ReinyDays
Platinum Member
A single degree increase over the past 100 years ... less snow, I'm heartbroken ...
New discovery Hey, more ice .... not less and here is proof
- Thread starter Robert W
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A single degree increase over the past 100 years ... less snow, I'm heartbroken ...
You have a pilot's license. I have a degree in ocean engineering. Neither makes us climate scientists and from my point of view, that you reject an overwhelming majority of scientific conclusions tells me that you do NOT understand the subject as well as you seem to think you do.
Where did you get the idea that you should get climate science from YouTube?
The videos state the position of whoever wants to make a video and send it to YouTube. Would you take NOTAMs from YouTube? Would you take maintenance service bulletins from YouTube? No and no. So don't take your science there either. The best you're going to get from YouTube is how to reassemble your lawn mower's carburetor. YouTube is entertainment.
Not on YouTube you don't
The pleasure of your company
PSP? What is PSP?
Which is really surprising given your unreasonable opposition to the ocean controlling the planet's climate.
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- #124
He sure is devoted to climate alarmism.
No, it is not. As seems to be so often the case, nothing demonstrates your ignorance more thoroughly than your own statements.
You mean statements like these?
Ocean currents establish climate.
The ocean is the largest collector of solar energy.
The ocean stores the majority of the planet's heat.
The ocean is the largest feature of the planet.
The mass of the ocean is 300 times the mass of the atmosphere.
The ocean contains 1000 times more heat than the ocean.
The ocean heats the atmosphere.
The atmosphere does not heat the ocean.
Physical evidence shows that when ocean currents change, the climate changes.
Physical evidence shows ocean currents are responsible for northern hemisphere glaciation.
If heat circulation gets disrupted from the Atlantic to the Arctic, the planet cools.
Physical evidence shows ocean currents are responsible for northern hemisphere deglaciation.
If heat is being circulated from the Atlantic to the Arctic, the planet warms.
Physical evidence shows ocean currents are responsible for the initiation of the Little Ice Age.
Physical evidence shows ocean currents are responsible for the end of the Little Ice Age.
The current warming trend began 250 years before the industrial revolution.
The geologic record is littered with examples of naturally caused warming and cooling trends.
Empirical climate evidence shows the planet cooled for millions of years with >600 ppm of CO2.
The last interglacial period was 2C warmer with 26ft higher seas and 120ppm less CO2 than today.
In this case your ignorance is demonstrated by the fact that you think these points make your case when they do no such thing.
III.1. North Atlantic circulation as a trigger or an amplifier in rapid climate changes.
The circulation of the north Atlantic Ocean probably plays a major role in either triggering or amplifying rapid climate changes in the historical and recent geological record (Broecker 1995, Keigwin et al., 1994, Jones et al., 1996; Rahmstorf et al., 1996). The North Atlantic has a peculiar circulation pattern: the north-east trending Gulf Stream carries warm and relatively salty surface water from the Gulf of Mexico up to the seas between Greenland, Iceland and Norway. Upon reaching these regions, the surface waters cools off and (with the combination of being cooler and relatively salty because it mixes with mid-depth overflow water from the Mediterranean) becomes dense enough to sink into the deep ocean. The 'pull' exerted by this dense sinking water is thought to help maintain the strength of the warm Gulf Stream, ensuring a current of warm tropical water into the north Atlantic that sends mild air masses across to the European continent (e.g., Rahmstorf et al., 1996; Schmitz, 1995) (Fig. 3).
If the sinking process in the north Atlantic were to diminish or cease, the weakening of the warm Gulf Stream would mean that Europe had colder winters (e.g., Broecker, 1995). However, the Gulf Stream does not give markedly warmer summers in Europe - more the opposite in fact - so a shutting off of the mild Gulf Stream air masses does not in itself explain why summers also became colder during sudden cooling events (and why ice masses started to build up on land due to winter snows failing to melt during summer). In the North Atlantic itself, sea ice would form more readily in the cooler winter waters due to a shut-off of the Gulf Stream, and for a greater part of the year the ice would form a continuous lid over the north Atlantic. A lid of sea ice over the North Atlantic would last for a greater proportion of the year; this would reflect back solar heat, leading to cooler summers on the adjacent landmass as well as colder winters (e.g., Jones et al., 1996; Overpeck et al., 1997). With cooler summers, snow cover would last longer into the spring, further cooling the climate by reflecting back the sun's heat. The immediate result of all this would be a European and west Siberian climate that was substantially colder, and substantially drier because the air that reached Europe would carry less moisture, having come from a cold sea ice surface rather than the warm Gulf Stream waters.
After an initial rapid cooling event, the colder summers would also tend to allow the snow to build up year-on-year into a Scandinavian ice sheet, and as the ice built up it would reflect more of the Sun's heat, further cooling the land surface, and giving a massive high pressure zone that would be even more effective at diverting Gulf Stream air and moisture away from the mid-latititudes of Europe. This would reinforce a much colder regional climate.
The trigger for a sudden 'switching off' or a strong decrease in deep water formation in the North Atlantic must be found in a decrease in density of surface waters in the areas of sinking in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Such a decrease in density would result from changes in salinity (addition of fresh water from rivers, precipitation, or melt water), and/or increased temperatures (Dickson et al., 1988; Rahmstorf et al., 1996). For example, an exceptionally wet year on the landmasses which have rivers draining into the Arctic sea (Siberia, Canada, Alaska) would lead to such a decreased density. Ocean circulation modelling studies suggest that a relatively small increase in freshwater flux (called 'polar halocline catastrophe') to the Arctic Sea could cause deep water production in the north Atlantic to cease (e.g., Mikolajewicz and Maier-Reimer, 1994; Rahmstorf, 1994; Rahmstorf et al., 1996; 141).
During glacial phases, the trigger for a shut-off or a decrease in deep water formation could be the sudden emptying into the northern seas of a lake formed along the edge of a large ice sheet on land (for instance, the very large ice-dammed lake that existed in western Siberia), or a diversion of a meltwater stream from the North American Laurentide ice sheet through the Gulf of St. Lawrence , as seems to have occurred as part of the trigger for the Younger Dryas cold event (e.g., Kennett, 1990; Berger and Jansen, 1995). A pulse of fresh water would dilute the dense, salty GulfStream and float on top, forming a temporary lid that stopped the sinking of water that helps drive the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream could weaken and its northern end (the North Atlantic Drift) could switch off altogether, breaking the 'conveyer belt' and allowing an extensive sea ice cap to form across the North Atlantic, preventing the ocean current from starting up again at its previous strength. Theoretically, the whole process could occur very rapidly, in the space of just a few decades or even several years. The result could be a very sudden climate change to colder conditions, as has happened many times in the area around the North Atlantic during the last 100,000 years.
The sudden switch could also occur in the opposite direction, for example if warmer summers caused the sea ice to melt back to a critical point where the sea ice lid vanished and the Gulf Stream was able to start up again. Indeed, following an initial cooling event the evaporation of water vapour in the tropical Atlantic could result in an 'oscillator' whereby the salinity of Atlantic Ocean surface water (unable to sink into the north Atlantic because of the lid of sea ice) built up to a point where strong sinking began to occur anyway at the edges of the sea ice zone. The onset of sinking could result in a renewed northward flux of warm water and air to the north Atlantic, giving a sudden switch to warmer climates, as is observed many times within the record of the last 130,000 years or so.
The process of switching off or greatly dimishing the flow of the Gulfstream would not only affect Europe. Antarctica would be even colder than it is now, because much of the heat that it does receive now ultimately comes from Gulf Stream water that sinks in the north Atlantic, travels in a sort of river down the western side of the deep Atlantic Basin and then rat least partially esurfaces just off the bays of the Antarctic coastline (e.g., Schmitz, 1995). Even though this water is only a few degrees above freezing when it reaches the surface, this water is much warmer than the adjacent Antarctic continent, helping to melt back some of the sea ice that forms around Antarctica in the ice-free regions called polynyas. The effect of switching off the deepwater heat source would be cooler air and a greater sea ice extent around Antarctica, reflecting more sunlight and further cooling the region. However, the north Atlantic deep water takes several hundred years to travel from its place of origin to the Antarctic coast, so it could only produce an effect a few centuries after the change occurred in the North. It is not known what delay was present in the various climate changes that occurred between the north Atlantic region and Antarctica, but it is generally thought that other (relatively indirect) climate mechanisms, such as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, linked these two far-flung regions and sometimes produced closely synchronised changes (i.e. within a few centuries of one another).
Although the end of the Last Glacial and various other sudden climate events such as Heinrich events do show up in the Antarctic ice record, not all large changes show such a closely linked occurrence and timing around the world. For example there is no clear trace of the Younger Dryas in the Vostok ice core from Antarctica (Chapellaz et al. 1993; Broecker, 1998), and the warming at the start of the Eemian also does not seem to particularly closely linked to the timing of the warming which took place in the northern latitudes (Sowers et al. 1993).
During the colder glacial phases, deep water formation in the present areas between Greenland, Iceland and Norway would have ceased or dimished due to a thick cap of sea ice (though there is evidence it occasionally opened up to let Gulf Stream water through to the sea between Iceland and Norway, this did not result in much deepwater formation and so the pull and the northward heat flux seems to have been small). Instead, during the most intense cold phases the deepwater formation area seems to have moved to the south of the British Isles, at the edge of the extended sea ice zone (e.g., , Imbrie et al. 1992, Duplessey et al. 1984; Maslin et al., 1997). Even here, deep water formation seems to have been weaker than at present, producing relatively small quantities which penetrated to mid-depths rather than to the deepest ocean basins. This was probably at least partly because the whole surface of the Atlantic Ocean (even the tropics) was cooler; with less evaporation from its surface, even the water that did reach northwards was less briney (and thus less dense), so less able to sink when it reached the cold edge of the sea ice zone. An initial slowdown of north Atlantic circulation may have been the initial trigger for a set of amplifying factors (see below) that rapidly led to a cooling of the tropical Atlantic, reinforcing the sluggish state of the glacial-age Gulf Stream.
The idea of Gulf Stream slowdowns as a mechanism in climate change is not merely theoretical. There is actually evidence from the study of ocean sediments that deepwater formation in the north Atlantic was diminished during the sudden cold Heinrich events and other colder phases of the last 130,000 years, including the Younger Dryas phase (e.g., Fairbanks, 1989; Kennett, 1990; Maslin, 199x). The same appears to have been true further back in time to 1.5 Myr ago (Raymo et al. 1998). The process also 'switched on' rapidly at times when climates suddenly warmed around the north Atlantic Basin, such as at the beginning of interstadials or the beginning of the present interglacial (Ramussen et al. 1997). Decreasing deep water formation occurred at times when the climate was cooling towards the end of an interstadial, and it diminished suddenly with the final cooling event that marked the end of the interstadial (Ramussen et al., 1997), and over a period of less than 300 years at the beginning of the Younger Dryas (e.g., Berger and Jansen, 1995).
The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.
Hemispheric stadial events are not the glacial-interglacial cycle. The text specifically states it is addressing hemispherical behavior in the period 25,000 to 60,000 years ago, a span entirely contained within the most recent glacial period. AGAIN, your links fail to state what you claim they state. You have yet to provide a SINGLE SOURCE supporting your contention that the glacial-interglacial cycle is driven by changes in ocean currents.
It's funny watching you arguing against these scientific papers.
These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126...6472541199F70A4C98A6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1723213472
You believe what you believe because you believe your god told you so, don't you?
Nope. I believe the physical evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial and interglacial climate change.
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- #134
How can he control you or any of us here if you keep discussing the Ocean. He came to blast humans, not the ocean.
How can ding control us if you keep giving it away?How can he control you or any of us here if you keep discussing the Ocean. He came to blast humans, not the ocean.
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- #136
If, huh??
That's what I thought.
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Geez.... Iran is betting that our fists wear out before their face does....
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