Is something on the order of 1964's election what we are cruising toward?

[yiostheoy]

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

I cannot imagine Trump bailing out.

Trump does not have the balls to bail out.

Trump is dug-in like a tick on a dog.

The dog is the GOP.

 

[320 Years of History]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

I know right now is a bit far out to say, especially with the three debates having not happened. I don't know what impact the debates will have, however, unless Trump somehow gets all of them structured so the moderators aren't permitted to "referee" and/or all the questions are given in advance, Trump can forget about doing well. If there's any legit real time fact checking going on during the debates and questions are unknown prior to the debates, Trump may as well hang it up right now.

I mean really. There's no way in hell he's going to do well against Mrs. Clinton in a debate. The most we can expect from Trump in a situation as I've described above is that he claim what is clearly as loss as a "win by dint of not have done as badly as he might have," or by Mrs. Clinton not having done as well as she could have, a la Ted Cruz and others whose losses were yet somehow "wins" during the primaries.

On the other hand, the debates offer three opportunities for Trump to make one absurd "off the cuff" remark after another for several hours at at time. I don't see that as a good thing for him. Hell, he's "so new" that I suspect Mrs. Clinton can prompt him into doing so right there in the course of a debate. The man's like a three year old; dangle a "shiny object" in front of him and he'll immediately reach right out and grab it.

If the debates go at all as I suspect they will (and they may not; I'm no psychic), the Presidential election will be a landslide, a big one.

 

[320 Years of History]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

Most of the predictions disagree with you however.

It looks like Hillary's win is going to monumental ... even astronomical.

i know what the predictions are. i check daily. i just thing the race will tighten a bit in the next 8 weeks.

It's fine you think that. You're sharing what you think in that regard and that's what the OP asks respondents to do.

You're ability to predict the future is as good as anyone else's. Tomorrow's not even guaranteed to you or me, and nobody would predict that I'll die between now and then, yet your or I, God forfend, surely could.

 

[Al Azar]

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

I cannot imagine Trump bailing out.

Trump does not have the balls to bail out.

Trump is dug-in like a tick on a dog.

The dog is the GOP.

I think he'd rather quit, blaming:

1) the election is rigged,

2) Hillary's cheating,

3) Democrats are evil, or

4) all of the above

than risk being humiliated on election day and historians laying at his feet one of the most resounding defeats ever recorded and delivering the mortal blow to the Republican Party. That would be hard to spin, even for him.

 

[320 Years of History]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

Trump's withdrawal from the race is an interesting scenario. You aren't the only one gleaning that maybe he's got that in mind. If he does have that option in the back of his mind, "everything" hinges on when he exercises it. Given all the discord in the GOP, there's little hope that the party can coalesce around one person and a VP pick in even the fewer than 90 days left before 8-November-2016, to say nothing of doing so in even fewer days.

 

[320 Years of History]

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

I cannot imagine Trump bailing out.

Trump does not have the balls to bail out.

Trump is dug-in like a tick on a dog.

The dog is the GOP.

I think he'd rather quit, blaming:

1) the election is rigged,

2) Hillary's cheating,

3) Democrats are evil, or

4) all of the above

than risk being humiliated on election day and historians laying at his feet one of the most resounding defeats ever recorded and delivering the mortal blow to the Republican Party. That would be hard to spin, even for him.

I don't really care what excuse/explanation he offers if he throws in the towel. He's such an embarrassing Presidential candidate that any reason is fine. I just wish he'd do it and give the GOP a chance to redeem itself to some degree by putting forth someone who is at least reasonably intelligent and thoughtful (both are essential; smart folks who don't think are no better than dumb people who simply aren't equipped to think well).

 

[Al Azar]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

Trump's withdrawal from the race is an interesting scenario. You aren't the only one gleaning that maybe he's got that in mind. If he does have that option in the back of his mind, "everything" hinges on when he exercises it. Given all the discord in the GOP, there's little hope that the party can coalesce around one person and a VP pick in even the fewer than 90 days left before 8-November-2016, to say nothing of doing so in even fewer days.

This would be uncharted territory. But regardless of how RNC rules dictate how the Republican Party would respond, don't the states have a say on whether a substitute candidate is eligible to appear on their ballots?

 

[yiostheoy]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

Trump's withdrawal from the race is an interesting scenario. You aren't the only one gleaning that maybe he's got that in mind. If he does have that option in the back of his mind, "everything" hinges on when he exercises it. Given all the discord in the GOP, there's little hope that the party can coalesce around one person and a VP pick in even the fewer than 90 days left before 8-November-2016, to say nothing of doing so in even fewer days.

This would be uncharted territory. But regardless of how RNC rules dictate how the Republican Party would respond, don't the states have a say on whether a substitute candidate is eligible to appear on their ballots?

It is indeed uncharted.

But we may be beyond the point of no return right now.

My guess is that the RNC needs a new convention ASAP.

But they are running out of time.

Reince/Reinhold if you are reading this then you need to get on the stick and off the can.

 

[yiostheoy]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

I know right now is a bit far out to say, especially with the three debates having not happened. I don't know what impact the debates will have, however, unless Trump somehow gets all of them structured so the moderators aren't permitted to "referee" and/or all the questions are given in advance. If there's any legit real time fact checking going on during the debates and questions are unknown prior to the debates, Trump may as well hang it up right now.

I mean really. There's no way in hell he's going to do well against Mrs. Clinton in a debate. The most we can expect from Trump in a situation as I've described above is that he claim what is clearly as loss as a "win by dint of not have done as badly as he might have," or by Mrs. Clinton not having done as well as she could have, a la Ted Cruz and others whose losses were yet somehow "wins" during the primaries.

On the other hand, the debates offer three opportunities for Trump to make one absurd "off the cuff" remark after another for several hours at at time. I don't see that as a good thing for him. Hell, he's "so new" that I suspect Mrs. Clinton can prompt him into doing so right there in the course of a debate. The man's like a three year old; dangle a "shiny object" in front of him and he'll immediately reach right out and grab it.

If the debates go at all as I suspect they will (and they may not; I'm no psychic), the Presidential election will be a landslide, a big one.

This must also be apparent to Reince/Reinhold. But R/R cannot do anything until at least one debate has happened.

 

[flacaltenn]

Moderation Message:

Thread moved to politics. Prognostications, Polls, and electoral map comparisons will inevitably make the thread a partisan discussion -- not a debate.

 

[oreo]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

American spectator sees something in this election reminiscent of 1964--but you can color Arizona & Georgia blue, as Hillary Clinton is leading in both those states.
You Wanted Trump, You’ve Got Him | The American Spectator
Watch out Donald Trump, Arizona Might Just be Going for Hillary Clinton
Poll: Clinton leads Trump in Georgia

These two states are deep RED states. Which indicate much worse than 1964. Utah, considered the most conservative state in the nation is in play now. Bill Clinton was spending time there last week campaigning.

The Clinton campaign has pulled adds in several battleground states--as their internal polling data is showing her with double digit leads, so that money and those adds will be going into red states that are in play.
Clinton campaign pulls ads from Colorado
Clinton pauses ads in Virginia in sign of confidence
Confident Clinton Pulling Ads, as the Trump Train Goes Off the Rails | RedState

Trump is losing states that Mitt Romney won.
Trump is losing all 10 of the states with the closest results in 2012

With this data, and 90 days to go before the election, I believe we may be looking at the first 50 state landslide victory in this Nations history. Of course, Hillary Clinton being the winner.

 

[JakeStarkey]

All 57 states of Crusaderfrank are in play.

 

[320 Years of History]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

Trump's withdrawal from the race is an interesting scenario. You aren't the only one gleaning that maybe he's got that in mind. If he does have that option in the back of his mind, "everything" hinges on when he exercises it. Given all the discord in the GOP, there's little hope that the party can coalesce around one person and a VP pick in even the fewer than 90 days left before 8-November-2016, to say nothing of doing so in even fewer days.

This would be uncharted territory. But regardless of how RNC rules dictate how the Republican Party would respond, don't the states have a say on whether a substitute candidate is eligible to appear on their ballots?

I don't know what role the states would have or be able to have in such a situation. Sorry. I'm sure I could look it up, but off the top of my head, I don't know.

 

[9thIDdoc]

Landslide for Trump.

 

[jillian]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

As nice as it sounds, i don't think it will be that huuuuge a win. as long as she wins.

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

Trump's withdrawal from the race is an interesting scenario. You aren't the only one gleaning that maybe he's got that in mind. If he does have that option in the back of his mind, "everything" hinges on when he exercises it. Given all the discord in the GOP, there's little hope that the party can coalesce around one person and a VP pick in even the fewer than 90 days left before 8-November-2016, to say nothing of doing so in even fewer days.

This would be uncharted territory. But regardless of how RNC rules dictate how the Republican Party would respond, don't the states have a say on whether a substitute candidate is eligible to appear on their ballots?

I don't know what role the states would have or be able to have in such a situation. Sorry. I'm sure I could look it up, but off the top of my head, I don't know.

as far as i know only the party picks its nominee. but each state sets the rules for who can be on the ballot in the general election. as far as i know there is a certain amount of time to decline a nomination and then the name has to be on the ballot.

i don't think trump will drop out. no one can make him drop out. he might just refuse to debate and do other things like say they're not being "fair" to him.

 

[owebo]

It will be a substantial win for her if Trump stays in the race and it looks to me like he's laying the groundwork to bail. If he does, it's a 1964- or '84- magnitude blowout.

I cannot imagine Trump bailing out.

Trump does not have the balls to bail out.

Trump is dug-in like a tick on a dog.

The dog is the GOP.

The tick is the GOP, and it's liberal.....

 

[NYcarbineer]

I don't mean literally 1964's election map and results, but rather something akin to the degree of dominance observed in that or other past elections.

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

If someone other than Clinton were the nominee it would be a 40+ state rout.

 

[JoeB131]

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

I think he'll lose all the states McCain lost, plus Georgia, Arizona, Missouri and Utah.

Unfortunately, he will still carry a bunch of states McCain took, which is sad commentary on our country. He's a Nazi and a Buffoon and shouldn't carry ONE STATE.

 

[Mac1958]

Just how bad do you think Trump's loss will be?

I'm terrible at predicting political stuff, but that doesn't stop me from doing it anyway.



My guess is that the debates will be the final turning point, the moment when Trump's abject lack of knowledge on critical issues and generally shallow thought processes will be on full display and undeniable.

I can see Clinton getting 350+ EV. The obvious variable here is if there is some October surprise from Assange or something like that.
.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Suddenly the liberals are BIG proponents of the Electora College. Don't count your chickens Libs.