Just to show how a small swing in one swing state can make the difference in this election, consider PA:
Biden won the state by only 40,000 votes, and it’s practically a must-win for Kamala. Now, she has alienated a lot of groups, from the working class concerned about inflation, to the industry involved with fracking, to Jews who support Israel and were dissed by her skipping over their governor because he is Jewish and she’s worried about pissing off the antisemitic Muslims.
Let’s take the Jews, since that’s the group I’m most familiar with. There are 550,000 Jews in PA. Let’s say 400,000 are voting age and voted, 300,000 for Biden and 100,000 for Trump in 2020. If just 10% of the Jews switch from the D to Trump this time, that’s a swing of 60,000 right there. That alone would win PA for Trump.
NOW consider all the millions of working class people, struggling with the high inflation created under the Harris Administration. Let’s say of the 13 million in PA, 10 million are working or lower-middle class - and 7 million voted, half for Biden. That means 3.5 million, and if only 2% - that would be 70,000 - switch to Trump this time, that’s another swing of 140,000.
This alone is a swing of 200,000 - and we haven’t even considered the fracking industry.
And Biden won by just 40,000.