New gun study
- Thread starter Brain357
- Start date
Missourian
Diamond Member
This is the abstract from the research. It seems pretty straightforward to me. They used statistics about events of firearm violence and rates of gun ownership in different regiions of the US. The areas with more gun ownership had higher levels of gun violence.New gun study...Finds that more guns does not lead to less crime...
Why do you doubt what is fact supported by empirical evidence? I suspect the only reason you doubt it is that you don't want to accept it: very logical indeed.
Do the extra guns cause the extra crime, or do law abiding citizens own more guns because they live in areas with high crime?
You could look at Chicago during the period when legal gun ownership was outlawed.
Did the anti-gun legislation reduce gun crime or non-gun crime. Not so much.
They found that gun ownership increased before crime. I think this study does more to show more guns does not equal less crime, than more guns equals more crime.
Pinpointing causation
The results do need to be interpreted with caution — this study method proves that more guns are linked to more gun crime and overall homicide, but not that access to guns directly causes this criminal uptick, said study researcher David Hemenway, the director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center.
"This study suggests that it's really hard to find evidence that where there are more guns, there are less crimes, but you can easily find evidence that where there are a lot more guns, there are a lot more gun crimes," Hemenway told Live Science.
It's possible that people stockpile guns in response to higher levels of crime. The researchers tried to tease out whether this was the case by testing whether gun ownership levels were a prerequisite for crime or a response to higher crime levels. Though they still couldn't prove causation, they did find that higher gun ownership levels preceded crime increases, not the other way around.
"It's difficult to imagine how the hypothesis that increased ownership reduces criminal behavior could be valid, given our findings," Monuteaux said.
Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Brain357
Platinum Member
- Mar 30, 2013
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- #23
Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Even now carry holders are less than 4% of the population. You can't seriously be claiming that tiny number of carriers is responsible for crime going down. Are you aware that since WI and Chicago got concealed carry the violent crime rates have gone up? I don't think it's the cause mind you, but its proof more guns doesn't equal less crime.
Missourian
Diamond Member
From your link:
A new study found that states with higher rates of firearms in the home have disproportionately big numbers of gun-related homicides.
States With More Guns Have More Homicides
States With More Guns Have More Homicides
This is obviously not true.
Brain357
Platinum Member
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- #25
That isn't the study in the OP. That is an older study. You are missing a lot of things that study seemed to account for.
The researchers found that for every 1 percent increase in gun ownership, a state’s firearm homicide rate jumped by 0.9 percent, the study found.
In other words, the model predicts a state like Mississippi would have 17-percent lower homicide rate if its gun ownership sunk to the national average.
auditor0007
Gold Member
Here is the deal on guns and/or gun control. So long as there are close to 300 million guns out there, criminals will have access to them, meaning that a lot of people believe they need guns for protection. You can't get rid of that need without removing all 300 million guns. This argument is never going to end, and it's highly unlikely we ever take everyone's guns away, so maybe we should just concentrate on preventing idiots from getting them. The biggest problem with that is that gun lovers think everyone should be able to buy any type of gun they want without even a background check. That gives us a very bad starting point.
2aguy
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Of course there are actual studies by economists and criminologists who disagree...18 to be exact....and please tell me that hemenway isn't part of this study.....
2aguy
Diamond Member
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This is the abstract from the research. It seems pretty straightforward to me. They used statistics about events of firearm violence and rates of gun ownership in different regiions of the US. The areas with more gun ownership had higher levels of gun violence.New gun study...Finds that more guns does not lead to less crime...
Why do you doubt what is fact supported by empirical evidence? I suspect the only reason you doubt it is that you don't want to accept it: very logical indeed.
Do the extra guns cause the extra crime, or do law abiding citizens own more guns because they live in areas with high crime?
Classic chicken-egg question.
Actually both are caused by having the values of a gun culture and not doing anything about it.
You could look at that, but it's not the topic. The topic is "more guns", not "more legislation".
You could look at that, but it's not the topic. The topic is "more guns", not "more legislation".
So less guns caused more crime and now more guns cause more crime.
Liberal logic! Reminds me of their AGW idiocy.
Yyyyyeah, unfortunately I didn't make any such point. I'm pretty sure I can still write my own points, but when I need to hire a writer I'll contact your agent.
There is a summary given in post 10 that may be more accurate:
"This study suggests that it's really hard to find evidence that where there are more guns, there are less crimes, but you can easily find evidence that where there are a lot more guns, there are a lot more gun crimes"
--- However you're both wrong about one thing:
FEWER guns and FEWER crimes.... not "less". Fewer of many; less of much.
Except for those National Crime statistics that show that gun murders are going down...not up........sort of makes the anti gun study look stupid...doesn't it......How is it possible that the national crime rate is going down as more people own and carry guns...but this study shows the opposite.......hmmmm...could it be anti gunners are faking the stats again....
Never, ever trust anti gunners...they lie...all the time...
jon_berzerk
Platinum Member
- Mar 5, 2013
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the one important thing to remember
is that the left should push for as much gun control as it can before and during the election season
is that the left should push for as much gun control as it can before and during the election season
2aguy
Diamond Member
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Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Even now carry holders are less than 4% of the population. You can't seriously be claiming that tiny number of carriers is responsible for crime going down. Are you aware that since WI and Chicago got concealed carry the violent crime rates have gone up? I don't think it's the cause mind you, but its proof more guns doesn't equal less crime.
And as John Lott points out the main crime deterrent is police...both Chicago and Milwaukee, where the gun murders are concentrated are short police....Chicago is down 2, 000 police officers.....
And concealed carry was just passed in each state barely 3 years ago for Wisconsin and 2 years for Illinois...and both of those cities are fighting the implementation of concealed carry......
Notice how you didn't mention balitmore....where they fingerprint gun owners, ban assault rifles, have a waiting period, magazine limits have banned the gun show loophole and have universal background checks.....and gun murder is sky rocketing........nice try though.....
2aguy
Diamond Member
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And countries with even more extreme gun control have even more gun murders than we do.......culture, not guns....
Missourian
Diamond Member
Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Even now carry holders are less than 4% of the population. You can't seriously be claiming that tiny number of carriers is responsible for crime going down. Are you aware that since WI and Chicago got concealed carry the violent crime rates have gone up? I don't think it's the cause mind you, but its proof more guns doesn't equal less crime.
The authors also said concealed carry policies on college campuses lead to a reduction in crime, using two Colorado schools as test cases. After the state enacted its concealed carry law in 2003, Colorado State University decided to allow students to carry concealed weapons while the University of Colorado prohibited them. The report found a 60 percent decrease in crime at Colorado State since 2004, while the University of Colorado saw a 35 percent increase during the same time period.
“(It does not) seem likely that a would-be robber would be deterred because of stickers on the doors announcing that armed robbery is severely frowned upon by the student code of conduct,” the report said. “Conversely, a campus that allows concealed carry, and where even one student, professor, or even a member of the maintenance staff is armed, would present a much riskier target to criminals.”
Marquette Wire Concealed carry prevents more crime than it creates study says
“(It does not) seem likely that a would-be robber would be deterred because of stickers on the doors announcing that armed robbery is severely frowned upon by the student code of conduct,” the report said. “Conversely, a campus that allows concealed carry, and where even one student, professor, or even a member of the maintenance staff is armed, would present a much riskier target to criminals.”
Marquette Wire Concealed carry prevents more crime than it creates study says
2aguy
Diamond Member
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Brain...I knew it...that hack hemenway did the study....he is a known liar and a fraud, an anti gun extremist....this study is crap from the get go.....
2aguy
Diamond Member
- Jul 19, 2014
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Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Even now carry holders are less than 4% of the population. You can't seriously be claiming that tiny number of carriers is responsible for crime going down. Are you aware that since WI and Chicago got concealed carry the violent crime rates have gone up? I don't think it's the cause mind you, but its proof more guns doesn't equal less crime.
Link to the study...I'm still reading it.The authors also said concealed carry policies on college campuses lead to a reduction in crime, using two Colorado schools as test cases. After the state enacted its concealed carry law in 2003, Colorado State University decided to allow students to carry concealed weapons while the University of Colorado prohibited them. The report found a 60 percent decrease in crime at Colorado State since 2004, while the University of Colorado saw a 35 percent increase during the same time period.
“(It does not) seem likely that a would-be robber would be deterred because of stickers on the doors announcing that armed robbery is severely frowned upon by the student code of conduct,” the report said. “Conversely, a campus that allows concealed carry, and where even one student, professor, or even a member of the maintenance staff is armed, would present a much riskier target to criminals.”
Marquette Wire Concealed carry prevents more crime than it creates study says
Brain is about to tell you the Cato institute can't be trusted...whereas the known hack, david hemenway who was part of brains study has been shown to create stats by using fake data......what a hack....
2aguy
Diamond Member
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Using the medical profession for guns studies is just bad.....they don't understand the issue and are anti gun in their research......and having hemenway in the study just multiplies these issues......
He used to work for Hand Gun Control Inc. that says a lot right there.....
He used to work for Hand Gun Control Inc. that says a lot right there.....
jon_berzerk
Platinum Member
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2aguy
Diamond Member
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This is the abstract from the research. It seems pretty straightforward to me. They used statistics about events of firearm violence and rates of gun ownership in different regiions of the US. The areas with more gun ownership had higher levels of gun violence.New gun study...Finds that more guns does not lead to less crime...
Why do you doubt what is fact supported by empirical evidence? I suspect the only reason you doubt it is that you don't want to accept it: very logical indeed.
Do the extra guns cause the extra crime, or do law abiding citizens own more guns because they live in areas with high crime?
You could look at Chicago during the period when legal gun ownership was outlawed.
Did the anti-gun legislation reduce gun crime or non-gun crime. Not so much.
They found that gun ownership increased before crime. I think this study does more to show more guns does not equal less crime, than more guns equals more crime.
Pinpointing causation
The results do need to be interpreted with caution — this study method proves that more guns are linked to more gun crime and overall homicide, but not that access to guns directly causes this criminal uptick, said study researcher David Hemenway, the director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center.
"This study suggests that it's really hard to find evidence that where there are more guns, there are less crimes, but you can easily find evidence that where there are a lot more guns, there are a lot more gun crimes," Hemenway told Live Science.
It's possible that people stockpile guns in response to higher levels of crime. The researchers tried to tease out whether this was the case by testing whether gun ownership levels were a prerequisite for crime or a response to higher crime levels. Though they still couldn't prove causation, they did find that higher gun ownership levels preceded crime increases, not the other way around.
"It's difficult to imagine how the hypothesis that increased ownership reduces criminal behavior could be valid, given our findings," Monuteaux said.
Except they intentionally restricted the crime parameters. Not all violent crime...just the small subset that gives them the result they wanted.
How do I know?
Because there are many more guns, and much fewer violent crimes across the board.
And when we look at the smallest gun ownership per capita states:
And then look at the Homicide Rate:
And then compare to Homicide By Firearm:
You see that states like Maryland, California and Illinois have low firearm ownership rates and higher murder rates and higher murder rates by firearms...whereas West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have very high firearm ownership and low murder rates with even lower murder rates by firearms.
Pretty much blows the whole "by state" statistical model to smithereens.
But what we do know without doubt is Gun Ownership is on the increase, and Violent Crime is on the decrease nationwide.
As conceal carry increased, and the population increased by 50 million people, all violent crime decreased...and in many categories the decrease has been almost 50%.
The graph won't fit the page...here is a thumbnail
of the FBI Graph:
Increased Conceal Carry:
These too are correlations...but pretty darned convincing correlations that More Guns = Less Crime.
Crime has been trending down since long before concealed carry started trending up.
Not really, they both went hand in hand...and to that point..concealed carry has been increasing...to over 11.1 million today...and the gun murder rate is going down.....so again, that study is crap...anything with hemenway attached to it is crap...
Missourian
Diamond Member
That's why I don't get into the studies like you guys do...I look at the data.
No one can argue that there aren't more guns.
If more guns actually equaled more crime...violent crime would be going up.
But instead, violent crime is declining and has been declining, even as the population is growing.
It's indisputable.
there4eyeM
unlicensed metaphysician
- Jul 5, 2012
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Strange you cannot understand the simple concept. Perhaps I'll get around to explaining it, but try to think about it a bit.
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