Statistikhengst
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http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/15398 NBCWSJ September Poll (2).pdf
Released 28.09.2015 - 1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
There is a HUGE amount of information within this poll, all worth noticing, including some major issues.
GOP nomination (pre-released on 27.09)
NBC/ WSJ poll, released 27.09.2015:
206 RLV, MoE = +/-6.5
Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie) over Carson. Rubio is now in double digits. Bush is in 5th place. Cruz is in 7th.
DEM nomination:
NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 256 DLV, MoE = +/-6.1
Margin: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +15 (without Biden in the mix)
Presidential matchups (D vs. R):
NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Values in parentheses = the results of the last NBC/WSJ matchup, from 06/15, where possible
Clinton 45 / Carson 46, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +1
Clinton 45 (48) / Bush 44 (40), margin = Clinton +1 (+8)
Clinton 48 / Trump 38 , margin = Clinton +10
Biden 48 (40) / Bush 40 (48), margin = Biden +8 (Bush +8)
Biden 47 / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +6
Biden 49 / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +8
Biden 56 / Trump 35 , margin = Biden +21
Sanders 52 / Trump 36 , margin = Sanders +16
FAV / UNFAV ratings:
(Positive/Negative view is how NBC words it, the same as FAV/UNFAV)
Biden FAV 40 / UNFAV 28, +12
Sanders FAV 32 / UNFAV 21, +11
Democratic Party FAV 41 / UNFAV 35, +6
Carson FAV 29 / UNFAV 21, +8
Fiorina FAV 27 / UNFAV 20, +7
---------------------------------------------------
Clinton FAV 39 / UNFAV 47, -8
Bush FAV 24 / UNFAV 39, -15
Republican Party FAV 29 / UNFAV 45, -16
Trump FAV 25 / UNFAV 58, -33
As of p. 20 at the link (.pdf), there are a number of hot-button issues that were polled, and they could worth a look, for instance, the possible defunding of planned parenthood or immigration reform/14th amendment:
There are more such issues to look at in the poll.
Take aways from this poll:
1.) Dr. Ben Carson's (R-MI) stock has risen greatly among Republican voters. He also has the best FAV/UNFAV values for a Republican in this poll.
2.) Vice President Biden is soaring. Seeing Democrat with a +21 winning margin over a Republican is something we have not been used to. Clinton's numbers are still suffering and her FAV/UNFAV is not good, and yet, she also handily beats Trump by +10 and is locked in statistical ties with the other three.
3.) Trump is losing ground - both at the GOP nomination level and nationally. He also has the highest negative FAV/UNFAV value of the candidates and is the only candidate whose UNFAV shoots over the 50 mark. Trump is doing so badly that even Sanders, a self-identified Democratic-Socialist, beats Donald Trump by +16 and is over the 50 mark. That says something. In fact, David Wissing, who heads up a very Right-Wing oriented polling blog, says essentially the same thing:
Trump Would Be A Disaster For GOP « The Hedgehog Report
Now, as I almost always write, this is just one poll, but NBC and WSJ, which uses HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES as their double-pollster, have a pretty darned good track record and in fact, their mathematical bias from the 2012 elections is two points to the RIGHT, not to the left:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?
Here a screenshot from that report, from February 4th, 2013:
So, I would not discount the NBC/WSJ numbers as somehow "leftist". They are not.
-Stat
