If These Numbers Are Right, You Can Almost Call Nevada For McCain Now

[The Paperboy]

From National Review:

Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in the post below about Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.

If Republicans were a lot more of the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.

In Clark County, "through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans."

"In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans."

Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its surrounding area, has 68.7 percent of the registered voters in the state. Washoe County, which includes Reno, has 18.6 percent of the registered voters in the state.

In Clark County, Democrats hold a 46.3 percent to 32.3 percent edge in voter registration. In Washoe County, the split is 39.2 percent Democrat, 38.7 percent Republican.

With those numbers, you would expect Obama to be ahead by a much wider margin. Unless that poll of the early voters was way off — and this pollster managed to reach roughly one out of every 43 early voters; think about that when you see a poll of 1,000 designed to represent a national voting pool of 120-130 million voters! — a considerable number of Democrats and independents/unaffiliateds in Nevada are voting for McCain.

Story continues here

 

[tymebeta]

Yes! I can feel the tides turning already. GO MCCAIN! You can put 5 in the maybe column baby!

 

[jillian]

Are you braindead? seriously?

wait. don't answer that.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Nevada: McCain vs. Obama

 

[Red Dawn]

From National Review:

Story continues here

I think McCain is going to take Pennsylvania. Maybe even New Jersey!

 

[Article 15]

Yawn ...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Florida: McCain vs. Obama

 

[DavidS]

That exit poll is completely incorrect.

Here's why:

1. Absolutely no poll in the country shows less than 85% support for their party. Not FoxNews, not IDB/TIPP, not the Republican leaning GWU/Battleground.
2. It's from the National Review
3. "The guy doing the exit polls"

Here are the numbers up to date:

2008 Early Voting

Scroll down for Nevada

Let's say both Obama got 85% of the Dem vote and McCain got 85% of the Republican vote and each got 15% of the opposite party's vote and the independents were split 50-50.

Obama would be leading McCain 58-42% in Clark County. And even bigger in Washoe County.

This "exit poll" is bogus.

 

[DavidS]

I think McCain is going to take Pennsylvania. Maybe even New Jersey!

You know, a lot of people in Harlem can really relate McCain... I think he's going to take it.

 

[The Paperboy]

Yawn ...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Florida: McCain vs. Obama

Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

 

[DavidS]

That exit poll is completely incorrect.

Here's why:

1. Absolutely no poll in the country shows less than 85% support for their party. Not FoxNews, not IDB/TIPP, not the Republican leaning GWU/Battleground.
2. It's from the National Review
3. "The guy doing the exit polls"

Here are the numbers up to date:

2008 Early Voting

Scroll down for Nevada

Let's say both Obama got 85% of the Dem vote and McCain got 85% of the Republican vote and each got 15% of the opposite party's vote and the independents were split 50-50.

Obama would be leading McCain 58-42% in Clark County. And even bigger in Washoe County.

This "exit poll" is bogus.

Can someone quote this so paperboy can see it?