“Let West try To defeat us on battlefield… We haven’t started anything seriously yet”: Putin

[para bellum]

I wouldn't be surprised, about T-55s. It seems that the Putin regime will try to somewhat escalate the war. Now, they are talking about Kharkiv oblast even so they weren't too active in creation their proxy local authorities there some time before.

I've been meaning to get back to this but was waiting for a little more clarity.

They want Kharkiv, but wanting and getting aren't the same thing. My magic 8-ball says "very doubtful".

They are conducting 'silent' mobilization in Russia. And they will have to arm these people. And my bet is they will get 'more junk' hardware than the regulars.

When it's actual Russians, they are getting better kit. At least the new "Tigr" Bn is getting AK-12's with modern sights. What they are NOT getting is modern AFV's. They are riding in old MT-LB's which are 60's era Soviet kit and not survivable against even the little drone-dropped grenades.

The LDPR get the junk because Putin doesn't care how many of them get chewed up- he doesn't have to answer for them to Russian mothers.

Except of that, there are some strange movements in Belarus.

I don't think there is much appetite in Belarus to take a run on Kiev. They have been sending ammunition trains and Tochka-U TEL's to Russia and asking Russia for advanced weapons in return, which is kind of a demand for some quid-pro-quo.

I think Lukashenko finds himself between a rock and a hard spot. He fancies himself as the intermediary between Europe and Russia, but Europeans aren't very keen on him and Erdo has kind of stepped into that role. So Belarus remains a question mark to me.

I do think we're at an inflection point right now. Zelensky's order yesterday signals the start of the counter-offensive in the south. Ukraine now controls the main Russian supply route between Kherson and Melitipol so any resupply of Kherson has to come through Crimea.

The Ukrainian leadership has been urging residents in Kherson to get out before the fighting starts, even if it means going through Crimea.

They blew up the main ammunition depot near the Kherson International airport, and the command center and main base at the Stadium. Russia has placed barges with radar reflectors at the support span on the Kerch Bridge as decoys- they know it's #1 on the AFU target list.

In the past 7 days, Ukraine has taken out at least 11 major ammunition storage sites. These are all large depots- like 20,000-30,000 metric tons of ammunition in each one. And a dozen command and control centers, and another dozen barracks/troop bases.

Russian artillery usage is about 10% of what it was 2 weeks ago across the entire battlespace. They are reduced to missile attacks on civilian targets, mostly using inaccurate missiles that weren't made for ground attack. They've even started repurposing S-300's for ground strike in Kherson. Like the KH-22's, the S-300 terminal guidance is useless- when the radar looks at the ground, it sees the ground- they can't differentiate ground targets like they can for ships and aircraft that stand out against the background. So they rely on inertial guidance only.

Watching Kherson with great interest in the next couple weeks. If Ukraine can exploit the tactical advantage they have created, they can remove those forces in Kherson from the Russian ORBAT proper. Then take out the Crimean bridge, cut off the water, and isolate the Russians there.

Then move on to Melitipol and start clearing Zaphorizia Oblast without fear of being flanked or attacked from the rear.

The training up of Ukrainian infantry is accelerating and the AFU is using the NATO weapons with great effect. HIMARS will be up to 12 launchers by the end of the week, and the M270's from the UK/Norway are either already there, or will be very shortly. And, a new batch of precision 155 ammunition is on the way.

The last 2 weeks is just the opening shots. I think the AFU is ready to press the offensive.

 

[Unkotare]

As we'd discussed many times Russia uses less as 10% of its active troops in Ukraine and is preparing to the war with NATO ( Poland, Germany, Romania, Baltic Lilliputians & Co ) in October, 2022
Ukraine became not more as secondary war place. The main goal of Russia now is to destroy NATO weapons which idiots send to Ukraine hoping clown Zelensky can defeat Putin

During a Thursday speech addressing Russian parliament officials, President Vladimir Putin warned that the military has barely started its operations in Ukraine – suggesting he sees a long haul fight possibly for the whole of Ukraine ahead – in a direct challenge to the West as it continues to send arms to Kiev.
It’s being widely viewed as one of the fiercest speeches and challenges issued to Western backers of Ukraine since he authorized the Feb.24 invasion. He said that “the West wants to fight us until the last Ukrainian” – which he called a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, before adding, “It looks like it’s heading in that direction,” and then put the world on notice that Russia “by and large hasn’t started anything seriously yet.”
“Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can you say here? Let them try,” Putin said, in a direct challenge to the US and NATO, though without naming them specifically.

Infowars Article

Infowars: There's a War on for your Mind!

www.infowars.com

 

[ESay]

Of course President Potatohead is trying his best to turn our military into ineffective queers and affirmative action idiots.

However, traditionally our military has much better training and much better leadership at the NCO level.

We can't brag about having great upper leadership any more. Just look at the idiots Potatohead had managing the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Talk about fuck ups.

Well, I don't want to indulge myself in your internal political affairs. To tell you the truth, I think that having to choose between Biden and Trump is disgrace for American political system.

I understand that the US is now in a period of social, political and economic troubles. But I hope that it finds internal reserves to find a way through these hardships.

Without the US, all the West is doomed.

 

[Flash]

Well, I don't want to indulge myself in your internal political affairs. To tell you the truth, I think that having to choose between Biden and Trump is disgrace for American political system.

I understand that the US is now in a period of social, political and economic troubles. But I hope that it finds internal reserves to find a way through these hardships.

Without the US, all the West is doomed.

Trump was a great American President. Best of modern times.

Potatohead is well, an idiot.

 

[ESay]

I've been meaning to get back to this but was waiting for a little more clarity.

They want Kharkiv, but wanting and getting aren't the same thing. My magic 8-ball says "very doubtful".

When it's actual Russians, they are getting better kit. At least the new "Tigr" Bn is getting AK-12's with modern sights. What they are NOT getting is modern AFV's. They are riding in old MT-LB's which are 60's era Soviet kit and not survivable against even the little drone-dropped grenades.

The LDPR get the junk because Putin doesn't care how many of them get chewed up- he doesn't have to answer for them to Russian mothers.

I don't think there is much appetite in Belarus to take a run on Kiev. They have been sending ammunition trains and Tochka-U TEL's to Russia and asking Russia for advanced weapons in return, which is kind of a demand for some quid-pro-quo.

I think Lukashenko finds himself between a rock and a hard spot. He fancies himself as the intermediary between Europe and Russia, but Europeans aren't very keen on him and Erdo has kind of stepped into that role. So Belarus remains a question mark to me.

I do think we're at an inflection point right now. Zelensky's order yesterday signals the start of the counter-offensive in the south. Ukraine now controls the main Russian supply route between Kherson and Melitipol so any resupply of Kherson has to come through Crimea.

The Ukrainian leadership has been urging residents in Kherson to get out before the fighting starts, even if it means going through Crimea.

They blew up the main ammunition depot near the Kherson International airport, and the command center and main base at the Stadium. Russia has placed barges with radar reflectors at the support span on the Kerch Bridge as decoys- they know it's #1 on the AFU target list.

In the past 7 days, Ukraine has taken out at least 11 major ammunition storage sites. These are all large depots- like 20,000-30,000 metric tons of ammunition in each one. And a dozen command and control centers, and another dozen barracks/troop bases.

Russian artillery usage is about 10% of what it was 2 weeks ago across the entire battlespace. They are reduced to missile attacks on civilian targets, mostly using inaccurate missiles that weren't made for ground attack. They've even started repurposing S-300's for ground strike in Kherson. Like the KH-22's, the S-300 terminal guidance is useless- when the radar looks at the ground, it sees the ground- they can't differentiate ground targets like they can for ships and aircraft that stand out against the background. So they rely on inertial guidance only.

Watching Kherson with great interest in the next couple weeks. If Ukraine can exploit the tactical advantage they have created, they can remove those forces in Kherson from the Russian ORBAT proper. Then take out the Crimean bridge, cut off the water, and isolate the Russians there.

Then move on to Melitipol and start clearing Zaphorizia Oblast without fear of being flanked or attacked from the rear.

The training up of Ukrainian infantry is accelerating and the AFU is using the NATO weapons with great effect. HIMARS will be up to 12 launchers by the end of the week, and the M270's from the UK/Norway are either already there, or will be very shortly. And, a new batch of precision 155 ammunition is on the way.

The last 2 weeks is just the opening shots. I think the AFU is ready to press the offensive.

I see your stance too optimistic. But who knows, we will see.

Yes, it seems that something is going to happen in Kherson. It is a strategic point for Ukraine. Liberation of Kherson virtually means closing the route on Mykolaiv and Odesa. Kherson is an 'easy' target for Ukraine, because Russian forces there are divided from main forces by the Dnieper.

Kharkiv? Don't know. Securing Kharkiv and oblast completely will mean direct strikes on Belgorod and oblast. And not only strikes.

Of course Lukashenko doesn't want to be dragged into the war, but he depends too much on Putin.

 

[ESay]

Trump was a great American President. Best of modern times.

Potatohead is well, an idiot.

Maybe. I won't argue about that.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Haha, I didn't notice that. They just discarded it. Maybe he was going home the next day, lol.

RPG-7's have a timer that detonates the warhead after 900m, so unless they somehow disabled it, all of those grenades would have detonated before coming back down. Talk about announcing you presence...

Survival Is Luck

In Vietnam, I was in the kill zone of a rifle grenade, which fortunately was a dud.

 

[Ringo]

The Russians piss poor conventional forces performance against a fifth rate military like Ukraine had begs the question of how they would do against a real military like most of the NATO countries have.

You're talking about NATO countries. who, after 20 years and trillions of dollars spent, just less then a year ago ran away from Afghanistan, losing their slippers, from the Taliban, armed with AK-47s? Oh, yes! A very scary military alliance!

 

[Flash]

You're talking about NATO countries. who, after 20 years and trillions of dollars spent, just less then a year ago ran away from Afghanistan, losing their slippers, from the Taliban, armed with AK-74s? Oh, yes! A very scary military alliance!

Joe Potatohead and his band of affirmative action idiots blew the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It should have gone much more smoothly but Potatohead's incompetence fucked it up.

As far as I am concerned we should have ended it at Tora Bora but blew it. If not then certainly after Bin Laden got it. No reason for The Worthless Negro to have escalated the war when it was not necessary.

 

[para bellum]

I see your stance too optimistic. But who knows, we will see.

They are in shock, another huge one today in Nova Kakhovka.

Strelkov is girking out again. He called Shoigu the Plywood Marshall, lol.

Yes, it seems that something is going to happen in Kherson. It is a strategic point for Ukraine. Liberation of Kherson virtually means closing the route on Mykolaiv and Odesa. Kherson is an 'easy' target for Ukraine, because Russian forces there are divided from main forces by the Dnieper.

The AFU can interdict the highway from Kherson to Melitipol, so Kherson has to be supplied by the bridge and the highway that goes south to Crimea.

Plus they blew up most of the Russian ammunition between Kherson and Melitipol and a bunch of fuel went up with it.

Kharkiv? Don't know. Securing Kharkiv and oblast completely will mean direct strikes on Belgorod and oblast. And not only strikes.

Of course Lukashenko doesn't want to be dragged into the war, but he depends too much on Putin.

There have been strikes into Belgorod ever since Ukraine pushed the Russian forces back to the border. And Ukrainian special ops in Bryansk going after the rail system, those are all fair game. The war is already in Russia, I don't worry about it now.

What's happening now is the Russian offensive has come to a slamming halt. There are little artillery exchanges and probes just to make sure the AFU isn't napping, but no attempts to take ground.

The estimates of ammunition usage in the Donbas was 2-3K/day for Ukraine, and 10x that for Russia. The Russian side says they were firing 60K/day, I don't believe that, but I wouldn't be bragging about it if I did.

An artillery tube is good for about 2K rounds at full charge. If they were firing 30K rounds a day at maximum range, that is the equivalent of taking out 15 artillery pieces a day. If you don't pull it out and give it a new tube, it won't hit shit, and eventually it will fatigue out and just blow up.

In addition to a serious lack of ammunition, 15 pieces a day for 30 days, is 450 artillery pieces that need reburbishing.

The attacks against the artillery logistics are designed to take the primary weapon out of the one kind of fight that Ukraine can't win. And the only kind of fight the Russians have shown any proficiency at. And they can't sneak up on Sloviansk through the trees, they will have to expose their armor. And you can outrange them with precision artillery when they try.

 

[ESay]

They are in shock, another huge one today in Nova Kakhovka.

Strelkov is girking out again. He called Shoigu the Plywood Marshall, lol.

The AFU can interdict the highway from Kherson to Melitipol, so Kherson has to be supplied by the bridge and the highway that goes south to Crimea.

Plus they blew up most of the Russian ammunition between Kherson and Melitipol and a bunch of fuel went up with it.

There have been strikes into Belgorod ever since Ukraine pushed the Russian forces back to the border. And Ukrainian special ops in Bryansk going after the rail system, those are all fair game. The war is already in Russia, I don't worry about it now.

What's happening now is the Russian offensive has come to a slamming halt. There are little artillery exchanges and probes just to make sure the AFU isn't napping, but no attempts to take ground.

The estimates of ammunition usage in the Donbas was 2-3K/day for Ukraine, and 10x that for Russia. The Russian side says they were firing 60K/day, I don't believe that, but I wouldn't be bragging about it if I did.

An artillery tube is good for about 2K rounds at full charge. If they were firing 30K rounds a day at maximum range, that is the equivalent of taking out 15 artillery pieces a day. If you don't pull it out and give it a new tube, it won't hit shit, and eventually it will fatigue out and just blow up.

In addition to a serious lack of ammunition, 15 pieces a day for 30 days, is 450 artillery pieces that need reburbishing.

The attacks against the artillery logistics are designed to take the primary weapon out of the one kind of fight that Ukraine can't win. And the only kind of fight the Russians have shown any proficiency at. And they can't sneak up on Sloviansk through the trees, they will have to expose their armor. And you can outrange them with precision artillery when they try.

There were already strikes in Belgorod, yes, but I didn't mean exactly what was there. Securing Kharkiv means turning Belgorod oblast in a war zone, like it is now in the Donbas or elsewhere. I doubt Ukrainian command is ready for that, despite their rhetoric.

Moreover, American and European officials made clear they don't expect the provided weapons be used against Russian territory proper.

 

[Ringo]

Each country has its own classification of strikes.
The main thing here is not to confuse:

The strikes on Kiev are a manifestation of barbarism.
Strikes on Donetsk — nothing at all. There are none.
Strikes on Damascus — restoration of democracy.
Strikes on Belgrade—protection of the population.
Strikes on Baghdad—the fight against weapons of mass destruction.
Strikes on the Gaza Strip — the right to self-defense.

 

[badger2]

They are not happy. The harvesting of a million males to die for the West rival's Jesus's sacrifice. Video @ 2h timepoint:

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1

 

[para bellum]

There were already strikes in Belgorod, yes, but I didn't mean exactly what was there. Securing Kharkiv means turning Belgorod oblast in a war zone, like it is now in the Donbas or elsewhere. I doubt Ukrainian command is ready for that, despite their rhetoric.

There is no need to invade Belgorod. The UA can push the Russians across the border and increase the counterbattery fires with precision guided and other "smart" artillery munitions that don't have to include HIMARS. That, plus capable air defenses to shoot down the missiles would do a lot to secure Kharkiv.

Ukraine has every right to defend her territory, and to respond to attacks from Russian territory in an appropriate and proportional manner. You can't just say "well, the attack came from Russia so there's nothing we can do about it."

Moreover, American and European officials made clear they don't expect the provided weapons be used against Russian territory proper.

We provided weapons to attack Russian warships in International waters, right? When someone shoots at you, it's okay to shoot back.

"Appropriate and proportional" will be the measure. We don't want Ukraine to be doing nightly HIMARS strikes on Russian targets, correct. But there is some wiggle room in the "agreement"- Crimea is green-lighted, even though everyone knows Russia will act like it's an attack on Russian territory.

Any concessions made to Putin means he will be back for another bite at the apple in a few years- and he won't be making the same mistakes next time.

 

[ESay]

There is no need to invade Belgorod. The UA can push the Russians across the border and increase the counterbattery fires with precision guided and other "smart" artillery munitions that don't have to include HIMARS. That, plus capable air defenses to shoot down the missiles would do a lot to secure Kharkiv.

Ukraine has every right to defend her territory, and to respond to attacks from Russian territory in an appropriate and proportional manner. You can't just say "well, the attack came from Russia so there's nothing we can do about it."

We provided weapons to attack Russian warships in International waters, right? When someone shoots at you, it's okay to shoot back.

"Appropriate and proportional" will be the measure. We don't want Ukraine to be doing nightly HIMARS strikes on Russian targets, correct. But there is some wiggle room in the "agreement"- Crimea is green-lighted, even though everyone knows Russia will act like it's an attack on Russian territory.

Any concessions made to Putin means he will be back for another bite at the apple in a few years- and he won't be making the same mistakes next time.

Of course, Belgorod (the city of Belgorod) won't be invaded. But Belgorod oblast, or more properly districts along the border with Ukraine, can be a place of hot war. I don't know whether it is possible to happen. But heck, who could have thought back in February that Ukraine would last through August and would talk about any counter-offensives.

The time will show. August is the month when a major counter-offensive should begin around Kherson, according to some Ukrainian officials. We will see.

Yes, there is no point of ending this war with Minsk III accords. I don't see any reason for Ukraine to sign any agreement with Russia. It will end up the same as the previous Minsk agreements.

 

[AZrailwhale]

Peter the Great opened a window to Europe, now the goal is to close it, because Europe stinks of fascism and perversions.

No. it "stinks" of success and prosperity.

 

[Ringo]

Civilian Men Are Trapped in Ukraine

Human rights and humanitarian NGOs should pay attention to Kyiv’s sex-selective martial law.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[badger2]

Time regained for Donetsk. AFU positions have been struck at Maryinka, one of the major launching sites for AFU rockets that kill Donbas civilians.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1

 

[Ringo]

 

[para bellum]

Time regained for Donetsk. AFU positions have been struck at Maryinka, one of the major launching sites for AFU rockets that kill Donbas civilians.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1

The AFU does not have "launching sites". The rockets are all mobile launchers.

Marinka was hit by incendiary munitions. That's an area attack, it wasn't targeting a particular position.

This what targeting a military installation looks like. Shakhtarsk, July 9.

HQ of the VDV 106th airborne division. Most of the deputy commanders of the 106th were killed save one who was severely wounded.

Colonel Sergei Kuzminov
Colonel Andrey Vasiliev
Colonel Maksim Kudrin

Toast.