By the way, Obamacare is completely guttable -- Obama has shown how it is done. By Obama's precedent, the president has the power to ignore, change, nullify, exempt, etc. anything he wants with regard to the legislation.
In 2017, whatever shreds there are left of Obamacare can be buried by the Republican president chosen to fix the damage Obama deliberately inflicted upon America.
Yeah but you have to get elected first.... pretty hard to do when the TEA party makes any GOP contender veer to the right of Stalin in the primaries then forces them to lurch to the center during the General making their entire campaign look like a deceptive exercise.
Keep thinking that. Obamamania is over. Sanity is back in America.
Okay, lets look at how the last election went:
Romney Lost...
Those making less than $100K 54-44%
Those making less than $50K 60-38%
Latinos 71-27%
18-24 y/o 60-36%
25-29 y/o 60-38%
30-39 y/o 55-42%
Women 55-44%
Moderates 56-41% (Thanks TEA Party)
Urban voters 62-36%
I left out the blacks since there is no way the GOP will compete there.
So that leaves the GOP hope being pinned on Older Caucasian rural rich voters which already lean Republican.
All this is verifiable at:
Election Results - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
Obama won 332-206. The GOP needs to swing 64 electoral votes.
Obama won these battleground states:
FL 29
OH 18
NV 6
WI 10
PA 20
MI 16
MN 10
IA 6
To flip 64 votes, the GOP will have to hold all that it won in 2012 of course. That may not be as easy as it sounds with Hispanic voter levels on the rise throughout the south. Arizona may well be in play.
But lets say that they hold on to it. Flipping 64 votes will require no less than three states as long as one is Florida. If Rubio or Jeb Bush are the nominees this will be easy enough to get Florida. The problem is that Rubio is flaming out and has not established himself as a heavyweight. Jeb Bush may not want the job. Additionally, the other 34 votes are problematic. Pennsylvania will almost certainly have to factor into the swinging states and I think GHWB was the last man from the right to win the Pennsylvania vote. Obama got 52%. As imposing as it sounds, it's a better equation than Wisconsin where Obama got 53% and Michigan where our President got 54%. Additionally, the issue is that the rural, wealthy, caucasian, GOP-leaning, caucus you're going to have to energize is less of a factor in in PA, WI, MI.
Pushing the equation out even further, the Dems are going to have to hold on to all of the states that Obama won but can shed 64 of course. Can you tell me which of the Obama states is going to flip if the nominee is Hillary? If the nominee is Joe Biden? New Jersey, perhaps, if Christie is the nominee but you can kiss Florida goodbye. Scott Walker wins you Wisconsin but you lose Ohio and Michigan instantly. Ted Cruz? I chuckle.
Still an eternity to go before the polls open in 2016 but at this early date the Dems are looking pretty good when you frame the context into the only argument that matters; electoral math.
