IMF Top Economist: Worst is Yet to Come

[DavidS]

EXCERPT:

"The worst is yet to come," he was quoted as saying in Finanz und Wirtschaft as he noted how the banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy by hitting the carmaking industry.

"This is only the beginning," he added. "The risk exists that the data will get worse and worse, which would then lead to more pessimistic expectations and accelerate a fall in demand."

"It will take a long time before we go back to normal conditions."

Blanchard said the crisis should last for another year, but normal growth would return only in 2011.

Story here:

 

[xsited1]

I agree. However, normal growth will only return in 2011 if Americans vote out the liberals in Congress and replace them with fiscal conservatives. Otherwise, it could last much longer.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Of course it's going to get worse, we keep exacerbating the problem.

 

[Hum Dinger]

I agree. However, normal growth will only return in 2011 if Americans vote out the liberals in Congress and replace them with fiscal conservatives. Otherwise, it could last much longer.

Apparently there is no such thing as a 'fiscal conservative' in U.S. politics. There are people who lie about being a fiscal conservative so people will vote for them, but then spend like the fiscal conservative's worst liberal nightmare.

If you want fiscal conservatives in Washington, you have to elect liberals who are so scared of being accused of 'tax and spend' that the wind up being fiscally conservative.

 

[Againsheila]

I agree. However, normal growth will only return in 2011 if Americans vote out the liberals in Congress and replace them with fiscal conservatives. Otherwise, it could last much longer.

It will get much worse regardless. It can't do otherwise. I've been predicting this since the 80's. You can't send our jobs overseas, bring in foreigners to do the ones left here and expect America's economy to improve. Sooner or later, the people who've always been purchasing the goods are gonna run out of money. For the last 10 years we've (the consumers) been living on credit. You can't do that forever, sooner or later you have to pay the bills.

 

[dilloduck]

EXCERPT:

"The worst is yet to come," he was quoted as saying in Finanz und Wirtschaft as he noted how the banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy by hitting the carmaking industry.

"This is only the beginning," he added. "The risk exists that the data will get worse and worse, which would then lead to more pessimistic expectations and accelerate a fall in demand."

"It will take a long time before we go back to normal conditions."

Blanchard said the crisis should last for another year, but normal growth would return only in 2011.

Story here:

banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy

I love the way they put this

 

[Paulie]

"the worst is yet to come".

Only the idiots haven't already known this.

 

[Paulie]

If you want fiscal conservatives in Washington, you have to elect liberals who are so scared of being accused of 'tax and spend' that the wind up being fiscally conservative.

I think those are the Blue Dogs.

 

[Toro]

18 months ago, the IMF had no idea a recession was coming, let alone a full blown credit crisis, so you'll excuse me if I'm not exactly going down into the bunker.

 

[dilloduck]

18 months ago, the IMF had no idea a recession was coming, let alone a full blown credit crisis, so you'll excuse me if I'm not exactly going down into the bunker.

oh cmon---everyone and his brother knew that the housing bubble was gonna blow and it wasn't going to happen in a vacuum.

 

[Againsheila]

18 months ago, the IMF had no idea a recession was coming, let alone a full blown credit crisis, so you'll excuse me if I'm not exactly going down into the bunker.

I did.

 

[Toro]

oh cmon---everyone and his brother knew that the housing bubble was gonna blow and it wasn't going to happen in a vacuum.

The IMF put out a report saying that home prices were not in a bubble, at least not around the world, and that some countries, i.e. Canada, were cheap. I believe they said that the US was somewhat overvalued but not a bubble, though I can't remember exactly. I have it somewhere. I'll see if I can post it.

I track these things on a daily basis. I can assure you, two years ago, the IMF was gushing over how this was the greatest era of co-ordinated global growth in decades.

 

[dilloduck]

The IMF put out a report saying that home prices were not in a bubble, at least not around the world, and that some countries, i.e. Canada, were cheap. I believe they said that the US was somewhat overvalued but not a bubble, though I can't remember exactly. I have it somewhere. I'll see if I can post it.

I track these things on a daily basis. I can assure you, two years ago, the IMF was gushing over how this was the greatest era of co-ordinated global growth in decades.

At least they wanted people to believe that.

 

[Paulie]

At least they wanted people to believe that.

Exactly. It's unbelievably naive to think these guys didn't know this was coming, and that somehow only the Austrians were aware.

Greenspan followed Austrian Econ before he became a big wig, you can't tell me he didn't have any clue this would happen. He hob nobs with the guys at the IMF. All the elites in the establishment do.

We were set up, it's that simple. To claim the top dogs were all ignorant of the eventual outcome is ridiculous. There was ONLY ONE outcome, and we are witnessing it.

 

[Toro]

Exactly. It's unbelievably naive to think these guys didn't know this was coming, and that somehow only the Austrians were aware.

The problem is that the Austrians saw it coming 25 years ago.

 

[Paulie]

The problem is that the Austrians saw it coming 25 years ago.

That's not exactly a problem. Maybe the policy-makers should have listened?

They saw this particular housing mess coming as early as 2002. How come no one else did?

 

[dilloduck]

That's not exactly a problem. Maybe the policy-makers should have listened?

They saw this particular housing mess coming as early as 2002. How come no one else did?

They saw it----they had to position themselves so they weren't caught holding big chunks of the debt. Funny how they did that.

 

[editec]

Exactly. It's unbelievably naive to think these guys didn't know this was coming, and that somehow only the Austrians were aware.

Greenspan followed Austrian Econ before he became a big wig, you can't tell me he didn't have any clue this would happen. He hob nobs with the guys at the IMF. All the elites in the establishment do.

We were set up, it's that simple. To claim the top dogs were all ignorant of the eventual outcome is ridiculous. There was ONLY ONE outcome, and we are witnessing it.

WARNING! WARNING! DANGER! DANGER! Will Robinson..

Some of you people are beginning to sound like me when it comes to this issue.

Welcome to Conspiracy Theory Road, citizens.

Yes, it does rather stretch one's credibility quota, doesn't it?

For in order to believe that, we have to believe that the brightest people in the world of economics couldn't see that shipping millions of high paying industrial jobs off shore, and then lending enormous sums of money to the working class which have been losing purchaing power for the last fourty years wouldn't lead to SOME KIND OF INSOLVENCY problem, eh?

Of courrse if their real agenda was bankrupting the nation and it's working class (and investing middle class, too, BTW) to make them pliable to accepting their inevitable serfdom, and the gowing police state, then of course one doesn't have to believe that the master class is entirely incompetent.

But THOSE are our choices.

We either believe that all the Kings economists and bankers couldn't see what steel workers with 8th grade educations were warning me about in 1969, and that they had NO IDEA that those morgage backed bond ratings were total bullshit, OR one can believe that at least some of the master class knew EXACTLY what was going to happen.

Of course we all know that none dare call it conspiracy

 

[Paulie]

They saw it----they had to position themselves so they weren't caught holding big chunks of the debt. Funny how they did that.

Yeah, but see, that borders on conspiracy theory. So it's hard for people to grasp the concept.

We have Greenspan, who used to follow Austrian Econ before he became a big wig, claiming he had no idea this would happen and that it's all the fault of deregulation (which an Austrian would never claim, btw). He was responsible for lowering rates to 1% in 2002. He advocated people borrow their equity away. He PAVED THE WAY for the housing bubble.

Greenspan KNEW. It's impossible for him not to have. The only logical way he could claim ignorance is if he's suffering from Alzheimers.

 

[dilloduck]

Yeah, but see, that borders on conspiracy theory. So it's hard for people to grasp the concept.

We have Greenspan, who used to follow Austrian Econ before he became a big wig, claiming he had no idea this would happen and that it's all the fault of deregulation (which an Austrian would never claim, btw). He was responsible for lowering rates to 1% in 2002. He advocated people borrow their equity away. He PAVED THE WAY for the housing bubble.

Greenspan KNEW. It's impossible for him not to have. The only logical way he could claim ignorance is if he's suffering from Alzheimers.

It would be cool if he was on America's side. Hell--we need SOMEBODY on our side.