HOLY TOLEDO! New poll has Trump at 32% WhoooooooooooooHoooooooooooooooooo!

[Claudette]

He's going to continue to surge as long as he keeps hitting on the issues such as illegals. I have to give him credit on that stance

I agree. He's obviously saying what those polled want to hear. He's saying what he truly believes which is more than can be said for those mouth breathers in DC and those he's running against.

I don't know if he'll make it but it will be fun to watch. LOL

 

[frigidweirdo]

In it, at one point he made a declarative statement which said that humans were essentially irrational beings.

You needed a book to tell you that? But really, even the book didn't get it quite right. People are stupid. Being irrational is just a side effect.

The point that was striking was that Hedges was not writing about the fact that SOME people are irrational which everyone knows. He was talking about people in general which he essentially implied was true of ALL people, at least at one time or another.

Let's use the modern day example. Climate change is a good place to start. Regardless of how climate change ultimately plays out, it's an undeniable fact that greenhouse gas levels have been rising since the industrial age and can scientifically attributed to human activity which is burning more fossil fuel at the very same time that we're collectively mowing down more forests even as industrialization is picking up and the world population is soaring which translates to more people engaging in the very activities which is raising CO2 levels. Yet the deniers won't have any of it in much the same way that the Catholic church would not pay heed to the heliocentric theory of the solar system. Same shit, different century.

I see it a bit differently. People are rational. They're also hypocrites. So often what they say they want doesn't match their actions. But if you can glean their actual motivations and goals, very often their actions will be explicitly rational toward them. And wildly irrational to what they said they want.

Take....Trump. Those supporting him hate RINOs and want a true conservative. Yet Trump has expressed support for single payer medicine, what these same conservatives have dismissed as communism and fascism. Trump has expressed support for limited amnesty. Trump has been a registered democrat.

By any rational standard, Trump is an obvious RINO by their own standards. Yet they still support him. Are they irrational? If their stated goal is taken at face value, you bet. But.....if they are sick of politics and politicians and want to express their dissatisfaction for a party they don't believe takes them seriously? Then their actions are explicitly rational.

They also like reality TV.

American Idol is 10th most popular on Fox, Hell's Kitchen (more or less Trump but a Brit in a kitchen not on stage) is 14th.

Hardly surprising that this new TV format "Politics Idol" or "Hell's politics" or "Trump nightmares" or whatever they'd repackage it as later on, is doing so well.

 

[Boss]

By any rational standard, Trump is an obvious RINO by their own standards. Yet they still support him. Are they irrational? If their stated goal is taken at face value, you bet. But.....if they are sick of politics and politicians and want to express their dissatisfaction for a party they don't believe takes them seriously? Then their actions are explicitly rational.

Yeah, fascinating, I've been wondering about this, too. The conservative base will reject a candidate who strays away from orthodoxy (I saw Fiorina being called a RINO yesterday), but the rules are clearly different for Trump and Trump alone.

I'd love to see some comments on that.

.

I think I can explain. First of all, Trump has addressed his changed positions and references Ronald Reagan's switching parties to illustrate how people change their minds over time. I think his supporters believe him when he explains his change of heart on abortion and other issues. It's as simple as that.

Most of the people supporting Trump are not Republican loyalists. They are fed up with the Republicans AND the Democrats. They are especially fed up with the PC Liberal Left who, quite frankly, want to act like petulant 7th-graders, both when governing and campaigning. The pinheads who would rather rant all day about gay rights, a ******* flag, or "blood shooting" comments instead of having a meaningful dialogue on the problems facing our country.

THEY ARE DONE! Got it? DONE!

In short... IF you are a partisan political hack... you got a BIG problem and his name is Trump!

 

[Mac1958]

By any rational standard, Trump is an obvious RINO by their own standards. Yet they still support him. Are they irrational? If their stated goal is taken at face value, you bet. But.....if they are sick of politics and politicians and want to express their dissatisfaction for a party they don't believe takes them seriously? Then their actions are explicitly rational.

Yeah, fascinating, I've been wondering about this, too. The conservative base will reject a candidate who strays away from orthodoxy (I saw Fiorina being called a RINO yesterday), but the rules are clearly different for Trump and Trump alone.

I'd love to see some comments on that.

.

I think I can explain. First of all, Trump has addressed his changed positions and references Ronald Reagan's switching parties to illustrate how people change their minds over time. I think his supporters believe him when he explains his change of heart on abortion and other issues. It's as simple as that.

Most of the people supporting Trump are not Republican loyalists. They are fed up with the Republicans AND the Democrats. They are especially fed up with the PC Liberal Left who, quite frankly, want to act like petulant 7th-graders, both when governing and campaigning. The pinheads who would rather rant all day about gay rights, a ******* flag, or "blood shooting" comments instead of having a meaningful dialogue on the problems facing our country.

THEY ARE DONE! Got it? DONE!

In short... IF you are a partisan political hack... you got a BIG problem and his name is Trump!

So you're confident that his views now are consistently conservative?

Also, how do you feel conservatives would react if he came out with two or three views that are not?

.

 

[Boss]

He's a joke, he is just doing this for notoriety and entertainment.

He doesn't need more notoriety... everyone on the planet knows who Trump is. Entertainment? I'm sure Trump could find much less expensive and more fun ways to entertain himself, let's be real.

That's what Trump is about--entertainment. He admitted to buying politicians on both sides of the isle. He's got the money to buy polling data too.

Oh shit! Well, you're in ******* trouble then since most morons look at poll numbers to decide what they think! If Trump has bought off all the pollsters, you're in for a long tough year! You best be trying to figure out how to hang on to the moron votes in your party before they start believing in the polls Trump's bought!

He knows you're all angry--and he's playing you like a fiddle--until he tires of it and drops out of this race.

Yes, we ARE angry... And I doubt seriously he is going to get tired of WINNING the presidency and drop out.... but I guess you have to WISH, right?

I could probably find about 200 hundred people within the next hour who DON'T know who Donald Trump is.

Go for it you Internet Warrior!

 

[Claudette]

By any rational standard, Trump is an obvious RINO by their own standards. Yet they still support him. Are they irrational? If their stated goal is taken at face value, you bet. But.....if they are sick of politics and politicians and want to express their dissatisfaction for a party they don't believe takes them seriously? Then their actions are explicitly rational.

Yeah, fascinating, I've been wondering about this, too. The conservative base will reject a candidate who strays away from orthodoxy (I saw Fiorina being called a RINO yesterday), but the rules are clearly different for Trump and Trump alone.

I'd love to see some comments on that.

.

I think I can explain. First of all, Trump has addressed his changed positions and references Ronald Reagan's switching parties to illustrate how people change their minds over time. I think his supporters believe him when he explains his change of heart on abortion and other issues. It's as simple as that.

Most of the people supporting Trump are not Republican loyalists. They are fed up with the Republicans AND the Democrats. They are especially fed up with the PC Liberal Left who, quite frankly, want to act like petulant 7th-graders, both when governing and campaigning. The pinheads who would rather rant all day about gay rights, a ******* flag, or "blood shooting" comments instead of having a meaningful dialogue on the problems facing our country.

THEY ARE DONE! Got it? DONE!

In short... IF you are a partisan political hack... you got a BIG problem and his name is Trump!

I tend to agree.

Lots of people are sick of both parties. Me included.

Trump is a breath of fresh air.

He's a billionaire so he can't be bought and he says what he thinks without all that PC bullshit the rest of the mouth breathing politicians are always spouting.

Is he perfect?? Hell no. He's going to say some things that folks don't like but is he saying other things they will like?? You bet.

Will Trump get the nomination?? Don't know but its will be interesting to hang around and find out.

 

[Boss]

So you're confident that his views now are consistently conservative?
Also, how do you feel conservatives would react if he came out with two or three views that are not?.

If you search my threads you will find many posts I've made about Conservatism as a philosophy and not an ideology. I believe this was epitomized by Reagan's "Big Tent" back in the day, and is what Trump has also tapped into. Conservatives, by and large, are not ideologues. This is not to say they don't have some ideological beliefs... libertarians and social conservatives have passionate ideological beliefs. It is their conservative philosophy which unites them under the proverbial "big tent" and they can accept their differences ideologically for the sake of this philosophy.

The Left and establishment GOP completely misunderstand Conservative philosophy. They have been indoctrinated with the belief that "Conservative" is an ideology and they have filled the ideological tree with all sorts of horrible and extreme examples to form a Frankenstein ideology they can do battle against with their "superior" Liberal ideology... or "moderate" ideology in the case of the GOP. Credit to their favor, it has worked brilliantly since 1992.

I have also written many threads saying what Conservatives needed was a strong voice who knew how to articulate Conservative philosophy and unite Conservatives once again... that voice seems to be Mr. Trump. He doesn't have the party ties, he is not in the pocket of the lobbyists and big corporations, he is his own man. He can very easily appeal to the silent majority... the half the country who never vote. This should scare the shit out of party loyalists... and I believe it does.

 

[Geaux4it]

It's a shame that conservatives are too stupid to be embarrassed,

because when the Trump pretend candidacy disappears it would be so much fun to embarrass his supporters.

What's embarrassing is your support of a failed Presidency. Mr Obama is seeing it right In front of him. Take your social engineering experiment and cram it.

-Geaux

 

[Skylar]

In and of itself, this spectacle may very well convince a lot of voters that conservatives are not fit to govern, and conservatives will have nobody to blame but themselves.

Seeing how MOST of the voters ARE Conservative, I don't see it convincing them they aren't fit to govern.... I DO see it telling liberals they can't govern because they lost their elections and have to go home... they won't be convinced they aren't fit to govern.

No, most voters aren't conservatives. Most voters are moderates and liberals.

We've been through this. You literally hallucinate conservatives that don't exist, and ignore anyone who self identifies as a moderate or a liberal as 'actually' being a conservative.

That's not how reality works.

Yeah, Corky... you need to learn how to read graphs... or maybe learn double-digit numbers.... 38% is higher than 34% or 23%.

Sigh.....in what world is 38% 'most americans'? We've done this dance before, slick. You lost. And we'll do it again. The majority of Americans are not conservatives. They are self identified moderates and liberals. 57% to 38%.

You know this. You pretend it isn't so. And reality doesn't change just because you close your eyes.

Sigh.....in what world is 38% 'most americans'?

The one where 38 is greater than 34 and 23.

Yeah, that math doesn't work. As it doesn't matter what you compare 38% to, its not 'most'. Most is at least half. And you don't have anywhere near those numbers. Meanwhile, moderates and liberals make up 57% of Americans.

Just FYI, 57% is 'most'. As in 'most Americans are liberal or moderate.' Or 'most Americans *aren't* conservatives'.

See how that works?

Yeah, we've been through this before... you want to lay claim to all the moderates as if none of them are conservative.

A self proclaimed moderate isn't a liberal or a conservative. But a moderate. How do we know?

We asked. These are self identified numbers. Much like your 'Lincoln campaigned on Abolition' idiocy, you're quite literally arguing your imagination. Where you pretend that you know more than folks do themselves about their own political ideology.

Um.....you don't. No matter how hard you pretend. And no, most Americans aren't conservative. And you already knew this.

 

[rightwinger]

Democrats better get ready! Thats not the only poll!

A dream for Hillary

Of course Trump will not win but he will cause enough damage to the other Republicans to make them unelectable

 

[DarkFury]

Democrats better get ready! Thats not the only poll!

A dream for Hillary

Of course Trump will not win but he will cause enough damage to the other Republicans to make them unelectable

You just keeping your hope alive idiot. And Trumps numbers are STILL going up..

 

[Boss]

A self proclaimed moderate isn't a liberal or a conservative.

Exactly, so why are you trying to lump them together with the liberals? IF we're going to divide three ways and use your data... which I don't agree with, btw... then there are more conservatives than either moderates or liberals.

But the thing is... your entire graph is prefaced on a falsification. You are comparing two measures and an ideology. Or two apples and an orange. "moderate" and "conservative" are measures... the third would be "extreme." Liberalism is an ideology. There are conservative liberals. Bill Clinton is a conservative liberal. How would he register on your graph? A moderate? He's not a moderate liberal and he's not an extreme liberal... he is a conservative one.

 

[dblack]

Seeing how MOST of the voters ARE Conservative, I don't see it convincing them they aren't fit to govern.... I DO see it telling liberals they can't govern because they lost their elections and have to go home... they won't be convinced they aren't fit to govern.

No, most voters aren't conservatives. Most voters are moderates and liberals.

We've been through this. You literally hallucinate conservatives that don't exist, and ignore anyone who self identifies as a moderate or a liberal as 'actually' being a conservative.

That's not how reality works.

Yeah, Corky... you need to learn how to read graphs... or maybe learn double-digit numbers.... 38% is higher than 34% or 23%.

Sigh.....in what world is 38% 'most americans'? We've done this dance before, slick. You lost. And we'll do it again. The majority of Americans are not conservatives. They are self identified moderates and liberals. 57% to 38%.

You know this. You pretend it isn't so. And reality doesn't change just because you close your eyes.

Sigh.....in what world is 38% 'most americans'?

The one where 38 is greater than 34 and 23.

Yeah, that math doesn't work. As it doesn't matter what you compare 38% to, its not 'most'. Most is at least half. And you don't have anywhere near those numbers. Meanwhile, moderates and liberals make up 57% of Americans.

Just FYI, 57% is 'most'. As in 'most Americans are liberal or moderate.' Or 'most Americans *aren't* conservatives'.

See how that works?

Yeah, we've been through this before... you want to lay claim to all the moderates as if none of them are conservative.

A self proclaimed moderate isn't a liberal or a conservative. But a moderate. How do we know?

We asked. These are self identified numbers. Much like your 'Lincoln campaigned on Abolition' idiocy, you're quite literally arguing your imagination. Where you pretend that you know more than folks do themselves about their own political ideology.

Um.....you don't. No matter how hard you pretend. And no, most Americans aren't conservative. And you already knew this.

People.

A self proclaimed moderate isn't a liberal or a conservative.

Exactly, so why are you trying to lump them together with the liberals? IF we're going to divide three ways and use your data... which I don't agree with, btw... then there are more conservatives than either moderates or liberals.

But the thing is... your entire graph is prefaced on a falsification. You are comparing two measures and an ideology. Or two apples and an orange. "moderate" and "conservative" are measures... the third would be "extreme." Liberalism is an ideology. There are conservative liberals. Bill Clinton is a conservative liberal. How would he register on your graph? A moderate? He's not a moderate liberal and he's not an extreme liberal... he is a conservative one.

You're kind of equivocating on the terms there, aren't you? Liberal and conservative are both measures, and they're both ideologies, depending on the context.

 

[Boss]

You're kind of equivocating on the terms there, aren't you? Liberal and conservative are both measures, and they're both ideologies, depending on the context.

Conservative is not an ideology, Liberalism is. Moderate, like conservative and extreme, is a measure. If the poll had asked are you conservative, moderate or extreme... may have been a completely different graph. But liberals don't like to be called extremists or radicals... it's what they are, but they don't like that tag so they call themselves Liberals.

THEY are the ones who created the Frankenstein ideology of Conservatism, which includes every undesirable viewpoint known to man and then some. Conservatism is a philosophy and it is actually the "moderate" philosophy to extremism. Moderates are people confused by the false Frankenstein ideology, they don't want to be associated with that but they are also not down with Liberalism so they define themselves as "Moderates" but their philosophy is mostly conservative.

 

[francoHFW]

Go Donald, blow up the Foxbot/hater dupe New BS GOP. ONLY GOPer I'd consider voting for. Says what he thinks and not bought off. If any of the others did, it'd be the end of the party lol...

 

[Camp]

Who took that poll?

 

[dblack]

You're kind of equivocating on the terms there, aren't you? Liberal and conservative are both measures, and they're both ideologies, depending on the context.

Conservative is not an ideology, Liberalism is. Moderate, like conservative and extreme, is a measure.

You're acting as if these words have only one meaning, but you know better.

THEY are the ones who created the Frankenstein ideology of Conservatism, which includes every undesirable viewpoint known to man and then some. Conservatism is a philosophy and it is actually the "moderate" philosophy to extremism. Moderates are people confused by the false Frankenstein ideology, they don't want to be associated with that but they are also not down with Liberalism so they define themselves as "Moderates" but their philosophy is mostly conservative.

Again, one can make exactly the same claims about Liberalism. And I can just as genuinely claim that most moderates don't want to be associated with the Frankenstein ideology of Librul, so they identify as moderates, but really they're mostly liberal.

I'm not making an "it's all wash argument", ideology is important, but you are equivocating on different definitions. There are ideologies, however murky and convoluted they may be, that we identify as Liberal and Conservative - often referred to as left and right wing. And there are the characterizations (measures) of liberal and conservative.

 

[Camp]

You're kind of equivocating on the terms there, aren't you? Liberal and conservative are both measures, and they're both ideologies, depending on the context.

Conservative is not an ideology, Liberalism is. Moderate, like conservative and extreme, is a measure.

You're acting as if these words have only one meaning, but you know better.

THEY are the ones who created the Frankenstein ideology of Conservatism, which includes every undesirable viewpoint known to man and then some. Conservatism is a philosophy and it is actually the "moderate" philosophy to extremism. Moderates are people confused by the false Frankenstein ideology, they don't want to be associated with that but they are also not down with Liberalism so they define themselves as "Moderates" but their philosophy is mostly conservative.

Again, one can make exactly the same claims about Liberalism. And I can just as genuinely claim that most moderates don't want to be associated with the Frankenstein ideology of Librul, so they identify as moderates, but really they're mostly liberal.

I'm not making an "it's all wash argument", ideology is important, but you are equivocating on different definitions. There are ideologies, however murky and convoluted they may be, that we identify as Liberal and Conservative - often referred to as left and right wing. And there are the characterizations (measures) of liberal and conservative.

Seriously, how can you expect to address someone who tells you conservatism is not an ideology but liberalism is and than goes on a wackadoodle misinformed rant.

 

[MarcATL]

By any rational standard, Trump is an obvious RINO by their own standards. Yet they still support him. Are they irrational? If their stated goal is taken at face value, you bet. But.....if they are sick of politics and politicians and want to express their dissatisfaction for a party they don't believe takes them seriously? Then their actions are explicitly rational.

Yeah, fascinating, I've been wondering about this, too. The conservative base will reject a candidate who strays away from orthodoxy (I saw Fiorina being called a RINO yesterday), but the rules are clearly different for Trump and Trump alone.

I'd love to see some comments on that.

.

I think I can explain. First of all, Trump has addressed his changed positions and references Ronald Reagan's switching parties to illustrate how people change their minds over time. I think his supporters believe him when he explains his change of heart on abortion and other issues. It's as simple as that.

Most of the people supporting Trump are not Republican loyalists. They are fed up with the Republicans AND the Democrats. They are especially fed up with the PC Liberal Left who, quite frankly, want to act like petulant 7th-graders, both when governing and campaigning. The pinheads who would rather rant all day about gay rights, a ******* flag, or "blood shooting" comments instead of having a meaningful dialogue on the problems facing our country.

THEY ARE DONE! Got it? DONE!

In short... IF you are a partisan political hack... you got a BIG problem and his name is Trump!

You're describing hard rightwingers, no Democrats or liberals in that depiction at all. Get real.

Sent from my SM-N910T using Tapatalk

 

[Statistikhengst]

OMG this has to be the wildest primary season. RINO'S are running for Extra Strength Immodium AD as I post this thread.

Kick it up notches unknown! Go Donny! Go Donny!



First big post-debate poll shows Donald Trump GAINED 7 points and sits at 32 Daily Mail Online

First major post-debate poll shows Trump GAINED 7 points from the previous week and has backing of 32 per cent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents

• Stunning result after Trump attracted criticism over debate performance on Thursday
• Trump has 32 per cent nationally among registered Republicans and independents who say they lean to the right
• No one is anywhere near The Donald, with Jeb Bush in second place at just 11 per cent
• Poll supervised by former Washington Post journalist and shows no one else in double digits

tinydancer - thanks for making the thread.

Here is the entire poll, including internals:

http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/150802_crosstabs_trend_v4_KD1.pdf

Michael Ramlet founded Morning Consult not long ago, it is a very fresh, new polling firm. Ramlet is a Republican.

Reid Wilson is now one of the big movers and shakers in Morning Consult, he gave up his good paying job at WAPO to join the firm and do the congressional coverage:

The Washington Post s Reid Wilson Joins Morning Consult To Launch Congress Section

Reid Wilson also wrote a scathing review of 2012 Republican polling:

GOP Grapples With Embarrassing Polling Failures - NationalJournal.com

The firm is very new, so the jury is out. I don't judge a firm by it's political affiliations, but rather, by its results, so I'll be very interested to see how Morning Consult performs in 2016, to say the least.


There were also presidential matchups in this poll, and the internals for Trump do not jive with other polls at all.

Clinton (D) 44 / Bush (R) 41, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton (D) 47 / Trump (R) 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton (D) 46 / Paul (R) 39, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton (D) 46 / Rubio (R) 39, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton (D) 48 / Walker (R) 35, margin = Clinton +13


Here are the internals for the Clinton vs. Trump matchup:

I boxed in some numbers that are critical benchmarks:

Female vote: Clinton +16 (Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012)
Male vote: Trump +5 (Romney won the male vote by +7 in 2012)

Seniors, 65 or older: Trump +2 (Romney won this group by +11 in 2012)
Latino vote: Hillary +27. This figure is very likely way too low, she is likely closer to +38-+40.
Jewish vote: Trump +7. Uhm, no. The Democrat will easily win the Jewish vote.
AA vote: Hillary at 75%? Nope. She will get around 90%, just like in the last 12 cycles, without fail.
Catholic vote: TIE. Possibly. Obama won the Catholic vote by +2
Evangelical vote: Trump +11 (Trump won the EV vote by +57, so this number is likely also wrong)
Region: Midwest: Clinton +10. Big number there.
Rural vote: Trump +7 - that is a big surprise. Usually, the R wins the rural vote by about +20.

2,029 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

So, while you are celebrating Trump getting to 32% in a poll by a Republican pollster, if you accept that data, then you must also accept that Hillary is still winning against all 5 GOPers pitted against her, and again, the results are coming from a Republican firm. Walker does especially poorly against her. All of her wins are outside of the MoE.

Again, thanks for making the thread!

Derideo_Te
AceRothstein
Nyvin
Luddly Neddite
rightwinger