Israel’s Election Is Too Close to Call, but Still a Setback for Netanyahu

[EvilEyeFleegle]

Looks like Israel might be moving to the center a bit...a new Prime Minister seems likely:

After Tight Israeli Election, Netanyahu’s Tenure Appears Perilous


"Israel’s election was still too close to call Wednesday afternoon, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his chief rival, the former army chief Benny Gantz, a centrist, immediately commanding enough support to form a majority coalition, according to partial results and exit polls.
But Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party appeared to have come out ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud, giving a small third party the power to decide the outcome. And his avowed desire to force a unity coalition including both their parties made it likely that, if the projections held, Mr. Gantz would be given the first chance of forming a government."

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

Seems like the population may have gained some sense. Hopefully they get rid of that nutjob Netayoohoo.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Looks like Israel might be moving to the center a bit...a new Prime Minister seems likely:

After Tight Israeli Election, Netanyahu’s Tenure Appears Perilous


"Israel’s election was still too close to call Wednesday afternoon, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his chief rival, the former army chief Benny Gantz, a centrist, immediately commanding enough support to form a majority coalition, according to partial results and exit polls.
But Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party appeared to have come out ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud, giving a small third party the power to decide the outcome. And his avowed desire to force a unity coalition including both their parties made it likely that, if the projections held, Mr. Gantz would be given the first chance of forming a government."

Gantz has no chance of forming a left wing coalition and no chance of heading a national unity government. Either Liberman will reach a compromise with the religious parties and with Netanyahu and join a Netanyahu led right wing government or there will soon be new elections.

 

[EvilEyeFleegle]

Looks like Israel might be moving to the center a bit...a new Prime Minister seems likely:

After Tight Israeli Election, Netanyahu’s Tenure Appears Perilous


"Israel’s election was still too close to call Wednesday afternoon, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his chief rival, the former army chief Benny Gantz, a centrist, immediately commanding enough support to form a majority coalition, according to partial results and exit polls.
But Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party appeared to have come out ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud, giving a small third party the power to decide the outcome. And his avowed desire to force a unity coalition including both their parties made it likely that, if the projections held, Mr. Gantz would be given the first chance of forming a government."

Gantz has no chance of forming a left wing coalition and no chance of heading a national unity government. Either Liberman will reach a compromise with the religious parties and with Netanyahu and join a Netanyahu led right wing government or there will soon be new elections.

I don't think so..but we shall see. I think the Hardliners are out for bit..and the Centrists are in. Many think Liberman will go Gantz's way.

 

[Claudette]

The voters of Israel will decide.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Looks like Israel might be moving to the center a bit...a new Prime Minister seems likely:

After Tight Israeli Election, Netanyahu’s Tenure Appears Perilous


"Israel’s election was still too close to call Wednesday afternoon, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his chief rival, the former army chief Benny Gantz, a centrist, immediately commanding enough support to form a majority coalition, according to partial results and exit polls.
But Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party appeared to have come out ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud, giving a small third party the power to decide the outcome. And his avowed desire to force a unity coalition including both their parties made it likely that, if the projections held, Mr. Gantz would be given the first chance of forming a government."

Gantz has no chance of forming a left wing coalition and no chance of heading a national unity government. Either Liberman will reach a compromise with the religious parties and with Netanyahu and join a Netanyahu led right wing government or there will soon be new elections.

I don't think so..but we shall see. I think the Hardliners are out for bit..and the Centrists are in. Many think Liberman will go Gantz's way.

Highly unlikely. Gantz can't form a government without both the Joint List, Yisrael Beytenu, Liberman's party, and Liberman reiterated today that he will not join a coalition that includes the Arab parties. Alternatively, if the religious parties were to switch to Gantz, he could then form a government, but they have stated that they will not join a government that includes Lapid, who is co chairman of Blue and White.

The only way a national unity government, which historically does not last long, is if Likud were to join Blue and White, abandoning the religious parties which have been loyal supporters of Netanyahu for many years, so that is extremely unlikely. Furthermore, the right wing parties have today pledged their support for Netanyahu, so if a national unity government were proposed, it would have to be led by Netanyahu. The only way new elections can be avoided is if Liberman reaches a compromise with the religious parties and with Netanyahu and decides to join a Netanyahu led right wing government.

 

[Penelope]

Seems like the population may have gained some sense. Hopefully they get rid of that nutjob Netayoohoo.

Its dangerous when he can't be watched, he was missing in years 1999 through 2002.

 

[Olde Europe]

I don't think so..but we shall see. I think the Hardliners are out for bit..and the Centrists are in. Many think Liberman will go Gantz's way.

Liberman is an ultra-nationalist hardliner. If Gantz has to rely on him to form a secular coalition, and it sure looks that way, you may not find much of a difference between Gantz and Netanyahu in terms of "extremism". I find it hard to believe any such coalition could be formed, much less it holds for long, before the center-left and the ultra-right factions blow this whole thing up.

Whatever... I also wouldn't count out Netanyahu just yet. As I see it, he's fighting for his life (out of jail), and might still lure enough votes into his camp with unprecedented concessions to remain in power.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I don't think so..but we shall see. I think the Hardliners are out for bit..and the Centrists are in. Many think Liberman will go Gantz's way.

Liberman is an ultra-nationalist hardliner. If Gantz has to rely on him to form a secular coalition, and it sure looks that way, you may not find much of a difference between Gantz and Netanyahu in terms of "extremism". I find it hard to believe any such coalition could be formed, much less it holds for long, before the center-left and the ultra-right factions blow this whole thing up.

Whatever... I also wouldn't count out Netanyahu just yet. As I see it, he's fighting for his life (out of jail), and might still lure enough votes into his camp with unprecedented concessions to remain in power.

Liberman has said again today that he won't join a coalition that includes the Arab parties, so Gantz would have to get the religious parties as well as Liberman in order to form a government, but the religious parties have stated again they won't join a coalition that includes Lapid, so there is no way Gantz can form a government. Either Liberman will find a way to join a right wing government that is led by Netanayahu and includes the religious parties or Israel is heading back to the polls.

 

[Olde Europe]

Here's the situation, or the closest to what we can know about it:

With over 90 percent of ballots counted as of 6:30 a.m., Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and centrist challenger Benny Gantz’s Blue and White stood at 32 seats apiece.

In third place stood the Joint List, an alliance of mostly Arab Israeli parties, with 12 seats, followed by the ultra-Orthodox Shas and secular Yisrael Beytenu with nine apiece.

Bringing up the rear were the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (8), the nationalist alliance Yamina (7), center-left Labor-Gesher (6) and the leftist Democratic Camp (5).

The results would appear to give the Netanyahu-led right-religious bloc 56 seats and the Gantz-led center-left-Arab bloc 55. In the middle is Yisrael Beytenu, whose leader, MK Avigdor Liberman, has vowed to force Likud and Blue and White into a unity government.

The figures indicated that the deadlock from the previous elections on April 9 would continue, as both Likud and Blue and White failed to strengthen their positions. Netanyahu’s difficult situation was compounded by the fact that the right-wing bloc bled several seats to Liberman.

On Wednesday morning the Yisrael Beytenu leader told reporters outside his home that “there is only one option: a broad unity government.”

“The picture is clear and one seat here or there won’t make any difference,” he said.

The hawkish, secular Liberman stressed that he will not bring Yisrael Beytenu into a coalition with the Joint List, an alliance of mostly Arab parties, saying that would be “absurd.”

He similarly ruled out serving in a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties and asserted that there would not be another re-vote because there would not be a majority of MKs to dissolve parliament again.​

That means, no Arabs, and also no fundamentalists, in any coalition government involving Avigdor - assuming he's telling the truth about his intentions. There's one thing I do not understand: As it seems, Likud and B&W have 64 votes, well north of the required 61. Why Liberman thinks he can muscle his Arab-eating ultra-nationalists into that coalition is a mystery.

All that, of course, stands only in case there's no creative coalition-forming going on, and that's where Netanyahu and his behind-the-scenes horse-trading come in. I doubt Gantz has the same heft, and the willingness to go the extra-parsecs to gain power.