Mr President please stop lying to us all.

[Charles_Main]

Lets compare recessions.

Every time Obama or any other Democrat tells us we face the worst economy since the Great Depression. They are lying to your face.


See this article
It's a Recession Not a 'Catastrophe'

President Obama, writing in the Washington Post, said, "By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression." But how would we know if and when this crisis is really more "deep and dire" than others?

Many may believe we're in the worst recession since the Great Depression, if only because politicians and the press keep repeating that claim. But we need to compare some facts to discern whether this recession is (or will be) "worse" in some sense than those of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee that if the economy is still contracting by mid-year, then this recession will be longer than the 1981-82 and 1973-75 downturns, each of which lasted 16 months. Yet this recession was quite mild until last September. And the severity and human discomfort of downturns can't be measured by their duration.

A wise adviser to President John Kennedy, Arthur Okun of Yale, devised the "misery index" to gauge the pain of economic crisis - a measure that simply adds together the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It hit 22 percent in June 1980, during an inflationary recession that preceded the Fed's disinflationary squeeze of 1981-82. The misery index was nearly as bad in January 1975, at 19.9 percent.

Assuming inflation was close to zero this January, the misery index would have been roughly the same as the unemployment rate, or 7.6 percent. By this standard, we have a very long way to go before the economy feels nearly as miserable as it did in 1975 or 1980.

There are several other ways to measure economic distress, however, some of which are shown in the nearby table. The first two columns show the total change in real GDP and industrial production from the economy's peak to its trough for that cycle.

Current data show only what happened so far, of course. But that gives us some idea of how much further the economy would have to fall to end up as "deep and dire" as the recessions of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

An average of 55 forecasters in the Jan. 15 Wall Street Journal survey expect real GDP to fall by another percentage point (a 2.1 percent drop in total) before recovering in the third quarter. If they're right, this would be just the third deepest postwar recession by that broad measure.

Measured by unemployment, on the other hand, this might well be the second deepest recession. The current unemployment rate of 7.6 percent is quite unlikely to reach the postwar record of 10.8 percent. But the Journal forecasters expect the jobless rate to top out at 8.9 percent after the recession is technically over - making this very close to becoming the second worst recession in terms of job loss.

It seems the Democrats are just as capable as the Republicans at lying and fear mongering.

Go figure.

 

[AllieBaba]

What the hell do dems know about the truth. I had a coworker waxing hysterical about the terrible job losses and financial ruin everyone around us (not us, or anyone she knows...but she's sure they're out there) are suffering, comparing it to the Great Depression.

I reminded her that during the Depression, 29 percent were unemployed (10.5 percent now...it was only 5.5 percent a year ago...), and I reminded her that the unemployment rate after WWII was comparable.

She called me a liar. That was her response. She admitted to not knowing, to not really researching the numbers, but because she didn't like what I was saying, she just said straight up to my face that I was a liar. Further, she said she wasn't going to look it up.

This is the mentality we're dealing with.

 

[Modbert]

What the hell do dems know about the truth. I had a coworker waxing hysterical about the terrible job losses and financial ruin everyone around us (not us, or anyone she knows...but she's sure they're out there) are suffering, comparing it to the Great Depression.

I reminded her that during the Depression, 29 percent were unemployed (10.5 percent now...it was only 5.5 percent a year ago...), and I reminded her that the unemployment rate after WWII was comparable.

She called me a liar. That was her response. She admitted to not knowing, to not really researching the numbers, but because she didn't like what I was saying, she just said straight up to my face that I was a liar. Further, she said she wasn't going to look it up.

This is the mentality we're dealing with.

The unemployment numbers are understated. After awhile, when people stop collecting benefits; as does their being counted. The unemployment rate is more along 13.5% if not higher and near 15% if not higher in some states such as Rhode Island.

 

[AllieBaba]

That's right. Since the employment numbers don't jibe with your mantra, the EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE A LIE!

Give me a fucking break.

 

[Charles_Main]

The unemployment numbers are understated. After awhile, when people stop collecting benefits; as does their being counted. The unemployment rate is more along 13.5% if not higher and near 15% if not higher in some states such as Rhode Island.

Yes but that was true in both the recessions listed in the graph as well. So it is hardly relevant to the point. Which is the numbers do not support the Idea that this is the worst economic time since the great depression. In Fact it is only the worst economic time since the last Major recession. It is in fact not even as bad as the last major recession.

Yet here we are poised to spend a Trillion on this Stimulus, after the 700 Billion we have already spent, and with a another whole Package for the Mortgage industry on the way, all based on the Idea that this is the worst Economic Times since the great depression, and if we do not act NOW, in this specific way, we will face ruin.

When are you going to wake up and realize you are repeating the Errors of Bush? You are in fact supporting doubling down on deficit spending as a solution to problems caused by our DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Article 15]

I seem to recall reading somewhere that unemployment isn't calculated the same way it used to be back when Carter was in office. That it's since been adjusted to make the numbers artificially low.

Does anyone know if that's true and if so what would our numbers be today if we used the same formula?

 

[Dark Starscream]

There are three types of lies:

1) White lies.
2) Damn lies.
3) Statistics.

I know a LOT of educated, hard-working people who are having a hard time finding work right now. I have been in retail management for 15 years, managing stores like Target, Sears, and OfficeMax, and I can tell you that this is the WORST it has ever been. Every year for about the last eight years has been bleaker than the prior, running double-digit sales decreases. And just when you think you're operating on a skeleton crew making the lowest they can possibly make, payroll gets slashed more, benefits and pensions get cut, and more stores close.

Last week we had to announce to our associates that there would be no more 401K match and no merit raises indefinitely. INDEFINITELY.

This IS a recession, the worst I have seen in my lifetime. Obama and Congress are doing the right things. The wrong thing to do right now would be nothing.

 

[Dark Starscream]

What the hell do dems know about the truth. I had a coworker waxing hysterical about the terrible job losses and financial ruin everyone around us (not us, or anyone she knows...but she's sure they're out there) are suffering, comparing it to the Great Depression.

I reminded her that during the Depression, 29 percent were unemployed (10.5 percent now...it was only 5.5 percent a year ago...), and I reminded her that the unemployment rate after WWII was comparable.

She called me a liar. That was her response. She admitted to not knowing, to not really researching the numbers, but because she didn't like what I was saying, she just said straight up to my face that I was a liar. Further, she said she wasn't going to look it up.

This is the mentality we're dealing with.

The unemployment numbers are understated. After awhile, when people stop collecting benefits; as does their being counted. The unemployment rate is more along 13.5% if not higher and near 15% if not higher in some states such as Rhode Island.

You are correct, sir.

 

[auditor0007]

There are three types of lies:

1) White lies.
2) Damn lies.
3) Statistics.

I know a LOT of educated, hard-working people who are having a hard time finding work right now. I have been in retail management for 15 years, managing stores like Target, Sears, and OfficeMax, and I can tell you that this is the WORST it has ever been. Every year for about the last eight years has been bleaker than the prior, running double-digit sales decreases. And just when you think you're operating on a skeleton crew making the lowest they can possibly make, payroll gets slashed more, benefits and pensions get cut, and more stores close.

Last week we had to announce to our associates that there would be no more 401K match and no merit raises indefinitely. INDEFINITELY.

This IS a recession, the worst I have seen in my lifetime. Obama and Congress are doing the right things. The wrong thing to do right now would be nothing.

You're missing the point. Yes, things are bad, but they are nowhere near as bad as some other recessions, and we are certainly nowhere near being in a recession.

That being said, many of the real fears revolve around the simple fact that the cause of this recession is not something that is easily fixable. The drop in housing is leading the way, and was brought on by the credit crunch. But more than the credit crunch is the underlying fact that we overbuilt; we have too many houses and even with a low unemployment rate, there would not be enough potential buyers to reduce home inventory levels to a managable level. And this is not going to change for some time, which means this recovery, once started, is going to be very slow.

As far as being worse than the Great Depression, that is complete nonsense. And today, we have so many safety nets, that falling into a depression is almost completely impossible. The only thing that could destroy us is a run on the banks, something that apparently began to happen back in September. There again, the government stepped in to stop it form going into freefall.

One of the biggest concerns is the negative commentary we hear every single day. Making people feel scared can become a self fulfilling prophesy. We need a little objectivity and less scare mongering from everyone.

 

[indago]

What the hell do dems know about the truth. I had a coworker waxing hysterical about the terrible job losses and financial ruin everyone around us (not us, or anyone she knows...but she's sure they're out there) are suffering, comparing it to the Great Depression.

I reminded her that during the Depression, 29 percent were unemployed (10.5 percent now...it was only 5.5 percent a year ago...), and I reminded her that the unemployment rate after WWII was comparable.

She called me a liar. That was her response. She admitted to not knowing, to not really researching the numbers, but because she didn't like what I was saying, she just said straight up to my face that I was a liar. Further, she said she wasn't going to look it up.

This is the mentality we're dealing with.

What's really funny is when she tells someone else who is in the know about what you said and they say: "Yes, that's true!" Don't you wish you could be there to see her face when he tells her that!

 

[indago]

I seem to recall reading somewhere that unemployment isn't calculated the same way it used to be back when Carter was in office. That it's since been adjusted to make the numbers artificially low.

Does anyone know if that's true and if so what would our numbers be today if we used the same formula?

Table A-12 U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT = 13.9%

 

[editec]

Time SEEM worse to me than the late 70s-early 80's recession.

Mostly, I think, that is because the American working class are starting out in this recession POORER than they were in the last 70's.

Part of the proccess of weathering an economic downturn is having enough resources to be able to weather it.

Fewer people, NOW, are in that position than were in that position in the late 70's.

A small percentage of us are MUCH BETTER off, of course, but in the final analysis, more people are unprepared to weather this storm than in the late 70s.

 

[indago]

Yet here we are poised to spend a Trillion on this Stimulus, after the 700 Billion we have already spent, and with a another whole Package for the Mortgage industry on the way, all based on the Idea that this is the worst Economic Times since the great depression, and if we do not act NOW, in this specific way, we will face ruin.

In the news:

"Ailing Banks May Require More Aid to Keep Solvent"

Oh, by all means...

— GIVE THEM MUNNY —

"In Florida, Despair and Foreclosures"

— GIVE THEM MUNNY —

"Disappearing Jobs"

— GIVE THEM MUNNY —

 

[Bern80]

Time SEEM worse to me than the late 70s-early 80's recession.

Mostly, I think, that is because the American working class are starting out in this recession POORER than they were in the last 70's.

Part of the proccess of weathering an economic downturn is having enough resources to be able to weather it.

Fewer people, NOW, are in that position than were in that position in the late 70's.

A small percentage of us are MUCH BETTER off, of course, but in the final analysis, more people are unprepared to weather this storm than in the late 70s.

I will buy the argument that maybe it was you made before that inflation is generally outpacing cost of living pay increase in the labor market. $10 today doesn't buy as much as it did in the 70's. But here's where the dead horse of personal responsibility I continue to beat comes into play yet again. If we find it reasonable to expect our employers to come up with some way to pay us more to maintain x level of cost of living due to inflation (which your employer feels the sting of as well by the way), where is there no expectation on the individual to do the same? If $10 isn't getting what it did in the 70s why don't YOU figure out how to make $15.

I believe this is more evidence of my theory (which you asked for in another thread but did not comment on) that our problems have a lot to do with how our society has progressed and our behavior as individuals. It is undeniable that our society has progressed from a point history where the bulk of most of people's time was consumed with doing what it takes to survive, to the point we have reached now where figuring out how to provide for our basic needs is something that consumes not so much of our time. Because of that change people's attitudes change. More time is spent on the things we WANT to do than the things we NEED to do. So it makes perfect sense (to me anyway) that since we have progressed in this way as a society, when true adversity strikes, we are less prepared to deal with it, due in large part to our own negligence. It makes perfect sense that there is this sense of urgency and impending doom even though as the OP's graph cleary shows things are not nearly as bad as they have been before and life went on even in those times.

 

[Munin]

Lets compare recessions.

Every time Obama or any other Democrat tells us we face the worst economy since the Great Depression. They are lying to your face.


See this article
It's a Recession Not a 'Catastrophe'

President Obama, writing in the Washington Post, said, "By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression." But how would we know if and when this crisis is really more "deep and dire" than others?

Many may believe we're in the worst recession since the Great Depression, if only because politicians and the press keep repeating that claim. But we need to compare some facts to discern whether this recession is (or will be) "worse" in some sense than those of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee that if the economy is still contracting by mid-year, then this recession will be longer than the 1981-82 and 1973-75 downturns, each of which lasted 16 months. Yet this recession was quite mild until last September. And the severity and human discomfort of downturns can't be measured by their duration.

A wise adviser to President John Kennedy, Arthur Okun of Yale, devised the "misery index" to gauge the pain of economic crisis - a measure that simply adds together the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. It hit 22 percent in June 1980, during an inflationary recession that preceded the Fed's disinflationary squeeze of 1981-82. The misery index was nearly as bad in January 1975, at 19.9 percent.

Assuming inflation was close to zero this January, the misery index would have been roughly the same as the unemployment rate, or 7.6 percent. By this standard, we have a very long way to go before the economy feels nearly as miserable as it did in 1975 or 1980.

There are several other ways to measure economic distress, however, some of which are shown in the nearby table. The first two columns show the total change in real GDP and industrial production from the economy's peak to its trough for that cycle.

Current data show only what happened so far, of course. But that gives us some idea of how much further the economy would have to fall to end up as "deep and dire" as the recessions of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

An average of 55 forecasters in the Jan. 15 Wall Street Journal survey expect real GDP to fall by another percentage point (a 2.1 percent drop in total) before recovering in the third quarter. If they're right, this would be just the third deepest postwar recession by that broad measure.

Measured by unemployment, on the other hand, this might well be the second deepest recession. The current unemployment rate of 7.6 percent is quite unlikely to reach the postwar record of 10.8 percent. But the Journal forecasters expect the jobless rate to top out at 8.9 percent after the recession is technically over - making this very close to becoming the second worst recession in terms of job loss.

It seems the Democrats are just as capable as the Republicans at lying and fear mongering.

Go figure.

This is an economic world crisis, not just another american recession. The president got it right, this could change (or it is already doing that) into a something much worse if we don't watch our steps.

 

[xsited1]

As most thinking people know, Obama and his Democrat friends are only using fear tactics to pass the largest pork bill in history. This is by design. They want the government to be a more controlling force in our lives and they may not get another chance. Once big-government programs are put in place, it's virtually impossible to reverse them.