Lock downs can never work, can not end an epidemic, and kill more by making it last longer

[Moonglow]

The lock downs were only meant to last a month or 2.

There were 2 goals.
- Don't overwhelm the hospitals (flatten the curve)
- Buy time so we could invent some tools against the virus

Trump has been SCREAMING to open things up again!

Democrats are keeping things closed!

So OP is correct. A lock down does not stop the spread of a virus...it only slows its spread.

That is why humans have quarantined infected people and keep them isolated.

Nothing wrong with quarantines.
Quarantines work because they are quick.
Lock down do not work because unlike quarantines, they only slow things down, so the epidemic lasts longer and kills more people.
With epidemics, speed is off the essence.

I usually just burn tires in a circle.

 

[otto105]

Polio was once one of the most feared diseases in the U.S. In the early 1950s, before polio vaccines were available, polio outbreaks caused more than 15,000 cases of paralysis each year. Following introduction of vaccines—specifically, trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 1963—the number of polio cases fell rapidly to less than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s.

 

[Rigby5]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

What you say is true about any disease that has a really high mortality rate, like Ebola, but what you are describing is full quarantine, not lock down.
Full quarantine works as fast as possible, with total end of movement, contact tracing, and total isolation of the infected.
The problem with covid-19 is that we were not testing everyone, so missed that 90% of those infected were asymptomatic.
And that make Fauci think it was 10 times more lethal than it really was.
Lock downs are not like full quarantine because lock downs just try to flatten the curve a little, and that makes the epidemic last longer instead of ending it more quickly.
With epidemics, time is of the essence.

 

[DukeU]

Polio was once one of the most feared diseases in the U.S. In the early 1950s, before polio vaccines were available, polio outbreaks caused more than 15,000 cases of paralysis each year. Following introduction of vaccines—specifically, trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 1963—the number of polio cases fell rapidly to less than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s.

The number of deaths were on a steep decline before the vaccine was used/available.

 

[Rigby5]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

About 150,000.
That is because if we had done herd immunity deliberately and effectively in March, then only 50,000 would have died instead of 200,000.
And it is never going to be over until we stop the lock down and go with accelerated herd immunity.
If we wait for a vaccine in a year, that will be another 400,000 deaths.

 

[Rigby5]

Polio was once one of the most feared diseases in the U.S. In the early 1950s, before polio vaccines were available, polio outbreaks caused more than 15,000 cases of paralysis each year. Following introduction of vaccines—specifically, trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 1963—the number of polio cases fell rapidly to less than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s.

The polio epidemic of 1948 had peaked and was well over BEFORE any vaccine was developed.
It took over 8 years to develop the Salk vaccine for polio, so clearly vaccines are not and never will be the means of ending an epidemic that already hit. What vaccines are good for, is preventing new ones in the future.

 

[otto105]

Polio was once one of the most feared diseases in the U.S. In the early 1950s, before polio vaccines were available, polio outbreaks caused more than 15,000 cases of paralysis each year. Following introduction of vaccines—specifically, trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 1963—the number of polio cases fell rapidly to less than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s.

The number of deaths were on a steep decline before the vaccine was used/available.

 

[OldLady]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Did these so-called scientist comment on the Salk Vaccine for Polio....or was the herd mentality....

The last polio epidemic was in 1948, and the Salk vaccine for polio did not come out until 1957, so there was never a polio epidemic stopped by any vaccine. It was only herd immunity. The vaccine only prevented future epidemics. But even then, vaccines only help facilitate herd immunity really.

Link?

 

[OldLady]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

About 150,000.
That is because if we had done herd immunity deliberately and effectively in March, then only 50,000 would have died instead of 200,000.
And it is never going to be over until we stop the lock down and go with accelerated herd immunity.
If we wait for a vaccine in a year, that will be another 400,000 deaths.

Where did you get the figure 50,000 deaths?

 

[otto105]

 

[martybegan]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

A good question. you would have to quantify somehow the increase in other deaths due to avoidance of doctors, and the increase in suicides due to the increased isolation.

On the other hand you would also have to "credit" the lockdowns with decreases in automobile related deaths, and of workplace deaths.

 

[martybegan]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

What you say is true about any disease that has a really high mortality rate, like Ebola, but what you are describing is full quarantine, not lock down.
Full quarantine works as fast as possible, with total end of movement, contact tracing, and total isolation of the infected.
The problem with covid-19 is that we were not testing everyone, so missed that 90% of those infected were asymptomatic.
And that make Fauci think it was 10 times more lethal than it really was.
Lock downs are not like full quarantine because lock downs just try to flatten the curve a little, and that makes the epidemic last longer instead of ending it more quickly.
With epidemics, time is of the essence.

The lockdowns were justified in the first month or two when we didn't have a handle on the lethality of the bug and it's transmission rates.

Anything after June or so, however, is just the simple fact that once governments enacted the lockdown policy, they were wedded to it, and our current government types, especially those on the left, can't bring themselves to eliminate the restrictions until the risk is closer to zero than it will ever get before an effective vaccine is 100% distributed.

 

[Rigby5]

Polio was once one of the most feared diseases in the U.S. In the early 1950s, before polio vaccines were available, polio outbreaks caused more than 15,000 cases of paralysis each year. Following introduction of vaccines—specifically, trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 1963—the number of polio cases fell rapidly to less than 100 in the 1960s and fewer than 10 in the 1970s.

The number of deaths were on a steep decline before the vaccine was used/available.

Your figures are wrong.
The Salk vaccine was approved in 1955, but not widely available for several years.
And the epidemic started in 1948, so clearly trying to develop a vaccine to end an epidemic that already started, is a horrendously bad idea.

 

[Rigby5]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Did these so-called scientist comment on the Salk Vaccine for Polio....or was the herd mentality....

The last polio epidemic was in 1948, and the Salk vaccine for polio did not come out until 1957, so there was never a polio epidemic stopped by any vaccine. It was only herd immunity. The vaccine only prevented future epidemics. But even then, vaccines only help facilitate herd immunity really.

Link?

Polio vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Rigby5]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

About 150,000.
That is because if we had done herd immunity deliberately and effectively in March, then only 50,000 would have died instead of 200,000.
And it is never going to be over until we stop the lock down and go with accelerated herd immunity.
If we wait for a vaccine in a year, that will be another 400,000 deaths.

Where did you get the figure 50,000 deaths?

That is the usual estimate based on what we now know if an R0 around 2, and a lethality lower than flu.
The problem before is we were only testing those who has serious symptoms, so we did not know 90% of those infected were asymptomatic. Which means it was only a tenth as lethal as we had incorrectly assumed.
So you can figure herd immunity deaths would be similar to seasonal flu deaths, which also is ended by herd immunity.

 

[Rigby5]

The Salk vaccine as approved in 1955, but was not widely available for several years.

 

[Rigby5]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

A good question. you would have to quantify somehow the increase in other deaths due to avoidance of doctors, and the increase in suicides due to the increased isolation.

On the other hand you would also have to "credit" the lockdowns with decreases in automobile related deaths, and of workplace deaths.

No, the increase in deaths due to the lock down comes from the fact the epidemic has been continued much longer than it would normally.
The way to figure an epidemic is by its monthly death toll, which is about 30,000 for covid-19.
So if you aggressively apply deliberate herd immunity in the first month, and it takes a month to wipe it out, then you have 60,000 deaths and it is gone.
If instead you flatten the curve for a years, that caused 360,000 deaths, with no end in sight.
So clearly lock downs kill potentially an infinite number of people, way more than an optimal herd immunity.

 

[otto105]

The Salk vaccine as approved in 1955, but was not widely available for several years.

The Salk vaccine as approved in 1955, but was not widely available for several years.

 

[Manonthestreet]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Lockdowns can work, however they only have a real chance if the disease is so virulent that there are minimal asymptomatic or mild symptom cases.

You would have to add in a real serious mortality rate, i.e. 5%-10% to really force people to isolate, and the disease needs to be only contagious when a person is truly symptomatic.

In that scenario a lockdown and isolation of anyone in contact with known cases is the only way to stop a true decimation of the population.

Coronavirus Cases: 7,991,998
Deaths: 219,695

How many has the lockdown killed?

A good question. you would have to quantify somehow the increase in other deaths due to avoidance of doctors, and the increase in suicides due to the increased isolation.

On the other hand you would also have to "credit" the lockdowns with decreases in automobile related deaths, and of workplace deaths.

Auto deaths are up in MN. Pretty sure murder is up too

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

ONLY herd immunity has ever ended any entrenched epidemic.
Lock downs can not, have not, and ever will end any epidemic.
By stretching the time of any epidemic, locks downs always result in larger numbers of deaths.

Here are the experts.
Listen to them.

Wrong.

“It’s a complete myth that you can just let the epidemic rage, protect the vulnerable, and achieve herd immunity. What may happen is…you fill the hospitals, you fill the morgues, and then the next year it happens again,” he says. “You’re not going to get enough people infected to achieve herd immunity and therefore you’ll have done it all for nothing.”

Herd immunity alone won’t stop COVID-19. Here’s why.