Polls are tightening...

[The Paperboy]

Obama has a 6.5 advantage in the polls that are current as of today. A healthy lead but there are still a lot of undecideds.

I would expect to see the race within the margin of error by next weekend as undecideds break toward McCain. Could happen sooner if there's an international event, some other October surprise or even a good week on Wall Street.

I also think Obama's half hour TV buy might backfire on him.

Just my two cents.

 

[Larkinn]

Obama has a 6.5 advantage in the polls that are current as of today. A healthy lead but there are still a lot of undecideds.

I would expect to see the race within the margin of error by next weekend as undecideds break toward McCain. Could happen sooner if there's an international event, some other October surprise or even a good week on Wall Street.

I also think Obama's half hour TV buy might backfire on him.

Just my two cents.

Really? You think everything that could possibly break for McCain at this point will?

It will tighten, but I highly doubt it will be in the margin of error by next weekend. Barring a major game changer, Obamas got this sewn up. Of course, we did apparently just bomb Syria...

 

[CA95380]

Just my two cents.

 

[Article 15]

RCP ... Obama +7.6 and he's the 50% mark.

I guess it's the McCain supporters hoping for change these days ...

Do you believe?

 

[sealybobo]

Really? You think everything that could possibly break for McCain at this point will?

It will tighten, but I highly doubt it will be in the margin of error by next weekend. Barring a major game changer, Obamas got this sewn up. Of course, we did apparently just bomb Syria...

The mega rich people that have the power to start wars, crash markets, lower gas prices 2 months before the election, give telecoms immunity for breaking the law know how to play the american people. Scare them, lie to them. And if need be, just throw out their votes.

The gop will challenge all the newly registered voters and maybe rob us of many of their votes.

Now that's christian and patriotic.

 

[Redneck]

The mega rich people that have the power to start wars, crash markets, lower gas prices 2 months before the election, give telecoms immunity for breaking the law know how to play the american people. Scare them, lie to them. And if need be, just throw out their votes.

The gop will challenge all the newly registered voters and maybe rob us of many of their votes.

Now that's christian and patriotic.

Why would they do that when the VRWC could just change the count numbers in the black boxes?

 

[Caligirl]

Polls are tightening....

Really? They are???

<puzzled>

Here's the current trends from RCP:

See how Obama's support is at it's highest level yet? See how McCain's is near its lowest?

I just love your optimism!!!

 

[Missourian]

RCP ... Obama +7.6 and he's the 50% mark.

I guess it's the McCain hoping for change these days ...

Do you believe?

I believe it looks good for Sen. Obama but not great.


Sen. McCain will have to win the following states to win (McCain down by):


North Carolina (-1)

Nevada (-3)

Florida (-2)

Ohio (-1)

Missouri (-1)

Virginia (-7)

and

Colorado (-6.5)








RCP

 

[sealybobo]

Why would they do that when the VRWC could just change the count numbers in the black boxes?

I'm referring to states that still require a paper trail.

Bush appointed a woman to oversee the national election and her job is to do what katherine harris did in florida, only on a national level.

 

[Larkinn]

I believe it looks good for Sen. Obama but not great.


McCain's will have to win the following states to win:


North Carolina -1

Nevada -3

Florida -2

Ohio -1

Virginia -7

Missouri -1

and

Colorado -6.5

Which is actually pretty great for Obama. Considering that even if we assign each of those states a 50/50 chance of breaking for McCain or Obama (which isn't true...as you say, each is more likely to break for Obama than not),

McCain still has only a tiny chance to win.

Also...from 538:

Not good numbers for McCain...

 

[Article 15]

I believe it looks good for Sen. Obama but not great.


McCain's will have to win the following states to win:


North Carolina -1

Nevada -3

Florida -2

Ohio -1

Virginia -7

Missouri -1

and

Colorado -6.5

And he's got to keep Indiana ...

And worry about Montana and North Dakota ...

Yet McCain has decided to take his stand in PA ...

 

[random3434]

Here is another thread of nutwingnewsboy's, then he posts this.

Maybe he could start talking to himself in the third person too, ala "The Bass"

The Paperboy



Call me crazy...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...and I'm sure many of you will but I think that the polls are way off

 

[DavidS]

Obama has a 6.5 advantage in the polls that are current as of today. A healthy lead but there are still a lot of undecideds.

I would expect to see the race within the margin of error by next weekend as undecideds break toward McCain. Could happen sooner if there's an international event, some other October surprise or even a good week on Wall Street.

I also think Obama's half hour TV buy might backfire on him.

Just my two cents.

The race isn't tightning, Zogby had a bad day. Zogby's poll numbers have been all over the place lately and until he shows some consistency, his polls shouldn't be allowed in the RCP Average. I said this when he showed Obama in double digits as well.

The most consistent poll has been Rasmussen.

 

[Annie]

The race isn't tightning, Zogby had a bad day. Zogby's poll numbers have been all over the place lately and until he shows some consistency, his polls shouldn't be allowed in the RCP Average. I said this when he showed Obama in double digits as well.

The most consistent poll has been Rasmussen.

Kind of makes one wonder, why bother voting? It's over. Should I just stay home?

 

[sealybobo]

Really? They are???

<puzzled>

Here's the current trends from RCP:

See how Obama's support is at it's highest level yet? See how McCain's is near its lowest?

I just love your optimism!!!

Story after story is about how palin isn't qualified or greenspan admissions and powell/mclellen endorsing obama.

How are things magically turning for mccain?

 

[Larkinn]

And he's got to keep Indiana ...

And worry about Montana and North Dakota ...

Yet McCain has decided to take his stand in PA ...

And Arizona...and weirdly enough, West Virginia...

 

[DavidS]

And he's got to keep Indiana ...

And worry about Montana and North Dakota ...

Yet McCain has decided to take his stand in PA ...

Chuck Todd said that the African American turnout for this vote has been historic and that Missippi and South Carolina could be in play. No polls out there have even calculated the 95% African American turnout. That's discounting the young voters who are also overwhelmingly Obama.

So we have the African American vote AND the young vote and then we have the normal aged 25-64 people who over half of them are for Obama.

If the current trends hold, I don't think there is going to be a state in this country that is safe. This map could end up looking very much like 1964.

United States presidential election, 1964 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[DavidS]

Kind of makes one wonder, why bother voting? It's over. Should I just stay home?

I know you're being sarcastic, but in case you're not, please don't stay home. No matter who you're voting for, VOTE. I want to see massive, unheard of, record turnout this year. There are 120 million reg'd voters in this country. I want to see 80-90% turnout.

 

[Larkinn]

Chuck Todd said that the African American turnout for this vote has been historic and that Missippi and South Carolina could be in play. No polls out there have even calculated the 95% African American turnout. That's discounting the young voters who are also overwhelmingly Obama.

So we have the African American vote AND the young vote and then we have the normal aged 25-64 people who over half of them are for Obama.

If the current trends hold, I don't think there is going to be a state in this country that is safe. This map could end up looking very much like 1964.

United States presidential election, 1964 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

South Carolina?....maybe. Mississippi? No way in hell I'd say. I think they are under-representing Obama supporters for a few reasons, but I also think a lot of Obamas support is pretty soft, and people may do something different when they go in. So I think the inaccuracies on Obamas side might end up being a wash. Hot damn, if that happens though Democrats will probably get 60 seats in the Senate as well.

 

[Missourian]

It all depends on the accuracy of the polling data.


I agree, Sen. McCain's chances are slight, but I have believed that since 2006.


President Bush won after eight years under President Clinton, even though he had a 60+ percent approval rating.


That the race is this close and the Republican candidate has a chance of winning is as much as any Republican could reasonably hope for.