama +3.3 New Hampshire with Obama +3.5 and Missouri with Romney +4.3 the rest of the swing states are basically tied given this unless something really drastic happens I just don't see a blowout happening for either side.

That is why they call them swing states

No individual state gives a major lead to Obama. But if they were truly equal, Romney would lead half of them. He only leads two of twelve

Not good for Romney

I'm not sure about that a lot of people are just now really starting to pay attention to the election I think we will really start to get a feel for things about the middle of September after the conventions are done and people have a couple of weeks to really compare the two tickets.

This. It's too early to say definitely who will win. People are just starting to tune in now.

One interesting thing I'm hearing is that strategists in both parties are pushing to just abandon the undecided vote. In an election with this many unfavorable ratings floating around, traditionally turn out is kinda low and the winner is the side that does a better job bringing out the base. If that's the case, Mitt could eke out a win as the GOP traditionally does a much better job turning out the vote.

Like I said, I still think Obama is the likely winner based on just electoral math, but I definitely think it's possible Mitt may pull a squeaker out there.

 

[candycorn]

That is why they call them swing states

No individual state gives a major lead to Obama. But if they were truly equal, Romney would lead half of them. He only leads two of twelve

Not good for Romney

I'm not sure about that a lot of people are just now really starting to pay attention to the election I think we will really start to get a feel for things about the middle of September after the conventions are done and people have a couple of weeks to really compare the two tickets.

This. It's too early to say definitely who will win. People are just starting to tune in now.

One interesting thing I'm hearing is that strategists in both parties are pushing to just abandon the undecided vote. In an election with this many unfavorable ratings floating around, traditionally turn out is kinda low and the winner is the side that does a better job bringing out the base. If that's the case, Mitt could eke out a win as the GOP traditionally does a much better job turning out the vote.

Like I said, I still think Obama is the likely winner based on just electoral math, but I definitely think it's possible Mitt may pull a squeaker out there.

If it were almost anyone other than Romney I would agree with you.

If you think this board is laden with republicans or GOP leaning posters, here is a sampling of what they said about Romney:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...governor-doesnt-need-enemies.html#post5795590

I could have posted another 20-30 quotes that were similar to them. Some much more profane.

If the board is indicative of the GOP population at large, I don't think the base will show up for Romney. You get excited about voting for someone; not voting against someone. I don't think anyone is going to stand in the rain to wait to cast a vote for the Governor; for example.

Additionally, the inherent advantages that a candidate is supposed to have are not ones the governor is enjoying. He's not going to win his home state for example. The party he represents is having trouble with key demographics and even though it is no fault of his; it's his baggage to carry.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

If it were almost anyone other than Romney I would agree with you.

It's an issue for sure. But the fact is I've never seen the level of....derangement... when it comes to a sitting President. Cons loved to joke about BDS, but it's pretty clear that if something like that was possible they're suffering from ODS hard. The good news for Mitt is that level of lunacy will mean turnout. It'll be an ugly mean crowd, but they'll come out. Bush brought out some ugliness in the left, but Obama...man oh man....

The real question for Obama is will his crowd turn up? Paul Ryan may scare them enough to show up, but the truth is his base isn't coming out to vote for him either. He's done enough to piss off liberals that if there had been a fight at the Democratic Convention, he might have had some troubles holding his spot on the ticket.

This is just one of those really crummy years like Bush/Kerry in '04 or Clinton/Dole in '96. If the DNC had run a decent candidate they'd have unseated Bush, ditto the RNC with Clinton. Instead they ran loser candidates and lost. Seems like that's the case here. A stronger candidate should have this election in the bad at this point against Obama. Instead, we have Mitt who can barely break even in swing states.

 

[candycorn]

If it were almost anyone other than Romney I would agree with you.

It's an issue for sure. But the fact is I've never seen the level of....derangement... when it comes to a sitting President. Cons loved to joke about BDS, but it's pretty clear that if something like that was possible they're suffering from ODS hard. The good news for Mitt is that level of lunacy will mean turnout. It'll be an ugly mean crowd, but they'll come out. Bush brought out some ugliness in the left, but Obama...man oh man....

The real question for Obama is will his crowd turn up? Paul Ryan may scare them enough to show up, but the truth is his base isn't coming out to vote for him either. He's done enough to piss off liberals that if there had been a fight at the Democratic Convention, he might have had some troubles holding his spot on the ticket.

I guess it is something we'll see when the time comes. Obama's turnout had no where to go but down. He won in 2008 by something like 9 million votes. That is a 7% advantage. Of the nearly 130,000,000 voters who cast ballots in 08, expecting a 7% drop off is probably a good prediction. However, the 7% won't all be on the President's side of the ledger.

This is just one of those really crummy years like Bush/Kerry in '04 or Clinton/Dole in '96. If the DNC had run a decent candidate they'd have unseated Bush, ditto the RNC with Clinton. Instead they ran loser candidates and lost. Seems like that's the case here. A stronger candidate should have this election in the bad at this point against Obama. Instead, we have Mitt who can barely break even in swing states.

Clinton had 379 Electoral votes in 1996. No Republican that was involved in Politics at that point would have stood a chance.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Clinton had 379 Electoral votes in 1996. No Republican that was involved in Politics at that point would have stood a chance.

Maybe, but it seems like they didn't even try. Kinda like this round. Most of the folks that I'd have pegged as actually giving Obama a run sat out. Many of them WERE a bit inexperienced, but they didn't even try.

 

[candycorn]

Clinton had 379 Electoral votes in 1996. No Republican that was involved in Politics at that point would have stood a chance.

Maybe, but it seems like they didn't even try. Kinda like this round. Most of the folks that I'd have pegged as actually giving Obama a run sat out. Many of them WERE a bit inexperienced, but they didn't even try.

Another reason why I think Romney's selection of Ryan was a mistake. Say what you want about Obama's qualifications but the first qualification for anything is believing that you can do the task at hand. He believed he was ready so he ran in 08 when many other Dems were scared off by Hillary. Ryan didn't run...even though he was "ripe" having spent 12 years in the House and some of those years in a leadership position. I am not convinced he thinks he's ready.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Another reason why I think Romney's selection of Ryan was a mistake. Say what you want about Obama's qualifications but the first qualification for anything is believing that you can do the task at hand. He believed he was ready so he ran in 08 when many other Dems were scared off by Hillary. Ryan didn't run...even though he was "ripe" having spent 12 years in the House and some of those years in a leadership position. I am not convinced he thinks he's ready.

Fair number of them clearly did the math and came to the same conclusion a lot of folks did: Obama is likely to win.

Being the running mate doesn't hurt Ryan, but running and losing would have. It's the same reason you see Jindal sitting this one out despite the fact he's spent enormous amounts of time building the base, fundraising network, and support structure for a national run at office.

2016 will see some strong GOP candidates come out and play.

 

[candycorn]

Another reason why I think Romney's selection of Ryan was a mistake. Say what you want about Obama's qualifications but the first qualification for anything is believing that you can do the task at hand. He believed he was ready so he ran in 08 when many other Dems were scared off by Hillary. Ryan didn't run...even though he was "ripe" having spent 12 years in the House and some of those years in a leadership position. I am not convinced he thinks he's ready.

Fair number of them clearly did the math and came to the same conclusion a lot of folks did: Obama is likely to win.

Being the running mate doesn't hurt Ryan, but running and losing would have. It's the same reason you see Jindal sitting this one out despite the fact he's spent enormous amounts of time building the base, fundraising network, and support structure for a national run at office.

2016 will see some strong GOP candidates come out and play.

I agree, 2016 looks good for the GOP.