Meet the dude who was Eric Cantor's pollster

[Statistikhengst]

John McLaughlin​

McLaughlin owns this:

McLaughlin & Associates


This is the dude who claimed that Eric Cantor was up by double-digits over Dave Brat, just days before the primary, when in reality, Dave Brat won by a double-digit margin.

Must really, really suck being that far off.


But this is really fun:

New ads hit AK-SEN, AR-GOV ? Obama raises for super PACs ? Clinton suits up ? Polling wars rage - POLITICO Morning Score - POLITICO.com

MCLAUGHLIN, ROUND 3: Yesterday, we presented GOP pollster John McLaughlin’s rejoinder to criticism of his 2012 polling -- in light of his big miss in House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s race. McLaughlin said that polls in early- and mid-October showing Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock and Virginia Senate candidate George Allen ahead were conducted too early to be considered predictive, and both races moved away from Republicans in the final weeks.

But POLITICO yesterday obtained brushfire polling memos from McLaughlin dated about a week before the election: In a memo dated October 30, both Allen and Mitt Romney led in Virginia, 50-44. In an October 31 memo from Indiana, Mourdock led, 47-45.

McLaughlin’s response: “As for Virginia I said: ‘Our last internal poll was over a week out and the leads were lost in that week.’ This seems to be factually correct. Wasn't October 30 over a week out from the November 6 election? Hurricane Sandy hit Virginia and we didn't track there after that. I did hear reports that other Republican organizations did poll later right before election day and it wasn't good.”

“Your source appears to be proving my statements to you to be not only accurate, but also honest,” continued McLaughlin. “If your source thinks we should have won these races in a year when Republicans lost the Presidency, lost seats in the Senate and the House, the source should go on record and make their case. We do our best to help our candidates win, but most of the time we're just reporting a snapshot in time when public opinion can change.”

That is just absolutely rich. And McLaughlin loves to lie. Romney never had a real statistical lead in polling averages in VA, ever. So, McLaughlin predicted Romney +6 and Obama actually won by +4 in November, 2012. Gee, McLaughlin was only off by 10 full points!!!

Now, since McLauglin is considered a minor blip on the big screen, I did not include an analysis of his stuff here:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

But, in the excel document of all 2012 polling, you can find his numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Q0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=0

For instance, in Virginia:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=92


Mebbe McLaughlin and Wenzel should combine forces....



2016: "Hillary down by 6"
Election night: Hillary wins by 15.

 

[The Rabbi]

/Yawn.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Wishing you a good nap. Now, let's see if I can find some more shitty GOP pollsters to laugh at....