National Debt No Big Deal? More Economists Unconcerned With Trillion-Dollar Government Deficits
he Congressional Budget Office estimates that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2019, which ended September 30,
was $984 billion. That is about 4.7 percent of the American gross domestic product, and fiscal year 2019 marks the fourth year in a row that the federal deficit increased as a percentage of GDP. Through 2029, if current spending trends continue, the CBO projects that the total national debt will reach $29.3 trillion, or 95 percent of GDP.
That sounds scary to a lot of laypeople. But more and more economists look at those projections, and shrug.
High national debt levels have long been thought to cause interest rates to rise.
Investors are supposed to demand higher returns for taking on additional risk, and national debt levels that are too high could stifle growth or trigger inflation. Yet, investors have remained eager to lend to the United States, without seeming to care how much it borrows. It’s been a safe bet. So far, we do not seem to be close to the “too high” threshold.
One thing that is clear: the modern national debt does not function just like a household debt, which is how it was sold as a campaign issue by the deficit hawks who pretended to care about deficit spending before Trump was elected. More national debt is not “bad” under any and all conditions, and less is not “good” under any and all conditions. It really depends on what you’re doing with the money. Try as I might to make it happen though, I don’t think “it’s more complicated than that” will ever really catch on as a successful campaign rally chant.