Trade wars are like lighting a match in a dry forest—quick to start, slow and painful to put out. Trust between nations is hard-won and easily lost. And while tariffs and policy shifts can happen overnight, rebuilding alliances, stabilizing markets, and restoring public confidence can take years, sometimes decades.
America needs to prepare for some very bad times ahead. Most likely, higher inflation that will giveaway to a recession.
The fact that both the Trump administration and China both believe war is inevitable is more troubling than the economy.
In American we see an economic war and military war as totally separate conflicts. China does not.
This really is short sighted and stupid. Trump is an idiot. His economic ignorance knows no bounds. In his first administration he had a trade war with China and he got his ass handed to him. Paid out millions of dollars to farmers who were virtually destroyed through retaliatory tariffs and then China going to alternative markets like Brazil for crop production. Now Ihe wants to take that war to the whole world, what a fool.
I mean it is Elon Musk and his chainsaw all over again. Some of these tariffs were just not thought through. I mean a tariff really has one purpose, to protect domestic production. It has been that way forever. It was a huge complaint of the South in the buildup to the Civil War. They even called them, protectionist tariffs. So, we can own that, acknowledge its purpose. It ain't to raise revenue, way to regressive in that respect and best left unmentioned. But then again, maybe we have changed that much as a people.
But what production are you protecting when you are placing tariffs on coffee, vanilla beans, bananas. I got deep roots in the food industry, some say it is bananas that are going to be the straw that broke the camel's back. But seriously, you got any neighbors raising coffee beans? Just what are we protecting with those tariffs?
And manufacturing jobs? That one blows my flippin mind. At the upper end, I am thinking Boeing here, well they have had their struggles, but reciprocal tariffs out of Europe and Asia could absolutely cripple them. They got five thousand planes on backorder, but that could quickly turn to cancels. That is some high-end manufacturing layoffs on the horizon, and Boeing is just one example.
But yeah, maybe we bring back furniture production, and clothing. Furniture and textiles, boy howdy, them is the kind of manufacturing jobs we are going to get, and in the end, the ones we are paying for, through higher prices. I am here, in the heart of what was once the core, first textiles, then furniture. This area dominated the country in production. A lifetime of work, in "hosiery", as they say, even if it is making t-shirts. But most often, thread and yarn, or bolts. Or a lifetime in furniture, upholstery top of the food chain.
Those people were beat, from years of hard labor, or sheer boredom, you can figure out which is which. Bodies contorted, hands and fingers gnarled with arthritis. Jobs were flippin brutal. You ever been in a hosiery mill or on a furniture production line? Oh yeah, they will show you videos of the BMW line in South Carolina, but AFI, hitting it here in North Carolina. No, they don't want you seeing that. And no, these are not good paying jobs.