The dangerous stupidity of the comments here is truly mind boggling...
I don't know, you aren't the swiftest, if you catch my drift.
... China will — if the U.S. encourages Taiwan to declare independence in violation of the “One China” policy agreed to decades ago, or arms Taiwan in a provocative manner, NOT have to invade Taiwan at all...
The Free People of Taiwan will make any declaration they wish, and we will give them the means to defend themselves against aggression by Lying Outlaw Slaver Regime of China, if we wish
... It can merely apply overwhelming pressure in any of innumerable ways. It takes 20 minutes for modern jet fighters to reach Taiwan from Chinese bases, and Taiwan ports can be blockaded...
If it is all so simple, then why all the whining? Taiwan waters are a very long ways from China's territorial waters. So, you are saying that the Lying Outlaw Slaver forces of Beijing will attempt an illegal blockade outside of their territorial waters against a peaceful neighbor?
... The entire Taiwanese Air Force and civilian jets can be destroyed or grounded in an hour...
Oh sure.
... The U.S. will probably not fight. Well, it may fight ... to the last Taiwanese...
I doubt they will need us, but, I'm not sure the fishing boats that China calls a "Navy" will do so well in what will immediately be the heavily mined waters around the Free Island of Taiwan. Rescue operations by other Chinese fishing boats will be very difficult in heavily mined waters, more likely the rescue boats will blow themselves up as well. If China wants to see a real Naval Blockade, filling the gaps between all those Islands in the First Island Chain bottles up the Lying Outlaw Slavers like slamming a cork into a bottle. And China isn't like us, they can't meet their food or energy needs without port access. I doubt these dumb Slavers are as dumb as you suppose, but, history is full of fools who were unable to properly count the costs of their evil intentions.
... Taiwan’s biggest trading partner is China. A million or so Taiwanese live and work on the Mainland. Taiwan’s military is filled with CCP spies. Taiwan is legally not recognized as a separate country — everybody would scream but nobody but a maniacal U.S. leader would consider physically fighting to defend its “independence.”
Good. You sound quite confident that the Lying Outlaw Slavers can do what they never in their history have done, ruled Taiwan.
... Chinese leaders don’t want the bad public relations...
One Pandemic, lots of lying and theft, lots and lots of environmental damage and several concentration camps too late for that...
., want an eventual peaceful unification...
Fake News Lies. The CCP has NEVER ruled Free Taiwan. Not even for a moment, over the last 70 years. They don't because they can't.
... , but nobody should under-estimate their determination in this matter...
Sure. They are quite "determined".
... Like with Hong Kong...
Taiwan is NOT Hong Kong. Hong Kong did not spend the last 70 ensuring that a fiery hell awaits Chinese invasion forces. Hong Kong is not surrounded by steep rock cliffs with small narrow ports that do not give themselves to amphibious landing forces, forces that China doesn't really have, by the way.
... China absolutely will not back down if the U.S. pushes matters to a breaking point...
If you are not planning a war of aggression against a peaceful neighbor, then their defense preparations are not a problem. If you are planning a war of aggression against a peaceful neighbor, then appeasement merely invites the agression.
They will fight. Western provocations causing such a Chinese reaction would be a disaster for Taiwan and the Taiwanese people...
The West is provoking nothing. If Taiwan wants to defend itself, we are happy to help. If that bothers the Lying Outlaw Slavers of Beijing that want to swallow their free neighbor, who they have wanted to swallow for 70 years, yet did not dare to, that's their problem.
... Should things come soon to a head, my guess is China will first start flyovers of Taiwan’s close-in waters...
And Taiwan will splash them, and lying outlaw China will not be able to rescue them.
... (which China considers its waters) ...
Lying Outlaw China considers a LOT of international and the territorial waters of others to be "theirs" is violation of the Law of the Sea Treaty, of which they are a signatory. But then they are Lying Outlaw Slavers, so no one should expect them to honor their treaty obligations. China thinks they are a big fish in a small pond and that they can walk all over the rest of the world, including the US. Lots of fools thought the same, to their own destruction.
... and then continue intimidating flyovers of Taiwan island itself — with hundreds of modern planes and tens of thousands of rockets ready to retaliate if challenged. This may indeed happen in the next period...
Sure. Just like decades ago, folks looked at spreadsheets of all the forces surrounding Israel, brave fighters outfitted with the very best in American Weapons and were sure that Arab forces conquering Israel was a done deal, and Israel wasn't even surrounded by a stormy strait and steep cliffs. Watch all your sure calculations go right to hell should the Lying Outlaw Slavers of Beijing be dumb enough to launch a war of aggression against their peaceful neighbor.
... The U.S. should stay the hell out of any domestic Chinese confrontation, because — in the long run — we absolutely cannot win...
If a conflict with China is inevitable, then holding the line at the First Island Chain will save many thousands of lives, the world over.
... Taiwan will be much the worse for our provocations...
"Our provocations" you speak with the lying tongue of the Lying Outlaw Slavers of Beijing, it's like they have their arm shoved so far up your ass that they control your lips. Taiwan isn't "attacking" China, it is defending it's shores, skies and free people from outside aggression.
If China needs a harsh lesson, the combined naval forces of The Quad can damn sure deliver it. If they think a Naval blockade is fun, well, when they suddenly can't get a ship of any size from international water to their easily blockaded coast, perhaps they will need some time to reflect on the error of their ways and prepare an apology to the world for deliberately loosing a pandemic and then trying to cover their crimes with a blizzard of lies.
They might think this is a great time for a war of aggression, me? I'm not sure. I think they might come to quickly regret it, and maybe much more quickly than they think.
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