Liberal darling Nate Silver has Trump up 55%-45%.

[para bellum]

What happened in 2020 during the pandemic means exactly jack and shit compared to 2024.

It's the only election that I care about when making the comparison. Biden vs. Trump then, today it's Harris vs. Trump.

As I posted earlier today, seniors are not voting for Trump in PA. Seniors are the largest voting block in PA and he is going to lose that state by a large margin.

Seniors are not the largest voting block, they makeup about 22% of the voting age population in PA. The 45-64 age group make up about 36%, 30-44 is 22%, and the under 30's make up about 20%.

Seniors are over-represented in early voting for obvious reasons.

You do not know how seniors are voting, you read some journo and you think you know...

Pew Research says seniors vote red, file your grievance with them.

A majority of voters under 30 align with the Democrats; Republicans have the edge among those over 60

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

It's the only election that I care about when making the comparison. Biden vs. Trump then, today it's Harris vs. Trump.

You shouldn't be making the comparison...that's the point, Kleetus.

Seniors are not the largest voting block, they makeup about 22% of the voting age population in PA. The 45-64 age group make up about 36%, 30-44 is 22%, and the under 30's make up about 20%.

Seniors are over-represented in early voting for obvious reasons.

You do not know how seniors are voting, you read some journo and you think you know...

Seniors are not voting for Trump. Trump has already lost PA. --

Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors.

It’s a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections.

In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.

The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

Pew Research says seniors vote red, file your grievance with them.

A majority of voters under 30 align with the Democrats; Republicans have the edge among those over 60

www.pewresearch.org

That's not what is happening so far this election, Kleetus.

 

[para bellum]

Democrats alone make up over 50% of those new voters including men and women.

And repubs make up 35% and indies make up 15% and its the NET that matters.

Add that to the independent voters leaning democrat, it’s a bad number for republicans. Even among republicans in general nationwide, 1 out of 10 of them plan to vote for Harris.

There have been never-Trump republicans since 2016, you guys seem to think the "Haley voters" as you call them are something new...

If you think you know how indies will fall, you know more than me. All I have on that is the polling, which varies widely depending on the poll and who the candidates are. I guess that's why they are called independents, lol.

We'll know soon enough.

 

[justoffal]

Oh I am not really making assumptions, just comparing turnout rates and what the final early returns would theoretically look like.

There are more Democrats than Republicans and more left leaning independents than the other kind.

 

[Missourian]

Well...I promise you that Silver doesn't have Trump up 55% - 45% anymore.

I predict Harris is going to win by at least 5% - 6%.

A prediction totally divorced from reality...

... Just like the rest of your posts...but at least you're consistent.

 

[para bellum]

There are more Democrats than Republicans and more left leaning independents than the other kind.

That may be, but it's who votes that matters. Indies especially, many of them were registered at the DMV when they got their license, and they will not even show up. Lots of low-propensity voters, both R and D.

R's have made a lot of progress on the registration side and outpaced D's in all the swing states.

It's all about turnout, it always is...

 

[Nostra]

Well...I promise you that Silver doesn't have Trump up 55% - 45% anymore.

I predict Harris is going to win by at least 5% - 6%.

My link was from yesterday, Simp.

 

[Dragonlady]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

Nate Silver's new venture is being funded by Peter Thiele. He's not going to bite the hand that feeds him. He can't afford to. Silver is accusing pollsters of doing what he's trying to do. He knows they're doing this because he's doing it too.

Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report

As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket is striking while the iron is hot by hiring popular statistician and writer Nate Silver as an adviser.

finance.yahoo.com

Silver's newletters have become increasingly desperate to make it appear that Trump has a chance here.

 

[Dragonlady]

That may be, but it's who votes that matters. Indies especially, many of them were registered at the DMV when they got their license, and they will not even show up. Lots of low-propensity voters, both R and D.

R's have made a lot of progress on the registration side and outpaced D's in all the swing states.

It's all about turnout, it always is...

Trump has dropped the ball completely on turn out. Harris has tens of thousands of volunteers and an organization which has turned out the Democratic vote in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Harris volunteer knocked on 3 million doors, just this past weekend.

Trump fired all of his paid staffers in the swing states, and allowed Elon Musk, who has never run an election campaign in his life, to handle turn out. Musk was still trying to hire workers to do this work last month, and getting few takers.

Many people are telling Harris workers that this is the second or third time, they've been visited by Harris volunteers, but there has been no sign of Trump's people.

Trump spent all of the money he raised on lawyers and high living. He doesn't need your votes. He can cheat his way back into the White House.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Trump has dropped the ball completely on turn out.

Fact is, you have no idea if any of this is true or not.

 

[Billy000]

Such as?

Thomas Miller, Alan Lichtman, the stock market are all respected forecasters who have a track record of correctly calling the winner in previous elections given their models. They give Harris the win.

Early voting data shows that democrats have more new voters than republicans. More than half of the new voters in PA are democrats. About a 1/3 are for independents and IND voters break mostly for Harris in that state.

The Nevada data guru Ralston gives Harris the win in Nevada. He has a perfect track record of predicting a candidate winning that state.

Asian American voters proved decisive in the sun belt in 2020. Their total turnout from 2020 has already been surpassed. They are the reason Biden won Georgia.

Trump has mostly failed to turn out the low propensity voters he said he would given the data thus far.

 

[LAUGHatLEFTISTS]

Face it leftists, if your “news” sources don’t have the Kommie up by at least five percent she’s in big trouble.

 

[Dragonlady]

Fact is, you have no idea if any of this is true or not.

Fact is my sources are all able to pass fact checks, and have proven to the trustworthy, over the years.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Fact is my sources...

You have no source for the quoted claim you made in post #49.
You made it all up, and you have no idea if it is true or not.

 

[marvin martian]

Someone also needs to point out to you how statistically insignificant this actually is. It’s significantly no better than if it was an even 50-50 split or if it was Harris who had 55% instead. It’s completely the same as a coin flip. Silver himself makes this clear lol

I hope that lie helps you get through the day.

 

[Nostra]

Fact is my sources are all able to pass fact checks, and have proven to the trustworthy, over the years.

What a pantload. You and your “sources’ are always full of shit.