Logic riddle:

What is the probability her sibling is also female?

  • 25%

  • 33.33%

  • 50%

  • Not enough information to answer


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Prob(two girls | at least one girl)
= Prob(at least one girl | two girls) * Prob(two girls) / Prob(at least one girl)
= Prob(at least one girl | two girls) * Prob(two girls) / (1 - Prob(no girls))
= 1 * (1/4) / (1 - 1/4)
= 1/3

Or so google says. I never would've guessed it.

maybe they were adopted?
 
Without using Google, here is is how I arrived at 25%.

The girl could be the older sibling or the younger sibling. Assuming she's the older sibling:

G G (younger sibling is a girl)

G B (younger sibling is a boy)

B G (N/A)

B B (N/A)

That's one in four.

But I could be wrong.
Congrats on the first honest attempt to reason out the answer.

Now, reason through it again, knowing that ALL the possible "B B" permutations have already been eliminated, as you met a female.
 
Not enough info - she's probably lying because you look so scary.
50% otherwise.
 
Math is hard.
The only hard part of this type of mathematics is freeing yourself from preconceptions and mistaken assumptions. Understanding what information you have and don't have, and discerning what you can and cannot correctly infer from it.
 
A sibling can be either male or female

Probability is 50/50 it is a female

The sex of the other sibling is irrelevant
 

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