The moon is commercially viable, first as an outpost, for development, then as a platform for transporting materials both raw and processed into Earth orbit (and finally commercially for tourism).The moon has an abundance of metallic magnesium, oxygen, some helium-3, and water-ice exists in certain crater bottoms. But if not, the raw materials exist there to produce water. Once a base was established on the moon, followed by the next "development" steps mentioned above, a mass ejector could be built to transport materials at very low cost into Earth orbit. Lunar craters are in effect giant open pit mines already excavated into the lunar crust giving us access to minerals and raw materials.
See, I'm not sure the fastest, or most efficient way even to do that would be by NASA. I think you'd be interested in this, its from 1998, and it's kind of interesting to see what they considered lofty aspirations ("large" projected costs, which, in today's trillion dollar bailout markets wouldve seemed like dips in the bucket), but more importantly she outlines that lunar settlement and exploitation is likely to arise from commercial enterprise. I believe she even states that initial space tourists will play a large roll in helping the beginnings of true lunar expedition.
Space Future - The Technical and Economic Feasibility of Mining the Near-Earth Asteroids
Once again, I'm far more in line with our current plan, but if we do renege on that and decide to shoot for the moon, i hope its along the lines of what she pointed out, not just a check handed to them like our previous administration (despite good intentions)
Mankind has never found sufficient reason to do anything if it wasn't financially profitable, and economically viable. A moon base would let us build on the economic viability of our efforts step by step, improving and developing techniques as we go right next door to our home base, Earth and LEO.
I believe, traveling directly to Mars will be at such a great expense that we will probably only make the effort once; if that. If we fail, and a crew is lost, we will never try again. The combined cost in treasure and loss of life will be found to not be worth the potential gain, as compared to the need for the practical application of resources at home on Earth to provide for our many, and unlimited needs.
(We've already "paddled" to the moon, many times) Twelve men have walked on the moon, and weÂ’ve landed there 6 times. We barely scratched at the surface, in that endeavor. We've done a geologic study by collecting rock samples, and tested a lunar rover. Our efforts on the moon don't that much exceed experimental practice flights of the first airplanes, let's say over open water between London and Paris.
See mate, while I've gotta/ agree there may be more potential for exploitation and discovery, consider those numbers. 12 Men, in more than half a century? Let's contrast this with relatively new ventures like SpaceX who already run LEO flights, or Space Adventurers, who already allow for space tourism (one can go to the ISS and stay there for a few days if you have the resources).
On top of that, why wouldn't we just use the industries we're investing in? That would be a win for both sides, and SpaceX has already shown potential and willingness to offer FAR cheaper flights than counterparts, and, ironically enough, even some previous US budgets.
I believe that the president is right in offering inducements to private industry and innovators/entrepreneurs to get involved. They were there all the time and giving them an “award" or a prize is the best way to get them to excel at what they already want in the worse way to do. As I said above if our ventures don't produce economically beneficial results they will not happen.
Agreed, I didn't even know commercial spaceflight had already gained such prominence in the late 90s until now, but after checking some of her notions out I can see many of her ideas working now with commercial industry.
The settlements in North America which (not to mention those in Central and S.A. by the Spanish which were ventures aimed at treasure and empire) were successful and were based on the profit motive; In N.A. I'm thinking here of the Mayflower (and it's sister vessel) and Plymouth Colony. It is roughly equivalent to the situation we are discussing here. The King of England wanted a presence (population) to represent the crown in North America, and offered land-grants to settlers. It was up to them to get themselves there. There were investors willing to take risks to finance settlers and "pilgrims" and their few belongings to make an attempt at establishing settlements.
The frailty of their ships were barely equal to the task of sailing the Atlantic, and the people poorly equipped to make a viable settlement once they arrived. Pioneers are made of sturdy stuff. Our politicians, unless they were driven by national survival, are not. I don't think we will ever make more than a symbolic political gesture to that goal if we first over-reach, and that is why, in the end, those who actually do settle Mars, will have first settled our own moon; sadly I doubt that will be the United States. Instead it will be a country with a real fire in their gut to be first at something magnificent. All highly speculative I know, but worth considering as an appraisal of where we stand regardless of political leanings.
FYI - I enjoyed reading your ideas on the subject. You seem to have given real thought to the subject.
That was a salient analysis, definitely not overly speculative in the least. I mean, we're talking about events that haven't happened yet so its gonna inherently require some of that.
I agree with you, an avoidance of overstretch is needed. I'm not that learned on the subject, but upon the limited reading i've done, and considering some of the former authors proposals, I don't think the situations are direct parallels. You're definitely correct in asserting that the ships and their denizens weren't as prepared as they should have been, but in our situation, private corporation is on par, if not superior to NASA in many regards. Nasa has always used private contractors, and thus their faculties are more than equipped to support commercial space enterprises.
Also, explicit in this plan is the goal of landing on NEA's first. If I am to take into account the above author's relatively strong analysis, then this seems like a better step in terms of economical and technological return.
Again, I'm no expert in Astrophysics or anything of the sorts, so I may be under or overestimating the potential for the moon or NEA's, but in most of the more compelling arguments I find that the implicit notion is ambivalence at best, and slight disdain at worse for NASA's relative mismanagement of its large economic inheritance.