CDZ How big of a hit for GDP?

william the wie

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
 

jwoodie

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
Economy Forum?
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
Economy Forum?
I want to avoid Ed B.
 

hadit

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
Yes, it's Bush's fault.
 

Derideo_Te

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
Economy Forum?
I want to avoid Ed B.
Isn't that what the ignore function is for?
 

Derideo_Te

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
I recall hearing from somewhere, probably NPR, that the next recession is only due in 2017. Having it start now could have a serious impact both politically and economically.
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
I recall hearing from somewhere, probably NPR, that the next recession is only due in 2017. Having it start now could have a serious impact both politically and economically.
It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
 

Derideo_Te

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
I recall hearing from somewhere, probably NPR, that the next recession is only due in 2017. Having it start now could have a serious impact both politically and economically.
It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
Yes, with the caveat that we are just speculating about the current conditions and the potential for an early recession.
 

Circe

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Are there other factors I have missed?

That data remains very poor from the Future?

I follow financial news carefully and I am not seeing any of this doomed-to-gloom except that there may be some drag from the West Coast port strikes, but they ARE settled now. The recovery proceeds right along, so far.

I myself worry more about Europe. If it crashes apart in a Euro-quake, that presumably would cause a world recession, but so far it's been declared dead several times, but isn't.

Then there is war. Things are unsettled, but I'd wait till something happens before declaring us doomed, particularly if it involves oceanic or river and rail transport........Doom is usually more spectacular than that.
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
I recall hearing from somewhere, probably NPR, that the next recession is only due in 2017. Having it start now could have a serious impact both politically and economically.
It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
Yes, with the caveat that we are just speculating about the current conditions and the potential for an early recession.
Agreed with another caveat. This is more likely to be a "growth recession" or stagflation that never becomes an official recession prior to 2016. While can kicking will not solve underlying problems it can make the next election winnable. We currently have 10-12 increasing return industries with their own version of Moore's law.

It's no secret that I am not a fan of the current generation of alternative energy sources and here's some examples of why I'm not:

In formula E racing batteries are beginning to get competition from both fuel cells and even more so capacitors.

Recycling energy from food waste and sewerage sludge is declining in price rapidly although currently still north of $100/bbl and that means almost all current alternative energy sources will be obsolete in 20 years or less and most in 10 years or less as witness how screw in fluorescent bulbs are being replaced by LEDs before market penetration reached 90%. I'm still replacing incandescent bulbs but with LEDs.

That rate of obsolescence is getting faster across the board and will be more severe in the next administration. That will hurt whoever is in office.
 

jwoodie

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It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
A strategic defeat for whom?
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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Are there other factors I have missed?

That data remains very poor from the Future?

I follow financial news carefully and I am not seeing any of this doomed-to-gloom except that there may be some drag from the West Coast port strikes, but they ARE settled now. The recovery proceeds right along, so far.

I myself worry more about Europe. If it crashes apart in a Euro-quake, that presumably would cause a world recession, but so far it's been declared dead several times, but isn't.

Then there is war. Things are unsettled, but I'd wait till something happens before declaring us doomed, particularly if it involves oceanic or river and rail transport........Doom is usually more spectacular than that.
Are there other factors I have missed?

That data remains very poor from the Future?

I follow financial news carefully and I am not seeing any of this doomed-to-gloom except that there may be some drag from the West Coast port strikes, but they ARE settled now. The recovery proceeds right along, so far.

I myself worry more about Europe. If it crashes apart in a Euro-quake, that presumably would cause a world recession, but so far it's been declared dead several times, but isn't.

Then there is war. Things are unsettled, but I'd wait till something happens before declaring us doomed, particularly if it involves oceanic or river and rail transport........Doom is usually more spectacular than that.
Not doomed but using economic models a quarter of a century or more out of date. Keynes was right about politicians using out of date economic models.
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
A strategic defeat for whom?
The 2016 winner of either party. DC engages in more detailed planning of the economy than most of the communist nations still remaining.
 

Derideo_Te

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Q4 has been revised down because of snow and other factors. Q1 and Q2 will be disappointing as well for the following reasons:

West coast port and refinery strikes will leave a long footprint.

River, lake and in the case of Boston harbor Oceanic transport in the northeast is largely offline or severely limited.

Road and rail transport in the northern states and Canada is disrupted.

Damage from spring flooding will be greater than normal.

Are there other factors I have missed?
I recall hearing from somewhere, probably NPR, that the next recession is only due in 2017. Having it start now could have a serious impact both politically and economically.
It will probably be like the Bush I recession without the Perot equivalent. That will result in a squeaker with no coattails with the Ds about an 11 to 9 favorite or thereabouts. That kind of outcome will hand reapportionment to the GOP in 37 states +/- 1 or maybe 2 depending on the size of the "we was robbed." effect of such a "victory". In other words a tactical victory that is a strategic defeat.
Yes, with the caveat that we are just speculating about the current conditions and the potential for an early recession.
Agreed with another caveat. This is more likely to be a "growth recession" or stagflation that never becomes an official recession prior to 2016. While can kicking will not solve underlying problems it can make the next election winnable. We currently have 10-12 increasing return industries with their own version of Moore's law.

It's no secret that I am not a fan of the current generation of alternative energy sources and here's some examples of why I'm not:

In formula E racing batteries are beginning to get competition from both fuel cells and even more so capacitors.

Recycling energy from food waste and sewerage sludge is declining in price rapidly although currently still north of $100/bbl and that means almost all current alternative energy sources will be obsolete in 20 years or less and most in 10 years or less as witness how screw in fluorescent bulbs are being replaced by LEDs before market penetration reached 90%. I'm still replacing incandescent bulbs but with LEDs.

That rate of obsolescence is getting faster across the board and will be more severe in the next administration. That will hurt whoever is in office.
When you think about the evolution of energy sources we are only now getting the best fuel economy from gasoline. You can go out and buy a new vehicle for under $20k that will give you 30+ mpg with a standard gas engine.

So yes, the evolution of technologies has accelerated and it is actually extending the life of old technologies while shortening it for the newer.

As to whether or not this will hurt the next administration is debatable. Both the legal system and the legislative system are stuck in the last century and falling further and further behind. They are hidebound by procedures, processes and most of all precedents that just don't have any relevance in a digital age.

The current trumped up "scandal" over the prior Secretary of State using "private email" is ludicrous. The content of any emails she sent or received to any government agencies is automatically captured on their servers. It isn't as though anything was being "hidden". There is nothing at all "private" about the internet either. If you use it you are giving away your own location and a great deal more besides. A subpoena will reveal the IP address of this post and every other post if it is broadly worded enough. The IP providers will give up the physical addresses for those IP addresses with another subpoena.

But try explaining to a judge the connection between an IP address and who actually "owns" it given that this post might have been made using the WiFi in a Starbucks. Even the lawyers are clueless. We has a bunch of legislators and regulators who don't have a clue about the technology trying to write law and implement it without having any actual knowledge of the subject matter itself.

So we are living in the ancient Chinese curse...may you live in interesting times.

Would I trade this for a simpler time in the past? Nope! Because I find all of this stuff fascinating. It has been my life for 40+ years and it keeps on evolving. I have no idea where it is going but I am glad that I was in at the inception so to speak. Gives me an insight and a point of comparison. When I was first working in the industry and people asked what I did no one understood what it was when I told them. My own father didn't think that it was going to be way for me to make a living for myself.

Yes, I am a living Geekosaurus. ;)
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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You think so? I worked on device computer circuits back when they used matching transisters.
 
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william the wie

william the wie

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I realize that I left something flapping in the breeze.

productivity is both deflationary and stimulates economic growth. The Cambridge school thought only in terms of high leverage real estate and did not realize that the dustbowl caused bad debt write downs in multiples of GDP far worse than the 2008 meltdown. So Fisher, Knight, Keynes and later Friedman assumed that equity, Fixed income assets and consumer debt worked the same way as real estate. When the drought ended in 1940 so did the great depression.

The economic models of DC are an encyclopedia of mislearned lessons of history.
 

Derideo_Te

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You think so? I worked on device computer circuits back when they used matching transisters.
The first mainframe I worked on had 24k of RAM and it was a brand new replacement for the vacuum tube computer they had been using previously.
 

Derideo_Te

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I realize that I left something flapping in the breeze.

productivity is both deflationary and stimulates economic growth. The Cambridge school thought only in terms of high leverage real estate and did not realize that the dustbowl caused bad debt write downs in multiples of GDP far worse than the 2008 meltdown. So Fisher, Knight, Keynes and later Friedman assumed that equity, Fixed income assets and consumer debt worked the same way as real estate. When the drought ended in 1940 so did the great depression.

The economic models of DC are an encyclopedia of mislearned lessons of history.
Agreed! The failed dogma that tax cuts stimulate job growth has been an utter disaster economically. There was more actual economic and job growth after the two largest tax increases in the 1990's. Giving away "free money" to the "job creators" is actually even more of a disincentive for them to invest in the economy than is giving money to the impoverished in order to get them to find a job. When tax rates were higher the "job creators" had to actually create jobs in order to make money. When it was handed to them on a silver platter in the form of tax cuts they just laughed and stuck it in their offshore bank accounts and took a long vacation with zero risk to themselves.

As far as bad debt goes the Wall Street Casino pulled off the largest heist of middle class wealth with the deregulated mortgage scam. We learned that lesson in the 1920's and then we were bamboozled into allowing to happen all over again between 2000-2008. The write downs of that bad debt are going to haunt this nation for a couple of generations to come IMO.
 

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