Statistikhengst
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GOP insiders to Trump: Enough already
For the unitiated, the Politico Caucus is a series that does interviews with political operatives on the ground right now in the first four primary states, with heavy emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire. The interviewees are all listed in the article, but the exact quotes are anonymous.
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Who are party operatives? They are often elected officials who are already working in their respective states for one or more campaign. They are people who can best feel the pulse of their electorate. They are the people who help to ignite or destroy campaigns. They are the people who help tirelessely with GOTV efforts in both the primaries and in the General. No campaign can operate to any degree of success without have a good relationship to the operatives on the ground, and not just for the duration of the primaries.
If you read the quotes that I bolded in red, those Republican operatives are saying exactly what I have been saying for a long time now: that the stuff that is "red meat" for the extreme RW of the GOP ends up becoming a poison pill for the GOP in the Fall election. We saw this happen with McCain in 2008 and with Romney in 2012 and the added dynamic of an exponentially growing Latino vote and the power of the Latino community as a whole can only make this more difficult for the GOP.
The Trump team keeps coming back and saying that Trump is winning among Latinos. Well, no. He is doing well among the very few Latinos who are dedicated Republicans and have been polled, but the vast majority of Latinos are neither Republicans nor are they Conservatives and in national approval polling, Trump is at about 13% approval and 81% DISAPPROVAL among Latinos as a whole. That's a deficit of 68 points. That's enormous.
And I bet that the next wave of Latino polling is going to bear even worse news for the GOP than the last set of polling did, now that Trump has released his immigration reform plan that is totally nativist in character and would mean building a huge wall and also rounding up 11-12 million illegal aliens AND THEIR CHILDREN and deporting them. Extreme RW nativists might like to hear this stuff, but be guaranteed that Latinos, and I mean Latinos who are US citizens and who vote, are not.
So, what do you think of what the operatives are saying?
For the unitiated, the Politico Caucus is a series that does interviews with political operatives on the ground right now in the first four primary states, with heavy emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire. The interviewees are all listed in the article, but the exact quotes are anonymous.
Donald Trump may have the whole Republican field talking about immigration, but early-state insiders wish he would just stop.
Seven in 10 Republicans said they’ve heard more than enough about Trump’s plan, which includes a controversial call to end birthright citizenship, according to this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump’s plan calls for an end to policy that guarantees citizenship for children born in the United States to illegal immigrants. That’s one of several controversial provisions under Trump’s plan, which is particularly galling to New Hampshire GOP insiders — 85 percent of whom said the real estate mogul and current GOP front-runner’s immigration plan was harmful to the party.
Nearly two-thirds of Iowa Republicans said the same.
“He’s solidly put an anchor around the neck of our party, and we’ll sink because of it,” an Iowa Republican said of Trump.
“Enough already,” vented another Iowa Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “This kind of garbage only appeals to the hard core … while alienating the soft middle that we must win in order to take the presidency.”
A Granite State Republican said it was “harmful to the party, the brand and the future of our country. What’s disappointing is the speed in which other candidates follow his lead. He’s forced that to be standard operation.”
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“Wasn’t the whole “GOP rebrand” effort of the 2012 loss supposed to address this … in the opposite direction?” said a New Hampshire Democrat who, like all participants, answered via an online survey.
Ninety-seven percent of Democratic respondents called the plan harmful for the GOP.
“Quite a number of these candidates appear very willing to toss out any findings of the analysis of the last presidential election and put the general election at risk for their party,” another Granite State Democrat said.
Plenty of insiders on both sides of the aisle said that if the debate unfolding this week continues, Republicans will have a serious problem come general election time.
“This move is not helpful in broadening the November 2016 pool of voters,” warned a New Hampshire Republican.
“A great way to throw the general and become a permanent minority party,” agreed an Iowa Republican.
Who are party operatives? They are often elected officials who are already working in their respective states for one or more campaign. They are people who can best feel the pulse of their electorate. They are the people who help to ignite or destroy campaigns. They are the people who help tirelessely with GOTV efforts in both the primaries and in the General. No campaign can operate to any degree of success without have a good relationship to the operatives on the ground, and not just for the duration of the primaries.
If you read the quotes that I bolded in red, those Republican operatives are saying exactly what I have been saying for a long time now: that the stuff that is "red meat" for the extreme RW of the GOP ends up becoming a poison pill for the GOP in the Fall election. We saw this happen with McCain in 2008 and with Romney in 2012 and the added dynamic of an exponentially growing Latino vote and the power of the Latino community as a whole can only make this more difficult for the GOP.
The Trump team keeps coming back and saying that Trump is winning among Latinos. Well, no. He is doing well among the very few Latinos who are dedicated Republicans and have been polled, but the vast majority of Latinos are neither Republicans nor are they Conservatives and in national approval polling, Trump is at about 13% approval and 81% DISAPPROVAL among Latinos as a whole. That's a deficit of 68 points. That's enormous.
And I bet that the next wave of Latino polling is going to bear even worse news for the GOP than the last set of polling did, now that Trump has released his immigration reform plan that is totally nativist in character and would mean building a huge wall and also rounding up 11-12 million illegal aliens AND THEIR CHILDREN and deporting them. Extreme RW nativists might like to hear this stuff, but be guaranteed that Latinos, and I mean Latinos who are US citizens and who vote, are not.
So, what do you think of what the operatives are saying?