The Mirage That Will Be Q2 GDP

[Marion Morrison]

PS: The Bushes are dickheads.

 

[McRocket]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Global CEO optimism under Trump is north of 53%, that's the first time its ever been above 50%, ever. The best Obama did was 33%. US small business owners also the most optimistic they have ever been, ever, in decades, since they even started polling them.

Link?

www.google.com

Just as I thought...you made it up.

Another Trumpbot loser.

So noted.

Off to my ignore list for you. If you are going to claim economic facts that you refuse to prove - you are a complete waste of my time.


Have a nice day.

 

[BluesLegend]

Link?

Crybaby before the fact sez what?

They pray there is no link so they can go back to their pretend world.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Global CEO optimism under Trump is north of 53%, that's the first time its ever been above 50%, ever. The best Obama did was 33%. US small business owners also the most optimistic they have ever been, ever, in decades, since they even started polling them.

Link?

www.google.com

Just as I thought...you made it up. You are full of shit.

So noted.


Have a nice day....liar.

He didn't make anything up, are you in denial over there? What's going on?

 

[BluesLegend]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Global CEO optimism under Trump is north of 53%, that's the first time its ever been above 50%, ever. The best Obama did was 33%. US small business owners also the most optimistic they have ever been, ever, in decades, since they even started polling them.

Link?

www.google.com

Just as I thought...you made it up. You are full of shit.

So noted.


Have a nice day....liar.

^^^ ahahaha Marion what did I tell you

 

[Marion Morrison]

This will sting OP tomorrow like a bee, maybe a yellowjacket, because it will be recurring:

Ouch, I like that you rub salt in the left's wounds

I rub salt in my own wounds, if necessary. It draws the infection out.

 

[BluesLegend]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Global CEO optimism under Trump is north of 53%, that's the first time its ever been above 50%, ever. The best Obama did was 33%. US small business owners also the most optimistic they have ever been, ever, in decades, since they even started polling them.

Link?

www.google.com

Just as I thought...you made it up.

Another Trumpbot loser.

So noted.

Off to my ignore list for you.


Have a nice day.

You poor ignorant liberal, now that I suckered you into embarrassing yourself...Main Street optimism is on a stratospheric trajectory thanks to recent tax cuts and regulatory changes. For years, owners have continuously signaled that when taxes and regulations ease, earnings and employee compensation increase,” said National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) President and CEO Juanita Duggan.

 

[BluesLegend]

This will sting OP tomorrow like a bee, maybe a yellowjacket, because it will be recurring:

Ouch, I like that you rub salt in the left's wounds

I rub salt in my own wounds, if necessary. It draws the infection out.

I use a propane torch.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Looking at that chart, I was very blessed to have positive income in 2009. I was actually making money and buying a few things.

I didn't like it, but I took a job, because there was not much out there. No subcontractors were rolling down the road at all.

Many people didn't even have jobs. At the end of Bush, they milked the gas prices for everything they could, it got up to $4.26/gal here.

I got an offer, and I took it, and dealt with it for a while. After a few years, I was allowed to get back into my regular groove.

Bush and Clinton fucked the economy up bad.

 

[easyt65]

'Tomorrow, the US Department of Commerce will report its advance estimate of 2Q GDP which will be the long-awaited evidence that “Trumponomics” is working. The current estimates for the initial print run the gamut from 3.9% to over 5% annualized growth. Regardless of the actual number, the White House spokesman will be quick to take credit for success in turning America’s economy around.

...

Secondly, while the print will undoubtedly be a strong one, and not unexpected following a weak Q1 growth rate, the question is whether it is sustainable? A recent note from Goldman Sachs suggests some caution:

“An unusually large number of one-off factors appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, many of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns. As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.”

This is likely correct. As 2018 has seen a steady increase in trade tensions, and trade actions, between the US and its trading partners, we have already begun to see some of the negative impacts from those actions. Just this past week Boeing ($BA), General Motors ($GM) and Whirlpool ($WHR) all had disappointing reports with comments directly related to the negative impact of tariffs on their results. They are surely not going to be the last as the US has slapped tariffs on washing machines and solar panels in January, on steel and aluminum in March, and on US$34 billion of goods from China on July 6. Now, the administration is talking about another 25% tariff on close to $200 billion in foreign-made automobiles later this year.

Morgan Stanley also made very similar comments in their recent analysis about the unusually large number of one-off factors which appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, most of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns.

“As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.

The ‘stockpiling’ in exports could be responsible for 1.5 percentage points of our 4.7% 2Q GDP estimate. ‘Stockpiling’ also appears to be at work for US companies, albeit to a more limited extent. The inventory build in 2Q is tracking at +US$38 billion, versus a +US$10 billion rate in the prior two quarters. And what’s more interesting is the areas where those inventories are building, which have material overlaps with trade: electrical goods, machinery equipment, motor vehicles and parts.”

In other words, the contribution to Q2 GDP from inventories alone would be roughly 2.2%, or roughly 50%, of the total increase. Such would be the single biggest combined contribution since 4Q11 when the U.S. was restocking auto inventories following the tsunami-related shutdown of Japan.

These one-off adjustments are unsustainable and simply represent the pull-forward of demand that will be given back over the subsequent quarters. Following the economic reboot in Q4 of 2011, as Japan’s manufacturing came back online, the next five quarters averaged just 1.6%.'

The Mirage That Will Be Q2 GDP


In other words...the Q2 2018 GDP Growth will almost certainly be big when the initial numbers are released tomorrow.

BUT...as much as half of that GDP growth could be due to increases in inventories due to Trump's tariffs/the trade war fears.

Conclusion? Tomorrow's numbers will probably be a one off. The economy will probably go back to growing at it's tepid pace by year end - since it has since Trump took over AND since 2009.


Once again...I am neither Dem nor Rep.

So the snowflakes are so afraid of the pending GDP report, after Trump has already delivered the best economy in decades, that they have to launch pre-emptive emotional rants and attacks to try to discredit it before it is even released...

BWUHAHAHAHAHA....

 

[BluesLegend]

'Tomorrow, the US Department of Commerce will report its advance estimate of 2Q GDP which will be the long-awaited evidence that “Trumponomics” is working. The current estimates for the initial print run the gamut from 3.9% to over 5% annualized growth. Regardless of the actual number, the White House spokesman will be quick to take credit for success in turning America’s economy around.

...

Secondly, while the print will undoubtedly be a strong one, and not unexpected following a weak Q1 growth rate, the question is whether it is sustainable? A recent note from Goldman Sachs suggests some caution:

“An unusually large number of one-off factors appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, many of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns. As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.”

This is likely correct. As 2018 has seen a steady increase in trade tensions, and trade actions, between the US and its trading partners, we have already begun to see some of the negative impacts from those actions. Just this past week Boeing ($BA), General Motors ($GM) and Whirlpool ($WHR) all had disappointing reports with comments directly related to the negative impact of tariffs on their results. They are surely not going to be the last as the US has slapped tariffs on washing machines and solar panels in January, on steel and aluminum in March, and on US$34 billion of goods from China on July 6. Now, the administration is talking about another 25% tariff on close to $200 billion in foreign-made automobiles later this year.

Morgan Stanley also made very similar comments in their recent analysis about the unusually large number of one-off factors which appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, most of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns.

“As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.

The ‘stockpiling’ in exports could be responsible for 1.5 percentage points of our 4.7% 2Q GDP estimate. ‘Stockpiling’ also appears to be at work for US companies, albeit to a more limited extent. The inventory build in 2Q is tracking at +US$38 billion, versus a +US$10 billion rate in the prior two quarters. And what’s more interesting is the areas where those inventories are building, which have material overlaps with trade: electrical goods, machinery equipment, motor vehicles and parts.”

In other words, the contribution to Q2 GDP from inventories alone would be roughly 2.2%, or roughly 50%, of the total increase. Such would be the single biggest combined contribution since 4Q11 when the U.S. was restocking auto inventories following the tsunami-related shutdown of Japan.

These one-off adjustments are unsustainable and simply represent the pull-forward of demand that will be given back over the subsequent quarters. Following the economic reboot in Q4 of 2011, as Japan’s manufacturing came back online, the next five quarters averaged just 1.6%.'

The Mirage That Will Be Q2 GDP


In other words...the Q2 2018 GDP Growth will almost certainly be big when the initial numbers are released tomorrow.

BUT...as much as half of that GDP growth could be due to increases in inventories due to Trump's tariffs/the trade war fears.

Conclusion? Tomorrow's numbers will probably be a one off. The economy will probably go back to growing at it's tepid pace by year end - since it has since Trump took over AND since 2009.


Once again...I am neither Dem nor Rep.

So the snowflakes are so afraid of the pending GDP report, after Trump has already delivered the best economy in decades, that they have to launch pre-emptive emotional rants and attacks to try to discredit it before it is even released...

BWUHAHAHAHAHA....

Pre-emptive liberal butthurt is the most entertaining.

 

[Marion Morrison]

'Tomorrow, the US Department of Commerce will report its advance estimate of 2Q GDP which will be the long-awaited evidence that “Trumponomics” is working. The current estimates for the initial print run the gamut from 3.9% to over 5% annualized growth. Regardless of the actual number, the White House spokesman will be quick to take credit for success in turning America’s economy around.

...

Secondly, while the print will undoubtedly be a strong one, and not unexpected following a weak Q1 growth rate, the question is whether it is sustainable? A recent note from Goldman Sachs suggests some caution:

“An unusually large number of one-off factors appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, many of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns. As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.”

This is likely correct. As 2018 has seen a steady increase in trade tensions, and trade actions, between the US and its trading partners, we have already begun to see some of the negative impacts from those actions. Just this past week Boeing ($BA), General Motors ($GM) and Whirlpool ($WHR) all had disappointing reports with comments directly related to the negative impact of tariffs on their results. They are surely not going to be the last as the US has slapped tariffs on washing machines and solar panels in January, on steel and aluminum in March, and on US$34 billion of goods from China on July 6. Now, the administration is talking about another 25% tariff on close to $200 billion in foreign-made automobiles later this year.

Morgan Stanley also made very similar comments in their recent analysis about the unusually large number of one-off factors which appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, most of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns.

“As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.

The ‘stockpiling’ in exports could be responsible for 1.5 percentage points of our 4.7% 2Q GDP estimate. ‘Stockpiling’ also appears to be at work for US companies, albeit to a more limited extent. The inventory build in 2Q is tracking at +US$38 billion, versus a +US$10 billion rate in the prior two quarters. And what’s more interesting is the areas where those inventories are building, which have material overlaps with trade: electrical goods, machinery equipment, motor vehicles and parts.”

In other words, the contribution to Q2 GDP from inventories alone would be roughly 2.2%, or roughly 50%, of the total increase. Such would be the single biggest combined contribution since 4Q11 when the U.S. was restocking auto inventories following the tsunami-related shutdown of Japan.

These one-off adjustments are unsustainable and simply represent the pull-forward of demand that will be given back over the subsequent quarters. Following the economic reboot in Q4 of 2011, as Japan’s manufacturing came back online, the next five quarters averaged just 1.6%.'

The Mirage That Will Be Q2 GDP


In other words...the Q2 2018 GDP Growth will almost certainly be big when the initial numbers are released tomorrow.

BUT...as much as half of that GDP growth could be due to increases in inventories due to Trump's tariffs/the trade war fears.

Conclusion? Tomorrow's numbers will probably be a one off. The economy will probably go back to growing at it's tepid pace by year end - since it has since Trump took over AND since 2009.


Once again...I am neither Dem nor Rep.

So the snowflakes are so afraid of the pending GDP report, after Trump has already delivered the best economy in decades, that they have to launch pre-emptive emotional rants and attacks to try to discredit it before it is even released...

BWUHAHAHAHAHA....

Yep.

 

[Muhammed]

And to those of you who think that economy is growing strongly now? Then why was Trump SOO worried because the Fed is threatening to raise rates?

Trump worries that Fed will raise rates two more times this year, White House official says

Simple.

If the economy was strong...he would not care much. But since the economy still desperately needs low interest rates...he is VERY worried.

And well he should be.

Just a guess here, but, he might be concerned that too many increases in one year will slow down the economy. I mean, that's what increases do.
Under the Obama administration when the rate was near zero for 8 years, just the mention of an increase would drive the market down several hundred points.

That's exactly why Trump fired Yellen and gave the chair to Powell. The Trump tax cuts boosted the stock market but they tempered the stock market bubble by increasing the fed's interest rate.

He's being very careful with the economy because he knows it is still fragile.

 

[Faun]

4.1% for Q2. And Q1was revised upward to 2.2% from 2.0%. That’s good news.

 

[AntonToo]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Igonoramus, he “cracked” 4%+ Quarter 6 times.

 

[Faun]

Keep in mind Barry Hussein didn't crack 3% GDP in all of his eight years.

Neither has Trump so far. And the only time Bush did was when his real estate bubble pushed it north of 3%.

 

[Mac1958]

A majority of us will celebrate this good news and continue to hope for the best into the future.

 

[McRocket]

Overrated number (no doubt Trumpbots will blindly believe whatever their messiah tells them).

Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years


Must admit though...inventories did not rise (or were not reported yet - more likely). But a one yime export in Soybeans to China took up a HUGE chunk of today's GDP number.


Like it was stated in the thread OP...today's GDP growth number will almost certainly be a mirage.

 

[Marion Morrison]

GDP is 4.1 today, snowflake! Suck it! Obama's highest was 2.6.

GDP boom: It sure looks like Trumponomics is doing what Obamanomics couldn’t


Winning!

 

[Faun]

GDP is 4.1 today, snowflake! Suck it! Obama's highest was 2.6.

GDP boom: It sure looks like Trumponomics is doing what Obamanomics couldn’t


Winning!

LOL

Dayum, you conservatives sure are dumb, huh? You don’t even know the difference between quarterly growth and annual growth.

According to the BEA, Obama’s high was 5.1% for Q2 in 2014...

https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xlsx